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Ostrich December

Looks like I'll be under southwest flow aloft today, so that Gulf moisture, along with good CAA closer to the surface, should keep the temps from really warming from where they are now. Still sitting at 46 with overcast skies and a good northerly breeze.
 
Sleet coming off the mtns now! Wilkes/Surry. Watch out piedmont maybe north of Winston?
 
Slick as ****. Above freezing and warm road but sleet is ice! ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I really like that look, wow, ridging towards the NW territories combined with a -NAO could send a TPV flying towards us, and there’s just this lonely southern stream wave, I can see that working out View attachment 57698
Click to expand...

That WAR though....keeps fighting against cold.

At some point though in late December to early January, I just get the feeling the hounds will be released. It's like we're teetering on the edge.

1607965521046.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I really like that look, wow, ridging towards the NW territories combined with a -NAO could send a TPV flying towards us, and there’s just this lonely southern stream wave, I can see that working out View attachment 57698
Click to expand...

Yup; that's more or less what happened with the super weenie fantasy run the other day. Big lobe of the TPV pushed down and caught a southern stream piece at just the right time.
gfs_z500a_namer_fh120_trend.gif
In terms of realizing that down the road: the trends with the TPV are notably improving in the medium range. Note the shift more eastward towards Hudson Bay instead of NW Canada. This + improved high latitude blocking (-NAO improving in the above gif too; these two trends are closely related) helps the lobe stick around for a little bit, which sets up the number of close calls you're seeing in the longer range.
 
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