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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah once Lan developed, much of the divergence went away in NWP... Now it's going to be more of an issue related to how they handle it's diabatic heating and concomitant upper level outflow as well as the extravagance of the eventual extratropical transition. This ultimately determines the strength of the upper level ridge that will balloon to its NE and the associated ageostrophic geopotential flux that allows the Rossby Wave packet to propagate eastward and thus affects the speed of said Wave packet, timing, amplitude, & shape of the trough over the eastern US around Oct 26...
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Is it me, or does the gfs has little moisture to play with next week "very light" east coast where the 540 line is? Could the mountains see a light frozen event with next weeks cold shot?
 
I notice places like Boone, mountaincity, snowshoe are showing rain/snow next week cold shot.
 
accu35 said:
Is it me, or does the gfs has little moisture to play with next week "very light" east coast where the 540 line is? Could the mountains see a light frozen event with next weeks cold shot?
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Yeah there isn't much moisture to work with, the mountains will have residual moisture from the Great Lakes combined with upslope flow to squeeze out some rain/snow showers and could lead to some minor accumulations in the higher elevations... For those wanting something outside the the mountains on the east coast we'll have to wait a while but something will probably show up (most likely New England or maybe mid Atlantic) with increasing anticyclonic wavebreaking in the North Atlantic.
 
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This longwave configuration currently advertised by the EPS in the 6-10, featuring a big trough over the Aleutians and Bering Sea coupled w/ a Scandinavian ridge is a precursor to wavenumber 1 polar vortex displacement... We'd need to see this pattern persist for a while to impart enough poleward wave activity flux to appreciably weaken/displace the vortex, and the EPS is currently not enthused about its longevity. Nonetheless, with the MJO pushing through the Pacific this upcoming week and into the following one, we should anticipate increasing probabilities for high latitude North Atlantic blocking in early-mid November...

MJO Phase 6 & -NAO.png


Here's a lead-lag composite for the MJO wrt a +NAO (NAO+), -NAO (NAO-), Atlantic Ridge, and Scandinavian blocking. Note when we're in MJO phases 6-7, which would should be in about a week or so, the frequency of -NAO regimes increases dramatically from initialization and peaks about 1.5-2 weeks later...
Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 10.12.22 AM.png

We should probably anticipate something similar to transpire here....
ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
 
Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 10.15.41 AM.png

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Easterly QBO descent continues, with the anomalous easterly wind max now encroaching on 25-30 hPa. There's relatively an even split between early and late winter stratospheric warmings w/ 30 hPa easterly wind maxima, and the chances are a little higher than normal during solar min. Unfortunately, even w/ stratospheric warming events that often trigger high-latitude tropospheric blocking, a lot can and often tends to go wrong to thwart the concomitant cold air from making it into the eastern US when these warming events occur in La Ninas or neutral ENSO regimes, sudden stratospheric warming events that occur with El Ninos on the other hand, tend to treat the SE US very well...
 
Beautiful , too bad it's day 10
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Storm5 said:
Beautiful , too bad it's day 10
50d846e902df0514f41bbadcddba1eb7.jpg


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There's some kind of anti-wedge, heat wedge, from SD down towards GSP! Probably the wet ground! :(
 
What a difference a week makes. Last week reading some comments on here you would have thought we might never have a winter again. This week though everyone seems happy. It’s hard but I always try not to get to high or to low over the current or future predicted weather. I think last years horrible winter has us all a little more on edge when temps are above normal.
 
Storm5 said:
Man the trough on the 12z Euro is beautiful

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So is the ridge out west on that run ... :D

May be transient past a couple weeks, but this is pretty good looking, as well ...

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In the sake of full candor, the Super Ensemble for today was a little less aggressive ...
 
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olhausen said:
What a difference a week makes. Last week reading some comments on here you would have thought we might never have a winter again. This week though everyone seems happy. It’s hard but I always try not to get to high or to low over the current or future predicted weather. I think last years horrible winter has us all a little more on edge when temps are above normal.
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There have been too many years in a row of uneventful winters especially the further south you go. Something has to give and hopefully that something will be the NAO tanking and leading to a good southern snowstorm this winter.
 
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