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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

IDK that this month ends up particularly below average, remember just last week it was hot. I think this part 1 of a hot October and part 2 of a (potentially) colder than normal October is going to end in a near normal average (if the colder than normal happens).
 
pcbjr said:
No fan here of unusually cold Octobers, but just perhaps this will begin a change in the tide.

1977 - 78 was one of those years ... atypical (and not wholly analogous to this year, obviously) but ... o_O
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Phil,
1. Thanks for posting 1977-8 as that was, indeed, a very nice exception! Like you, I'm not exactly wanting there to be a SE Halloween snow!

2. As mentioned by GeorgiaGirl. I'm sure you realize that Oct of 2017 will end up quite warm in the SE as a whole despite the late month chill. KATL is headed for a ~+3, which makes it a 90ish percentile warm Oct there.

3. I found the other main exceptions. A great one was 1976-7:

Oct cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.15.31.prcp.png
Nov-Feb cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.17.17.prcp.png

4. 1917-8, 1957-8, and 1967-8 were the other exceptions I could find that were cold in both Oct and Nov-Feb.in the SE US.

5. I'd welcome a cold SE Nov as per KATL there has been a mild correlation of cold Nov to cold DJF since 1879-80:

13 coldest Novembers (all 4 or more colder than normal):

- 6 followed by cold DJF including the only two weak to moderate La Nina winters with a cold Nov. The other 4 were: 1 cold neutral, 2 weak El nino, and 1 moderate El Nino.
- 4 followed by near normal DJF
- 3 followed by warm DJF: 2 of these were cold neutral and the other was moderate El Nino

So, a cold SE Nov would certainly not by itself mean an increased chance for a warm DJF. If anything, it would mean slightly increased chance for a cold DJF per the correlation..
 
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Eps is quite cold for the last 8 days of the month here. Lots of highs right around 60. Perhaps the first freeze, would be about right on schedule

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12z eps is lust worthy
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GaWx said:
Phil,
1. Thanks for posting 1977-8 as that was, indeed, a very nice exception! Like you, I'm not exactly wanting there to be a SE Halloween snow!

2. As mentioned by GeorgiaGirl. I'm sure you realize that Oct of 2017 will end up quite warm in the SE as a whole despite the late month chill. KATL is headed for a ~+3, which makes it a 90ish percentile warm Oct there.

3. I found the other main exceptions. A great one was 1976-7:

Oct cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.15.31.prcp.png
Nov-Feb cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.17.17.prcp.png

4. 1917-8, 1957-8, and 1967-8 were the other exceptions I could find that were cold in both Oct and Nov-Feb.in the SE US.

5. I'd welcome a cold SE Nov as per KATL there has been a mild correlation of cold Nov to cold DJF since 1879-80:

13 coldest Novembers (all 4 or more colder than normal):

- 6 followed by cold DJF including the only two weak to moderate La Nina winters with a cold Nov. The other 4 were: 1 cold neutral, 2 weak El nino, and 1 moderate El Nino.
- 4 followed by near normal DJF
- 3 followed by warm DJF: 2 of these were cold neutral and the other was moderate El Nino

So, a cold SE Nov would certainly not by itself mean an increased chance for a warm DJF. If anything, it would mean slightly increased chance for a cold DJF per the correlation..
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Good info Larry!
I did not mean to suggest Oct was going to end up BN. Far from it, in fact. But if the end of the month were to trend well BN, as some models are strongly suggesting, that might signal something going into winter - at least that was what I hoped to convey. The '77 - '78 non-analogy was just that, and was also to show that despite my reservations about cold Octobers, every once in a while, other factors coming into play, a cold October does not always mean a warm winter. In fact, I was intentionally arguing against myself by posting '77 - '78 in an effort to be balanced.
Just to make sure I've not been misunderstood, it's cold Octobers that generally concern me; cold Novembers seem to lend themselves to a carryover into Christmas, but not much afterwards.
Hence, all things being equal in our neck of the woods anyway, on average it seems the "best winters" - those that span Dec into Feb, start after turkey day.
Just a lifetime of personal observation and some study to boot.
Best!
Phil
 
... and they have snipers on the roof across and down from my office ... streets already barricaded ... special courtrooms set up ... that nut is coming to town tomorrow ... :mad:
 
pcbjr said:
... and they have snipers on the roof across and down from my office ... streets already barricaded ... special courtrooms set up ... that nut is coming to town tomorrow ... :mad:
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Brick??
 
pcbjr said:
... and they have snipers on the roof across and down from my office ... streets already barricaded ... special courtrooms set up ... that nut is coming to town tomorrow ... :mad:
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Be careful! If I were still there, I'd probably make it a stay in the apartment kind of day if possible. Why is UF even allowing that scrambled brains nutcase to speak? Are they afraid of lawsuits? Do they have to because they're a public univ?? It is insane!

Edit: are they in dire need of the 10K rental fee for the facility???
 
GaWx said:
Be careful! If I were still there, I'd probably make it a stay in the apartment kind of day if possible. Why is UF even allowing that scrambled brains nutcase to speak? Are they afraid of lawsuits? Do they have to because they're a public univ?? It is insane!
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All of the above and more ... --- it is insane.

Just thinkin' ... tonight's the night we need to start a 2 night October Gainesville hard freeze with major radiational cooling ... the rest of what may or may not be a winter as a result be damned ...
 
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The fingerprints of Lan's influence on the northern hemisphere wave guide predictability is very apparent in looking at the GFS Ensemble forecast spread of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause. Note the filament of very high spread that envelopes the North Pacific on day 5 as Lan recurves and this quickly propagates downstream into North America only a couple days thereafter, a testament to the efficiency of geostrophic geopotential fluxes for advecting Rossby Wave Packets, concomitant waves, and unpredictability along with them. As an important aside, one of the main reasons I'm using potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause is, similar to potential vorticity this quantity is capable of diagnosing quantitative cause-and-effect, which in this case can be deduced by the strong upper level, diabatic ridge spurred largely by Lan to its NE, immediately upstream in the mid latitude jet. The dynamic tropopause is also useful for diagnosing the location of the tropopause, and intensity of the jet stream at the tropopause, because unlike pressure levels which are susceptible to dipping well above or below the jet core, generally speaking, virtually everywhere on the dynamic tropopause (defined in terms of Potential Vorticity Units (PVU) (1 PVU = 1.0 × 10-6 m2 s-1K kg-1), and here is 2 PVU) intersects the jet core, therefore you can also derive a more viable estimate of the jet stream's maximum intensity over a larger region of the globe...

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 12.51.17 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 10.19.31 PM.png
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http://arctic.som.ou.edu/scavallo/real_time_plots.html
 
Well, I just woke up to being in the bullseye for the Mon/Tues rain event! The model they showed on the local news, gives GSP 4.12" of precip for the whole event!! :)
I'll let y'all figure out how this will end.....
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well, I just woke up to being in the bullseye for the Mon/Tues rain event! The model they showed on the local news, gives GSP 4.12" of precip for the whole event!! :)
I'll let y'all figure out how this will end.....
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Yes, woke up to see GFS is much wetter here also... Lingers around for a good bit too
 
Storm5 said:
Good read
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Our first strat warming event of the winter/fall season! Glad to hear! I hate waiting to February to wait for this voodoo to save us!
 
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