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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

If it's going to really warm up in February...I wonder if, just considering how warm vs cold can really clash, the best chance for a winter storm comes in January/early February (early February through a front).
La Ninas are notorious for unusually early season severe weather outbreaks especially over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys (Super Tuesday February 2008 for ex) due in part to the aforementioned warm up over the SE US late in the winter that leads to a very strong baroclinic zone over the central part of the country as Cp & arctic airmasses continue to flood the Pacific NW, northern Rockies, & upper Midwest which leaves a lot of potential barortropic (conversion of basic state kinetic energy into available eddy kinetic energy) and baroclinc energy conversion (conversion of basic state available energy into eddy available energy) to be had for any incipient disturbance that becomes entrained into this sort of pattern. Essentially the difference between barotropic energy conversion and baroclinic energy conversion is that the former (barotropic energy conversion) relies on pre-existing energy (derived from the kinetic energy of the background flow, very common form of energy conversion in the tropics, wherein there exists little-no temperature gradients (& thus little potential energy) & it's also observed in the mid latitudes due to waves leaning against the bgd shear (negatively tilted (NW-SE orientated waves south of the jet, north of the jet core, barotropic energy conversion actually favors positively tilted waves). Baroclinic energy conversion, one many are often more inherently familiar with, is a more fancy way of saying that pre-existing temperature gradients (which also implies density gradients) leave a lot of potential energy to be had and the Rossby Waves we observe on a day-to-day basis convert this potential energy into a more useable form (I.e Eddy potential energy) which is realized as a strengthening low or high pressure system (in a general sense)
 
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Short lived, but beautiful incoming, IMHO ...

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Looks like there is a chance for severe storms today down east.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
536 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
536 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move onshore over northeastern SC and southeastern NC late this evening, then spread along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor late tonight through Sunday morning. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

West to northwesterly winds will become blustery behind a cold front Sunday afternoon through at least early Sunday night, with peak wind gusts during that between 30 and 40 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 11 PM tonight and 8 AM Sunday morning.
 
18z 12km NAM is likely over doing the snow across the higher elevations of TN/NC/WV and VA. However, snow flurries and snow showers with some accumulation is not out of the question. The highest snow accumulations will be along the NW/western facing slopes of the highest elevations.


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Might hit 70 today before caa kicks in the temp drop afterward should be fun.

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Just how I remembered it, today. Considering that this is what it takes...imo for it to stay this cold early on, this is why I don't really care about what the models are showing for now.
 
37.5, wind chill in the 20s and winds gusting 25-30..oh and there are also a few stray snow flurries flying by every now and then. Hello Winter...... I guess. lol

Not a good sign for winter as per others. Snow near Halloween. :(
Otherwise, congratulations! That truly is a rarity in the ATL area this early. Wow! And the cold, itself, is certainly impressive. Like night and day vs this time in 2016!
It is currently only in the 50s in S GA and in N FL, as noted in Phil's map above, with sunny skies. It isn't too often to see that in late Oct in the afternoon! Looking forward to today's walk!
Upper 30s tonight much of S GA/N FL, which is almost as cold as O'Hare is this morning! Talk about direct transport of cold air!
 
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Not a good sign for winter as per others. Snow near Halloween.
Otherwise, congratulations! That truly is a rarity in the ATL area this early. Wow! And the cold, itself, is certainly impressive. Like night and day vs this time in 2016!
It is currently only in the 50s in S GA and in N FL, as noted in Phil's map above, with sunny skies. It isn't too often to see that in late Oct!
Fuji blue sky with awesome midday shadows due to the sun angle. Paradise.
But, yes, Larry, snow and cold in October tends to give me a bit of concern. Admittedly, we can have a cold spell in October and have a good winter, but a lifetime of observations causes me some genuine consternation in the general scheme of things. Just one man's thoughts, though ... Others probably differ, and that's cool ....
But regardless - on my way to Bivens to enjoy a stiff NW wind, blue skies, a mid-afternoon temp below 60, and some hot sake ... :cool:
 
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