• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

GaWx said:
Not a good sign for winter as per others. Snow near Halloween. :(
Otherwise, congratulations! That truly is a rarity in the ATL area this early. Wow! And the cold, itself, is certainly impressive. Like night and day vs this time in 2016!
It is currently only in the 50s in S GA and in N FL, as noted in Phil's map above, with sunny skies. It isn't too often to see that in late Oct! Looking forward to today's walk!
Upper 30s tonight much of S GA/N FL, which is almost as cold as O'hare is this morning! Talk about direct transport of cold air!
Click to expand...
I remember Oct was really cold growing up, and the winters were great. I just dont get why a cold Oct would bring warm winter, i think if anything its a good sign for a cold winter like it was growing up.
 
accu35 said:
I remember Oct was really cold growing up, and the winters were great. I just dont get why a cold Oct would bring warm winter, i think if anything its a good sign for a cold winter like it was growing up.
Click to expand...

Actually, this Oct as a whole is going to end up quite warm. So, not good news, accu? :(
 
GaWx said:
Actually, this Oct as a whole is going to end up quite warm. So, not good news, accu? :(
Click to expand...
Today has to be one of the coldest October days in years. Hard to believe we are colder than all of last December.
 
Ugh here we go again with this nonsense... Can we all just agree these attempts to linearize short term weather and climate variability are crap unless a lot of context and a physical mechanism are provided. Going so far as to say a cold October, what happens in November the winter will remember, snow on Halloween or what have you is simply not enough to consistently and accurately gauge the upcoming winter these events are merely random variation unless background forcing is superimposed onto them & even then there's certainly a legitimate possibility that said event or phenomena in x bgd has no significant bearing on the winter. I totally understand the fun involved in speculating about these things I just want to make sure we're hanging our hats on actual science
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ugh here we go again with this nonsense... Can we all just agree these attempts to linearize short term weather and climate variability are crap unless a lot of context and a physical mechanism are provided. Going so far as to say a cold October, what happens in November the winter will remember, snow on Halloween or what have you is simply not enough to consistently and accurately gauge the upcoming winter these events are merely random variation unless background forcing is superimposed onto them & even then there's certainly a legitimate possibility that said event or phenomena in x bgd has no significant bearing on the winter. I totally understand the fun involved in speculating about these things I just want to make sure we're hanging our hats on actual science
Click to expand...
Agree, wholeheartedly, but ... a lifetime of observations is worth something as well ... :confused:
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, the wind is biting and is around 40 here right now and I saw a few flakes as well. Definitely a winter-like day.
Click to expand...

Most definitely! I finally have managed to get up to 39.4 this hour. Still have a few flurries falling every now and then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't disagree that those are important but they need context or else the predictions they offer are no better than flipping a coin
Click to expand...
Webb,
I'm on my way out to enjoy the weather. so I need to be quick. I never made a prediction - just offered a personal observation. Simply FWIW.
Enjoy your day; I will mine!
;)
Best!
Phil
 
I'm just having fun with this Oct stuff. :) Also, I'm done at least for now with serious discussion about what November wx portends, if anything, for winter cold/warm/near normal/whatever chances. I'm just enjoying the current weather. Make it a great day! I'll worry about winter when it gets here. And no matter what the winter gives us, I predict it will be way, way better than the best summer can give us. So, I really will never need to worry about winter. I mean I survived last winter without any problem even if it wasn't what I preferred.
 
Funny thing is, with this cold-ish end to October it's going to end up averaging about what last year's October did haha.
 
GaWx said:
I'm just having fun with this Oct stuff. :) Also, I'm done at least for now with serious discussion about what November wx portends, if anything, for winter cold/warm/near normal/whatever chances. I'm just enjoying the current weather. Make it a great day! I'll worry about winter when it gets here. And no matter what the winter gives us, I predict it will be way, way better than the best summer can give us. So, I really will never need to worry about winter. I mean I survived last winter without any problem even if it wasn't what I preferred.
Click to expand...

image.jpg
 
Lol,
GaWx said:
Actually, this Oct as a whole is going to end up quite warm. So, not good news, accu? :(
Click to expand...
Im sorry larry, i wasnt clear of what i was saying. I meant around Halloween time was always cold and when it was, then winter were to. Stats, climo, science, has no control of what could be in store for this winter. So my hopes stays alive and strong until the end;)
 
Briefly made it to 40.2 a bit ago, now back down to 39.1 and slowly falling. Looks like the first freeze of the season will be tonight. Forecast shows 30. Under a freeze warning. Yeehaw! :-D On the flip side, it's gonna feel like summer tomorrow with highs in the lower 60s after todays mainly 30s lol
 
It hit 35 near the house here. May have lightly froze actually, because the airport had 30.

I had it backwards in the other thread. With this setup we have, the low always ends up warmer, while the high is a bit cooler than the airport.
 
KATL had 32, which is its earliest 32 since 2001, when it occurred two days earlier. Prior to 2001, the last time Oct had a 32 or colder was way back in 1976, which preceded a very cold rest of fall and winter.

SAV had an impressive 36 this morning!
 
Last edited:
Houston, TX, had its coldest Oct low and first Oct record low since 1993 with a 35! They have had only 5 Oct lows that low or colder since records started in 1889! The 5 years: 1993, 1989, 1980, 1976, and 1917. The most similar year ENSOwise and only La Nina of the 5 was 1917. All 5 of these years had near normal or colder Nov and Dec. while 1989, 1976 and 1917 had a very cold Dec. This is not a prediction for 2017 but just an observation of the past that doesn't in itself suggest a mild Nov-Dec. fwiw.
 
Last edited:
The JB inhouse model, AKA " Pioneer " model, has a cold look to it now ! :)
 
GaWx said:
Not a good sign for winter as per others. Snow near Halloween. :(
Otherwise, congratulations! That truly is a rarity in the ATL area this early. Wow! And the cold, itself, is certainly impressive. Like night and day vs this time in 2016!
It is currently only in the 50s in S GA and in N FL, as noted in Phil's map above, with sunny skies. It isn't too often to see that in late Oct in the afternoon! Looking forward to today's walk!
Upper 30s tonight much of S GA/N FL, which is almost as cold as O'Hare is this morning! Talk about direct transport of cold air!
Click to expand...
There isn't any correlation with what is happening now, and this winter.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
A colder than normal December is very reasonable this year and given how warm the first half of November will be and stereotypical NIÑA progression it may be our best chance to go below normal this winter
Click to expand...
Sorry but DT is already saying December will be the warmest month of the winter.
 
GaWx said:
Houston, TX, had its coldest Oct low and first Oct record low since 1993 with a 35! They have had only 5 Oct lows that low or colder since records started in 1889! The 5 years: 1993, 1989, 1980, 1976, and 1917. The most similar year ENSOwise and only La Nina of the 5 was 1917. All 5 of these years had near normal or colder Nov and Dec. while 1989, 1976 and 1917 had a very cold Dec. This is not a prediction for 2017 but just an observation of the past that doesn't in itself suggest a mild Nov-Dec. fwiw.
Click to expand...

More regarding this 35 low at Houston: about half of all Houston Novembers since 1890 had their coldest warmer than today's 35 low! So, this is just more evidence that this cold airmass was a pretty big deal vs climo. We could easily go 10-20 years+ before we see another so cold in October though that's not a prediction.

Edit: Median coldest in Oct since 1890 at Houston is 46.
Median coldest in Oct since 1890 at Atlanta is 38.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top