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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

accu35 said:
Yeah your right, although i remember as a kid when Halloween was cold and parts of the southeast would see some snow up towards north Bama into mountains. Back then when Halloween was cold, the whole winter would be cold as well. I guess that was the norm back then.
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I want to qualify my "generally" -- I'm not including snow at Mt. Pisgah or Mt. Mitchell or Grandfather or Brasstown --- I'm speaking of low elevation snow that sticks ...
 
Storm5 said:
Sees 12z gfs and stretches legs...

First weenie run of the season !!!!
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Nothing like trick or treating on a snow sled.


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Still was high 70s-low 80s today, but that's just so much better than it being in the high 80s-low 90s with it sunny and humid. Now we'll get into the high 40s tonight and will be in the low 40s tomorrow night.
 
GaWx said:
I'll get back to you on this as I need a good bit of time to go further. I've done only January (using KATL as a proxy for the SE US) and had originally been using Jan as a proxy for winter as a whole since I had done only Jan in great detail. For Jan., every phase of it was colder when inside the circle vs outside averaged out (by 3-6 F..so it wasn't even close for any phase). I now want to add Dec and Feb and see how well this pattern holds. I don't have the time to do what I did for Jan, when I went day by day for several decades and analyzed KATL temp.'s vs MJO phase, including amplitude. I need to find another way to do Dec and Feb.

Last winter I studied phase 8 in Feb (KATL), and it actually suggested that outside the circle averaged colder than inside for phase 8 here:

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/february-discussion-part-ii.110/page-9#post-15986

So, to be honest, I'm already suspecting that at least Feb won't hold up as well as Jan.
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Awesome! I can't wait to see your results!
 
pcbjr said:
I want to qualify my "generally" -- I'm not including snow at Mt. Pisgah or Mt. Mitchell or Grandfather or Brasstown --- I'm speaking of low elevation snow that sticks ...
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Fair enough lol
 
the last few runs on the gfs in fantasy land... are almost comical... its a case of rushing the big pattern change way to fast... dont get caught up in that just yet.... yeah cooler for sure.... we can count on.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Reminds me of October 2014. N. GA (north of Atl) got snow showers on Halloween.
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Don't recall snow showers in CHA Halloween 2014... but that winter was golden. Very cold November. Warmish Dec, Normal Jan with one small snow event... then Fab Feb '15... with several snow events, the last one being an 8 incher. Also the last time CHA had single digit lows and any snowfall over 1 inch.
 
whamby said:
Don't recall snow showers in CHA Halloween 2014... but that winter was golden. Very cold November. Warmish Dec, Normal Jan with one small snow event... then Fab Feb '15... with several snow events, the last one being an 8 incher. Also the last time CHA has single digit lows and any snowfall over 1 inch.
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Except 14-15 was a weak NINO and we're pretty far removed from that this year :/
 
Definitely some fun looks in the long range, but got to get through this mini torch this weekend, highs right around 80 ! :(
 
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