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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Mr. Golf said:
We need amplification in the Pacific, otherwise we will torch!!! A jet from west to east won't get job done :(
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if the SER isn't crazy, we can still maintain seasonal temps to slightly above.. nothing suggests torch yet. (crosses fingers) Plus Canada is going into the deep freeze.
 
stormcentral said:
Someone explain why models keep shifting Invest 93L over Central America then back towards the Florida straits
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total guess, because I don't know ---- really.. but maybe it's the uncertainty of timing of this weekend's huge trough in the east.
 
Yes but most GEFS 00z models take it over into the Pacific. Theres another invest in the pacific i know but noticed shifting back and fourth past few runs and was just curious as to why. Nam shifted further south missing Florida
 
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Welp, i guess that is that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Euro is showing that, gfs isnt pretty in the LR, but cooler than the Euro. Maybe we can meet in the middle and hope for the best second half of November. As long as we get our cold in December with winterstorm chances then im good with that. You never know models could flip by tomorrow if they wanted to, but i wouldn't bet on it, LOL!!
 
Personally, I don't mind the look for November. So long as DJF end up Normal/Below.
;):cool:
 
Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen) but there's still hope for a change for the 2nd half of November only because that is beyond the range of the two week models.

Regardless and no matter what lies ahead for this winter. I'm just glad summer wx is finally over and I can enjoy being outdoors without sweating profusely. Even a warm winter like the last one (which I still don't expect because it is highly unlikely based on stats) would be way, way better than any summer ever can be. No matter what, it is good to try to "enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get" as one famous met likes to say though that is difficult in summer!
 
EV_WS said:
Personally, I don't mind the look for November. So long as DJF end up Normal/Below.
;):cool:
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December has the best chance out of the three to end up below normal based on NINA climatological progression, chances for a stereotypical blowtorch in February could skew the DJFM mean above-well above normal even if a majority of the 4 months are cool or seasonable...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Is this were January id ban you for all that ugly talk. Luck for you it's October
 
As mild as early Nov is looking, it could be a lot warmer just like last year was. KATL is progged to have highs averaging in the low 70s (where the muggy LOWS were just over 2 weeks ago) and lows averaging in the low 50s 11/1-4 or about 3 above normal. Last year, KATL averaged in the low 80s for highs and low 60s for lows for that period or 13 warmer than normal!

Check out 10/27-31: last year KATL averaged 85 for a high and 59 for a low or 72 for the mean. This year that period is progged to have highs average 63 and lows 42 for a mean of only 52.5, which is nearly 20 F colder!

Edited for typo.
 
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GaWx said:
As mild as early Nov is looking, it could be a lot warmer just like last year was. KATL is progged to have highs averaging in the low 70s (where the muggy LOWS were just over 2 weeks ago) and lows averaging in the low 50s 11/1-4 or about 3 above normal. Last year, KATL averaged in the low 80s for highs and low 60s for lows for that period or 13 warmer than normal!

Check out 10/27-31: last year KATL averaged 85 for a high and 59 for a low or 72 for the mean. This year that period is progged to have highs average 63 and lows 42 for a mean of only 52.5, which is nearly 20 F colder!

Edited for typo.
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This is a microcosmic view, limited only to Gainesville, FL, but hopefully it sends a message of hope to anyone despairing about the early November heat the models are showing.
The record high here for this date was 92º in October 2010.
November 2010 only had three days in the 60's; a few were in the 70's, but most were in the 80's. Well above normal.
December turned on a dime and was the coldest December on record for MBY - 16 freeze nights with many in the low 20's. There were also 6 other near-freeze nights, (35º - 33º) to boot.
So, with no crystal ball and not in any way suggesting a repeat, might I humbly suggest that it is not worth the angst to worry about mid-November models at this juncture.
Just sayin', FWIW ... :confused:
 
Early November was much worse last year than what this year is looking like. Honestly what I've looked at makes me wonder if the averages need to be bumped up, as things hold in the low-mid 70s (outside of a day or two) without much adjustment without a cold front to drop things. Above average, but is it really...
 
GaWx said:
This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen) but there's still hope for a change for the 2nd half of November only because that is beyond the range of the two week models.

Regardless and no matter what lies ahead for this winter. I'm just glad summer wx is finally over and I can enjoy being outdoors without sweating profusely. Even a warm winter like the last one (which I still don't expect because it is highly unlikely based on stats) would be way, way better than any summer ever can be. No matter what, it is good to try to "enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get" as one famous met likes to say though that is difficult in summer!
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JB occasionally will take advantage of this statement to tout a cold winter forecast & that's where I first heard this... Actually, when you break down the stats, there's really nothing significant to be said wrt a warm or cold November portending to a similarly warm or cool DJF in the southeastern US. Of the 59 -ENSO winters I analyzed since 1895, only 59% possessed the same temperature phases in November and the subsequent DJF in the southeastern US, these results aren't significant whatsoever considering 41% exhibited no signal or the opposite signs in the 2 periods. There's a lot more to it than a simple linear relationship w/ temperatures... Large-scale forcing, seasonal changes in the jet/planetary wavelengths, and alterations in said forcing, in addition to external stochastic events need to be given due consideration and probably explain a large proportion of the winters that didn't follow this paradigm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
JB occasionally will take advantage of this statement to tout a cold winter forecast & that's where I first heard this... Actually, when you break down the stats, there's really nothing significant to be said wrt a warm or cold November portending to a similarly warm or cool DJF in the southeastern US. Of the 59 -ENSO winters I analyzed since 1895, only 59% possessed the same temperature phases in November and the subsequent DJF in the southeastern US, these results aren't significant whatsoever considering 41% exhibited no signal or the opposite signs in the 2 periods. There's a lot more to it than a simple linear relationship w/ temperatures... Large-scale forcing, seasonal changes in the jet/planetary wavelengths, and alterations in said forcing, in addition to external stochastic events need to be given due consideration and probably explain a large proportion of the winters that didn't follow this paradigm.
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I agree that the correlation is rather weak (noting what Phil just posted) as I've even said, but if given the choice, I'd prefer Nov be cool rather than warm for two reasons: 1. I'd enjoy November, itself, more if if were cool no matter what the winter shall bring. 2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation.
 
GaWx said:
I agree that the correlation is rather weak (noting what Phil just posted) as I've even said, but if given the choice, I'd prefer Nov be cool rather than warm for two reasons: 1. I'd enjoy November, itself, more if if were cool no matter what the winter shall bring. 2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation.
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The point is the correlation may exist simply by random chance and may not be truly representative of physical processes that modulates and links such phenomena and observations... Henceforth, verbatim it's not worth hanging your hat on at all.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The point is the correlation may exist simply by random chance and may not be truly representative of physical processes that modulates and links such phenomena and observations... Henceforth, verbatim it's not worth hanging your hat on at all.
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Of course this is probably good news for the SE US as this November is starting to lean above normal barring a very impressive late month comeback
 
Webberweather53 said:
The point is the correlation may exist simply by random chance and may not be truly representative of physical processes that modulates and links such phenomena and observations... Henceforth, verbatim it's not worth hanging your hat on at all.
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I'm not "hanging my hat" on anything. Not even close. And if the winter should happen to be mild, everything will be fine from my perspective. Any winter wx, even mild, is far better than any summer wx imo.
 
Nothing about weather is textbook anymore! :(
 
GaWx said:
I'm not "hanging my hat" on anything. Not even close. And if the winter should happen to be mild, everything will be fine from my perspective. Any winter wx, even mild, is far better than any summer wx imo.
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Huh? I'm not trying to be mean or anything but you definitely have contradicted yourself here...
"This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen)"

"2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation."
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huh?
"This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen)"

"2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation."
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No, I'm not "hanging my hat" on it. That means "to depend or rely on something". You're reading too much into what I'm saying.
 
GaWx said:
No, I'm not "hanging my hat" on it. That means "to depend or rely on something". You're reading too much into what I'm saying.
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Lol no I'm not, to say that's not what I want to see at all in the first statement definitely says you were banking pretty heavily on early November for revealing the winter pattern... Anyway, forget about it. The what happens in November winter will remember statement was bogus and we should move on...
 
Today was probably one of the first times I've ever seen JB even so as make a post on Wxbell in advance of the winter that was exclusively dedicated to a warm winter analog (2005-06)... It was created wrt the QBO/Solar activity and its impacts on MJO amplitude and behavior (which I was made aware of last year at the AMS conference in January)... The current EQBO/low solar configuration (as i mentioned a week or so ago) is conducive to generally high MJO amplification because it decreases the on-equatorial, upper tropospheric static stability and makes the upper level wind shear more favorable for large-scale moist convection...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol no I'm not, to say that's not what I want to see at all in the first statement definitely says you were banking pretty heavily on early November for revealing the winter pattern... Anyway, forget about it. The what happens in November winter will remember statement was bogus and we should move on...
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You're still misinterpeting my thoughts. If I somehow had the magical powers to control it for winter prospects, themselves, I'd choose cool over mild for November for even just the weak correlation. For similar reasons, if Nov were to be warm, that doesn't in itself lead me to think the winter has a better chance to be cold. But at the same time, none of this means I'm "banking pretty heavily on it" to reveal the winter pattern either as it is only a weak correlation. Sometimes your word choice isn't the best. Sometimes mine isn't.

It is more like this. I'll make up some numbers to illustrate. Let's say that I'm thinking that a cold November means a 25% chance for a cold DJF. Then I might think that a warm November means a 15% chance for a cold winter. No "hat hanging" but I'd clearly rather see a cold November than a warm one for the not as small chance for a cold winter.
 
GaWx said:
You're still misinterpeting my thoughts. If I somehow had the magical powers to control it for winter prospects, themselves, I'd choose cool over mild for November for even just the weak correlation. For similar reasons, if Nov were to be warm, that doesn't in itself lead me to think the winter has a better chance to be cold. But at the same time, none of this means I'm "banking pretty heavily on it" to reveal the winter pattern either as it is only a weak correlation. Sometimes your word choice isn't the best. Sometimes mine isn't.

It is more like this. I'll make up some numbers to illustrate. Let's say that I'm thinking that a cold November means a 25% chance for a cold DJF. Then I might think that a warm November means a 15% chance for a cold winter. No "hat hanging" but I'd clearly rather see a cold November than a warm one for the not as small chance for a cold winter.
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Yes, your word choice wasn't very good... By me saying, "hang your hat at all" implies that you'd rather see one result over the other even if they aren't meaningful, which is clearly what you're doing here. In a general sense hanging your hat on something does imply that you'd lean heavily on one option over the other, but I purposely put "at all" at the end to generalize this to leaning towards one option or the other to any degree (which in this case is wrt November temps >>> SE US DJF temps). I would too but as I alluded to earlier does this really portend anything meaningful whatsoever if the results aren't significant at all. For example, the reality could actually be that a warm November is more favorable to a cold winter in the SE US, the random variation imposed by the historical record may not reflect this simply by random chance...
 
I love this "hanging hats" arguments, keep em coming:D
 
GaWx said:
You're still misinterpeting my thoughts. If I somehow had the magical powers to control it for winter prospects, themselves, I'd choose cool over mild for November for even just the weak correlation. For similar reasons, if Nov were to be warm, that doesn't in itself lead me to think the winter has a better chance to be cold. But at the same time, none of this means I'm "banking pretty heavily on it" to reveal the winter pattern either as it is only a weak correlation. Sometimes your word choice isn't the best. Sometimes mine isn't.

It is more like this. I'll make up some numbers to illustrate. Let's say that I'm thinking that a cold November means a 25% chance for a cold DJF. Then I might think that a warm November means a 15% chance for a cold winter. No "hat hanging" but I'd clearly rather see a cold November than a warm one for the not as small chance for a cold winter.
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It also really comes down to a matter of interpretation of the historical record. I think you're viewing it too strictly, for every set of bgd climate states, there's a large range of potential solutions, what we see over the record is only one deterministic solution, equivalent to a deterministic model run and it's concomitant ensemble
 
accu35 said:
I love this "hanging hats" arguments, keep em coming:D
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I appreciate you enjoying our "hanging hats" discussion, but I'm now hanging my hat on us not keeping it coming because I think Webb and I agree that's enough for now. ;)

Besides if we get the mild winter some are forecasting, we may not even need our hats!
 
NWMSGuy said:
What type of snowpack would we need to see from our Northern states to have any meaningful impact on our southeastern weather? Wasn’t sure how plausible that was, especially in a Nina year.
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The snowpack would have to be across the Ohio River, down towards the Tennessee River and towards the Plains for the snowpack to have an impact on the southeastern states.

Snowpack helps keep the temperatures from moderating. Overall, the snowpack doesn't have a significant impact on the weather (does not affect the weather patterns.)

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today was probably one of the first times I've ever seen JB even so as make a post on Wxbell in advance of the winter that was exclusively dedicated to a warm winter analog (2005-06)... It was created wrt the QBO/Solar activity and its impacts on MJO amplitude and behavior (which I was made aware of last year at the AMS conference in January)... The current EQBO/low solar configuration (as i mentioned a week or so ago) is conducive to generally high MJO amplification because it decreases the on-equatorial, upper tropospheric static stability and makes the upper level wind shear more favorable for large-scale moist convection...
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That's actually refreshing to me for JB to do that for a change, but it of course remains to be seen where JB goes from here and how much weight he gives that season. What's tricky is that DJF 2005-6 came in much more like the average strong El Nino rather than La Nina! Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he already issue a preliminary forecast that is La Ninaish and near the exact opposite of the 2005-6 pattern? Fwwi, Nov of 2005 was warm in the SE and in most of the country.
 
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GaWx said:
I appreciate you enjoying our "hanging hats" discussion, but I'm now hanging my hat on us not keeping it coming because I think Webb and I agree that's enough for now. ;)

Besides if we get the mild winter some are forecasting, we may not even need our hats!
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... and I thought my little post earlier today about a warm November 2010 might cause some reaction ... :eek:
 
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