I love this "hanging hats" arguments, keep em coming
I doubt there will be widespread snow accumulation there. It's a cold air chasing moisture scenario. Most of the moisture will be gone by the time the cold enough air arrives to support snow. The mountains across TN/NC could see some flurries. WV could see some decent snow accumulations though.
I honestly believe the snowpack in Canada has more of an impact on us than in Siberia. Getting a bank of cold air on this side of the world matters more because the air travels a shorter distance and cools the Upper US, and if we can get a snowpack well into the US as well, a cold winter would be easier by that argument.
Yeah, I don't trust the Siberian snow cover idea much anymore and would like really like to hear other correlations versus the Siberian snow cover all the time. Also, we had Indonesian convection apparently mess us up last year, so any little thing could throw the perfect setup off.
I was only being funny. Someone around here has to have a since of humor
Looks like yours truly has fallen short lately; will work on it ... LOL ...
While I think the month ends up AN I'm interested in the middle of the month. The PV might try to slip until the hudson bay area and the pacific trough flatten a bit. While it still favors AN the potential is there for a front or 2 to slip into the region maybe even some type of wedge
Not climo, but climatological progression of La Niña winters... Their modulation of the NAM is s.t. our winters start out seasonable to cold in November and December and become progressively warmer as we get deeper into winter because on the whole, their quasi stationary forcing induces a Rossby wave pattern that interferes with the mean standing planetary wave configuration, which ultimately allows the polar vortex to intensify over the course of the winter >>> higher +NAO/+AO esp in/around February
La Ninas are notorious for unusually early season severe weather outbreaks especially over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys (Super Tuesday February 2008 for ex) due in part to the aforementioned warm up over the SE US late in the winter that leads to a very strong baroclinic zone over the central part of the country as Cp & arctic airmasses continue to flood the Pacific NW, northern Rockies, & upper Midwest which leaves a lot of potential barortropic (conversion of basic state kinetic energy into available eddy kinetic energy) and baroclinc energy conversion (conversion of basic state available energy into eddy available energy) to be had for any incipient disturbance that becomes entrained into this sort of pattern. Essentially the difference between barotropic energy conversion and baroclinic energy conversion is that the former (barotropic energy conversion) relies on pre-existing energy (derived from the kinetic energy of the background flow, very common form of energy conversion in the tropics, wherein there exists little-no temperature gradients (& thus little potential energy) & it's also observed in the mid latitudes due to waves leaning against the bgd shear (negatively tilted (NW-SE orientated waves south of the jet, north of the jet core, barotropic energy conversion actually favors positively tilted waves). Baroclinic energy conversion, one many are often more inherently familiar with, is a more fancy way of saying that pre-existing temperature gradients (which also implies density gradients) leave a lot of potential energy to be had and the Rossby Waves we observe on a day-to-day basis convert this potential energy into a more useable form (I.e Eddy potential energy) which is realized as a strengthening low or high pressure system (in a general sense)
our house nondoubt will. The wife likes to keep it at 62 all yearWe will have the AC on and off all winter.
I hope we flip back to cold when December arrives, when things starts to count
Been subtly preaching the same gospel for over a week, FWIW ...
Looks like a freeze tonight in N. Miss and W.Tenn...
Fuji blue sky with awesome midday shadows due to the sun angle. Paradise.
