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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

I'm not going to say this winter will be below normal, above normal or normal. Nothing is set-in-stone in the weather field, days and or months ahead. I'm not a big fan of seasonal outlooks, because there is very limited skill.

Of course, we have idea's of how the winter will turn out, but nothing is guaranteed. You can throw out possibilities all day long, but at the end of the day, we go along of what the weather brings and forecast it at the best of our abilities.

Enjoy the journey of this winter. We just don't know how the winter will exactly be like.



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SoutheastRidge said:
Euro and NAM both showing maybe a couple inches of snow in parts of the Ohio Valley. But will it stick?
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I doubt there will be widespread snow accumulation there. It's a cold air chasing moisture scenario. Most of the moisture will be gone by the time the cold enough air arrives to support snow. The mountains across TN/NC could see some flurries. WV could see some decent snow accumulations though.

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Storm5 said:
The Canadian snow pack is just as important . I'm good with a Nina pattern in November. Build that damn snow pack!!!
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I honestly believe the snowpack in Canada has more of an impact on us than in Siberia. Getting a bank of cold air on this side of the world matters more because the air travels a shorter distance and cools the Upper US, and if we can get a snowpack well into the US as well, a cold winter would be easier by that argument.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I honestly believe the snowpack in Canada has more of an impact on us than in Siberia. Getting a bank of cold air on this side of the world matters more because the air travels a shorter distance and cools the Upper US, and if we can get a snowpack well into the US as well, a cold winter would be easier by that argument.
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Actually, after the last few years, the correlation of October Siberian snowfall (SAI, etc) to our winters (technically it is to the winter's AO, which were clear fails in recent years) has to be questioned. The SAI failed pretty badly the last few years if I'm recalling correctly. Is there still that strong of a correlation when including these recent failures?
 
GaWx said:
Actually, after the last few years, the correlation of October Siberian snowfall (SAI, etc) to our winters has to be questioned. The SAI failed pretty badly the last few years if I'm recalling correctly. Is there still that strong of a correlation when including these recent failures?
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Yeah, I don't trust the Siberian snow cover idea much anymore and would like really like to hear other correlations versus the Siberian snow cover all the time. Also, we had Indonesian convection apparently mess us up last year, so any little thing could throw the perfect setup off.
 
Webber, the only reason you think k December may be the coldest month is because of climo? We had a +QBO in December and it was pretty cold and early January. Now, with total opposite QBO, are you thinking there won't be much difference for Dec and Jan, despite the -QBO compared to last winter?
 
Per the link below, the Arctic north of 80W has cooled much more rapidly over the last 11 days than normals cool, from ~17F to ~0F, including about a 2.5 F cooling just during the last 24 hours. So, it cooled ~17 F, while normals cooled only ~5.5 F (~0.5 F/day) during the last 11 days. Normal today is ~-5 F. Normal 11 days ago was ~+0.5 F.

As mentioned, it is now near 0F. Last year on this day it was +8F and it then rose to a whopping +23 F 11/20/16!! It didn't finally get down to 0 F last year until near December 1st!! It then rose back up to +12 F just before Christmas when normals are -19 F...yes 31 F above normal in the Arctic just before Christmas of 2016!! One might assume the AO was very negative then. No, it was actually VERY positive at ~+4!! Knowing this, it is no surprise last winter was so warm in so much of the country with such a warm Arctic source region though the upper air pattern is normally by far the biggest factor and probably was last winter.

AO 2016 12 23 3.807

2017: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

2016: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

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whatalife said:
I actually don’t like this discussion. When people start Cherry picking others comments it turns some of us off. More importantly it may even lead to scaring some into not posting on our forum.


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I was only being funny. Someone around here has to have a since of humor
 
GaWx said:
It would be funny if after all of this warm November discussion that it ends up near normal or colder in the SE. To clarify, I'm not forecasting that.
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While I think the month ends up AN I'm interested in the middle of the month. The PV might try to slip until the hudson bay area and the pacific trough flatten a bit. While it still favors AN the potential is there for a front or 2 to slip into the region maybe even some type of wedge

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Mr. Golf said:
Webber, the only reason you think k December may be the coldest month is because of climo? We had a +QBO in December and it was pretty cold and early January. Now, with total opposite QBO, are you thinking there won't be much difference for Dec and Jan, despite the -QBO compared to last winter?
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Not climo, but climatological progression of La Niña winters... Their modulation of the NAM is s.t. our winters start out seasonable to cold in November and December and become progressively warmer as we get deeper into winter because on the whole, their quasi stationary forcing induces a Rossby wave pattern that interferes with the mean standing planetary wave configuration, which ultimately allows the polar vortex to intensify over the course of the winter >>> higher +NAO/+AO esp in/around February
 
If it's going to really warm up in February...I wonder if, just considering how warm vs cold can really clash, the best chance for a winter storm comes in January/early February (early February through a front).
 
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