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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

GaWx said:
Not a good sign for winter as per others. Snow near Halloween. :(
Otherwise, congratulations! That truly is a rarity in the ATL area this early. Wow! And the cold, itself, is certainly impressive. Like night and day vs this time in 2016!
It is currently only in the 50s in S GA and in N FL, as noted in Phil's map above, with sunny skies. It isn't too often to see that in late Oct! Looking forward to today's walk!
Upper 30s tonight much of S GA/N FL, which is almost as cold as O'hare is this morning! Talk about direct transport of cold air!
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I remember Oct was really cold growing up, and the winters were great. I just dont get why a cold Oct would bring warm winter, i think if anything its a good sign for a cold winter like it was growing up.
 
accu35 said:
I remember Oct was really cold growing up, and the winters were great. I just dont get why a cold Oct would bring warm winter, i think if anything its a good sign for a cold winter like it was growing up.
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Actually, this Oct as a whole is going to end up quite warm. So, not good news, accu? :(
 
GaWx said:
Actually, this Oct as a whole is going to end up quite warm. So, not good news, accu? :(
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Today has to be one of the coldest October days in years. Hard to believe we are colder than all of last December.
 
Ugh here we go again with this nonsense... Can we all just agree these attempts to linearize short term weather and climate variability are crap unless a lot of context and a physical mechanism are provided. Going so far as to say a cold October, what happens in November the winter will remember, snow on Halloween or what have you is simply not enough to consistently and accurately gauge the upcoming winter these events are merely random variation unless background forcing is superimposed onto them & even then there's certainly a legitimate possibility that said event or phenomena in x bgd has no significant bearing on the winter. I totally understand the fun involved in speculating about these things I just want to make sure we're hanging our hats on actual science
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ugh here we go again with this nonsense... Can we all just agree these attempts to linearize short term weather and climate variability are crap unless a lot of context and a physical mechanism are provided. Going so far as to say a cold October, what happens in November the winter will remember, snow on Halloween or what have you is simply not enough to consistently and accurately gauge the upcoming winter these events are merely random variation unless background forcing is superimposed onto them & even then there's certainly a legitimate possibility that said event or phenomena in x bgd has no significant bearing on the winter. I totally understand the fun involved in speculating about these things I just want to make sure we're hanging our hats on actual science
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Agree, wholeheartedly, but ... a lifetime of observations is worth something as well ... :confused:
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't disagree that those are important but they need context or else the predictions they offer are no better than flipping a coin
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Webb,
I'm on my way out to enjoy the weather. so I need to be quick. I never made a prediction - just offered a personal observation. Simply FWIW.
Enjoy your day; I will mine!
;)
Best!
Phil
 
I'm just having fun with this Oct stuff. :) Also, I'm done at least for now with serious discussion about what November wx portends, if anything, for winter cold/warm/near normal/whatever chances. I'm just enjoying the current weather. Make it a great day! I'll worry about winter when it gets here. And no matter what the winter gives us, I predict it will be way, way better than the best summer can give us. So, I really will never need to worry about winter. I mean I survived last winter without any problem even if it wasn't what I preferred.
 
Funny thing is, with this cold-ish end to October it's going to end up averaging about what last year's October did haha.
 
GaWx said:
I'm just having fun with this Oct stuff. :) Also, I'm done at least for now with serious discussion about what November wx portends, if anything, for winter cold/warm/near normal/whatever chances. I'm just enjoying the current weather. Make it a great day! I'll worry about winter when it gets here. And no matter what the winter gives us, I predict it will be way, way better than the best summer can give us. So, I really will never need to worry about winter. I mean I survived last winter without any problem even if it wasn't what I preferred.
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image.jpg
 
Lol,
GaWx said:
Actually, this Oct as a whole is going to end up quite warm. So, not good news, accu? :(
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Im sorry larry, i wasnt clear of what i was saying. I meant around Halloween time was always cold and when it was, then winter were to. Stats, climo, science, has no control of what could be in store for this winter. So my hopes stays alive and strong until the end;)
 
Briefly made it to 40.2 a bit ago, now back down to 39.1 and slowly falling. Looks like the first freeze of the season will be tonight. Forecast shows 30. Under a freeze warning. Yeehaw! :-D On the flip side, it's gonna feel like summer tomorrow with highs in the lower 60s after todays mainly 30s lol
 
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