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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

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Storm5 said:
NOAA just released its winter forecast. Don't look, it's brutal . Warm and dry
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Has it ever shown anything else whenever a chance of a Nina was there? I don't think they were anywhere close to getting 2010-11 either.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, seems like the same sort of idea. Precipitation to me doesn't matter too much since above average correlates to precipitation in abundant amounts during warm periods, or so it seems. I'm more focused on temps which I'm hoping is a bust and we get colder.
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Yeah it seems a bit early to put out any winter forecast at this time anyway. I think next month will be telling with how the winter could play out so that would make more sense to wait.
 
Storm5 said:
NOAA just released its winter forecast. Don't look, it's brutal . Warm and dry
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When is the last time they had a seasonal outlook (esp. for winter) that was colder than normal for the SE? It always seems to be warm, dry, or in the best case scenario, equal chances. I don't even look at their seasonal outlooks anymore.
 
They don't like to put equal chances since that shows they have no clue. Lol.
 
NOAA's winter outlooks essentially regurgitate ENSO without much further rigorous analysis... While I tend to agree with the idea of a warmer and drier than normal winter in the SE US this winter, not sure about the distribution and intensity of the anomalies...
 
Webberweather53 said:
NOAA's winter outlooks essentially regurgitate ENSO without much further rigorous analysis... While I tend to agree with the idea of a warmer and drier than normal winter in the SE US this winter, not sure about the distribution and intensity of the anomalies...
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Wouldn't you agree it's too early to tell though? What if we actually had blocking this winter? Wouldn't that take time to know for sure?
 
Yeah as others said NOAA outlooks aren't to be taken all that seriously. With that being said I slightly disagree with Webber, I think this winter will be a lot closer to average. Which would be frigid compared to the last two winters.

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Any thoughts on Severe Weather with this coming cold? I see SPC already has a day three outlook in place.
 
SimeonNC said:
Yeah as others said NOAA outlooks aren't to be taken all that seriously. With that being said I slightly disagree with Webber, I think this winter will be a lot closer to average. Which would be frigid compared to the last two winters.

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Yeah anything near normal to me would mean periods of real cold mixed with warm at times. I think the swings in temps would certainly provide a window of opportunity for something good to pop up.
 
GaStorm said:
Wouldn't you agree it's too early to tell though? What if we actually had blocking this winter? Wouldn't that take time to know for sure?
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Some variables begin to reveal themselves by this time in the fall, and when you combine the long-term background state, warm background climates like this one and during the medieval warm period tend to favor less high latitude blocking over the Atlantic, background state inter annual tendencies which has favored a stronger than normal Greenland/Iceland Vortex, dynamical forcing (slight uptick in solar activity coupled w/ EQBO >>> less blocking), and ENSO which interferes w/ the standing planetary wave configuration and henceforth tends to reduce wave activity flux onto the polar vortex all are conducive to a stronger vortex. While some of the variables can certainly change, the ENSO forcing (NINA-esque) coupled w/ long term background state changes (AGW) and dynamical forcing all tend to skew the probabilities quite high for a warmer than normal winter around the SE US...
 
Not very educated with winter forecast or ENSO, i think its safe to say this Fall/Winter will have major temps swings. Not saying NOAA is right, but i think they will keep there forecast the same and safely go with an warm winter to only adjust in time if needed. Me personally, i could see it getting closer to avg on most cases. Just remeber, even if we were to face a warm winter, theres always plenty of chances for some artic cold waves with storms mixed in. This is the south, thats why its fun to track these things. Fun times ahead.
 
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