Mr. Golf
Member
Webber, when will you have your winter forecast out? Or a good idea what may happen?
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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
Goofus says break back out those shorts and flip flops by Nov. 1st 
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pcbjr
Member
The recurring theme of cold late Octobers outside the mountains ...Goofus says break back out those shorts and flip flops by Nov. 1st
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accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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18z gfs continues to show a nice cold next week, the one after around Halloween or November 1 is still a blurry picture this far out, plus its the 18z gfs happy hr, LOL!! Signs and models are showing some good stuff maybe first of month, will see. Plenty time to go.
Look very Halloweenish, to say the least!!Goofus says break back out those shorts and flip flops by Nov. 1st
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You should check out the new CFSv2! For D,J,F, JB posted it! It's pants tightening! Seems like he's wanting to take back his torch outlook and go to his wheelhouse cold winter forecast!
whatalife
Moderator
Down to 47 going to be hard to miss the mid to upper 30s
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pcbjr
Member
In all fairness, he does say he cherry picked.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
49 already...will be interesting to see how low it goes.
I know, but you can almost here it his post, he wants to go cold.
Mr. Golf
Member
I don't think noone will know until mid November what kind of winter we may have IMO at the earliest
37 this morning
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Was 43 here at the lowest.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The euro only had temps dipping into the mid 40s here this morning in RDU, got officially down to 37F at the airport. This cold shot next week looks very impressive and the euro is already at least 5F colder than this morning area wide, could end up being the first frost or freeze for many...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My forecast last year didn't come out until the end of November and the forecast was valid thru March. I don't plan to release mine for a while and let things play out a bit so some of the non-ENSO related specifics can be resolved... Currently shooting for mid-late November.
Probably heat release from all the standing water
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah once Lan developed, much of the divergence went away in NWP... Now it's going to be more of an issue related to how they handle it's diabatic heating and concomitant upper level outflow as well as the extravagance of the eventual extratropical transition. This ultimately determines the strength of the upper level ridge that will balloon to its NE and the associated ageostrophic geopotential flux that allows the Rossby Wave packet to propagate eastward and thus affects the speed of said Wave packet, timing, amplitude, & shape of the trough over the eastern US around Oct 26...