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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

IDK that this month ends up particularly below average, remember just last week it was hot. I think this part 1 of a hot October and part 2 of a (potentially) colder than normal October is going to end in a near normal average (if the colder than normal happens).
 
pcbjr said:
No fan here of unusually cold Octobers, but just perhaps this will begin a change in the tide.

1977 - 78 was one of those years ... atypical (and not wholly analogous to this year, obviously) but ... o_O
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Phil,
1. Thanks for posting 1977-8 as that was, indeed, a very nice exception! Like you, I'm not exactly wanting there to be a SE Halloween snow!

2. As mentioned by GeorgiaGirl. I'm sure you realize that Oct of 2017 will end up quite warm in the SE as a whole despite the late month chill. KATL is headed for a ~+3, which makes it a 90ish percentile warm Oct there.

3. I found the other main exceptions. A great one was 1976-7:

Oct cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.15.31.prcp.png
Nov-Feb cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.17.17.prcp.png

4. 1917-8, 1957-8, and 1967-8 were the other exceptions I could find that were cold in both Oct and Nov-Feb.in the SE US.

5. I'd welcome a cold SE Nov as per KATL there has been a mild correlation of cold Nov to cold DJF since 1879-80:

13 coldest Novembers (all 4 or more colder than normal):

- 6 followed by cold DJF including the only two weak to moderate La Nina winters with a cold Nov. The other 4 were: 1 cold neutral, 2 weak El nino, and 1 moderate El Nino.
- 4 followed by near normal DJF
- 3 followed by warm DJF: 2 of these were cold neutral and the other was moderate El Nino

So, a cold SE Nov would certainly not by itself mean an increased chance for a warm DJF. If anything, it would mean slightly increased chance for a cold DJF per the correlation..
 
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Eps is quite cold for the last 8 days of the month here. Lots of highs right around 60. Perhaps the first freeze, would be about right on schedule

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12z eps is lust worthy
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GaWx said:
Phil,
1. Thanks for posting 1977-8 as that was, indeed, a very nice exception! Like you, I'm not exactly wanting there to be a SE Halloween snow!

2. As mentioned by GeorgiaGirl. I'm sure you realize that Oct of 2017 will end up quite warm in the SE as a whole despite the late month chill. KATL is headed for a ~+3, which makes it a 90ish percentile warm Oct there.

3. I found the other main exceptions. A great one was 1976-7:

Oct cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.15.31.prcp.png
Nov-Feb cold: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.290.14.17.17.prcp.png

4. 1917-8, 1957-8, and 1967-8 were the other exceptions I could find that were cold in both Oct and Nov-Feb.in the SE US.

5. I'd welcome a cold SE Nov as per KATL there has been a mild correlation of cold Nov to cold DJF since 1879-80:

13 coldest Novembers (all 4 or more colder than normal):

- 6 followed by cold DJF including the only two weak to moderate La Nina winters with a cold Nov. The other 4 were: 1 cold neutral, 2 weak El nino, and 1 moderate El Nino.
- 4 followed by near normal DJF
- 3 followed by warm DJF: 2 of these were cold neutral and the other was moderate El Nino

So, a cold SE Nov would certainly not by itself mean an increased chance for a warm DJF. If anything, it would mean slightly increased chance for a cold DJF per the correlation..
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Good info Larry!
I did not mean to suggest Oct was going to end up BN. Far from it, in fact. But if the end of the month were to trend well BN, as some models are strongly suggesting, that might signal something going into winter - at least that was what I hoped to convey. The '77 - '78 non-analogy was just that, and was also to show that despite my reservations about cold Octobers, every once in a while, other factors coming into play, a cold October does not always mean a warm winter. In fact, I was intentionally arguing against myself by posting '77 - '78 in an effort to be balanced.
Just to make sure I've not been misunderstood, it's cold Octobers that generally concern me; cold Novembers seem to lend themselves to a carryover into Christmas, but not much afterwards.
Hence, all things being equal in our neck of the woods anyway, on average it seems the "best winters" - those that span Dec into Feb, start after turkey day.
Just a lifetime of personal observation and some study to boot.
Best!
Phil
 
... and they have snipers on the roof across and down from my office ... streets already barricaded ... special courtrooms set up ... that nut is coming to town tomorrow ... :mad:
 
pcbjr said:
... and they have snipers on the roof across and down from my office ... streets already barricaded ... special courtrooms set up ... that nut is coming to town tomorrow ... :mad:
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Brick??
 
pcbjr said:
... and they have snipers on the roof across and down from my office ... streets already barricaded ... special courtrooms set up ... that nut is coming to town tomorrow ... :mad:
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Be careful! If I were still there, I'd probably make it a stay in the apartment kind of day if possible. Why is UF even allowing that scrambled brains nutcase to speak? Are they afraid of lawsuits? Do they have to because they're a public univ?? It is insane!

Edit: are they in dire need of the 10K rental fee for the facility???
 
GaWx said:
Be careful! If I were still there, I'd probably make it a stay in the apartment kind of day if possible. Why is UF even allowing that scrambled brains nutcase to speak? Are they afraid of lawsuits? Do they have to because they're a public univ?? It is insane!
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All of the above and more ... --- it is insane.

Just thinkin' ... tonight's the night we need to start a 2 night October Gainesville hard freeze with major radiational cooling ... the rest of what may or may not be a winter as a result be damned ...
 
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The fingerprints of Lan's influence on the northern hemisphere wave guide predictability is very apparent in looking at the GFS Ensemble forecast spread of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause. Note the filament of very high spread that envelopes the North Pacific on day 5 as Lan recurves and this quickly propagates downstream into North America only a couple days thereafter, a testament to the efficiency of geostrophic geopotential fluxes for advecting Rossby Wave Packets, concomitant waves, and unpredictability along with them. As an important aside, one of the main reasons I'm using potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause is, similar to potential vorticity this quantity is capable of diagnosing quantitative cause-and-effect, which in this case can be deduced by the strong upper level, diabatic ridge spurred largely by Lan to its NE, immediately upstream in the mid latitude jet. The dynamic tropopause is also useful for diagnosing the location of the tropopause, and intensity of the jet stream at the tropopause, because unlike pressure levels which are susceptible to dipping well above or below the jet core, generally speaking, virtually everywhere on the dynamic tropopause (defined in terms of Potential Vorticity Units (PVU) (1 PVU = 1.0 × 10-6 m2 s-1K kg-1), and here is 2 PVU) intersects the jet core, therefore you can also derive a more viable estimate of the jet stream's maximum intensity over a larger region of the globe...

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 12.51.17 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 10.19.31 PM.png
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http://arctic.som.ou.edu/scavallo/real_time_plots.html
 
Well, I just woke up to being in the bullseye for the Mon/Tues rain event! The model they showed on the local news, gives GSP 4.12" of precip for the whole event!! :)
I'll let y'all figure out how this will end.....
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well, I just woke up to being in the bullseye for the Mon/Tues rain event! The model they showed on the local news, gives GSP 4.12" of precip for the whole event!! :)
I'll let y'all figure out how this will end.....
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Yes, woke up to see GFS is much wetter here also... Lingers around for a good bit too
 
Storm5 said:
Good read
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Our first strat warming event of the winter/fall season! Glad to hear! I hate waiting to February to wait for this voodoo to save us!
 
Storm5 said:
NOAA just released its winter forecast. Don't look, it's brutal . Warm and dry
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Has it ever shown anything else whenever a chance of a Nina was there? I don't think they were anywhere close to getting 2010-11 either.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, seems like the same sort of idea. Precipitation to me doesn't matter too much since above average correlates to precipitation in abundant amounts during warm periods, or so it seems. I'm more focused on temps which I'm hoping is a bust and we get colder.
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Yeah it seems a bit early to put out any winter forecast at this time anyway. I think next month will be telling with how the winter could play out so that would make more sense to wait.
 
Storm5 said:
NOAA just released its winter forecast. Don't look, it's brutal . Warm and dry
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When is the last time they had a seasonal outlook (esp. for winter) that was colder than normal for the SE? It always seems to be warm, dry, or in the best case scenario, equal chances. I don't even look at their seasonal outlooks anymore.
 
They don't like to put equal chances since that shows they have no clue. Lol.
 
NOAA's winter outlooks essentially regurgitate ENSO without much further rigorous analysis... While I tend to agree with the idea of a warmer and drier than normal winter in the SE US this winter, not sure about the distribution and intensity of the anomalies...
 
Webberweather53 said:
NOAA's winter outlooks essentially regurgitate ENSO without much further rigorous analysis... While I tend to agree with the idea of a warmer and drier than normal winter in the SE US this winter, not sure about the distribution and intensity of the anomalies...
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Wouldn't you agree it's too early to tell though? What if we actually had blocking this winter? Wouldn't that take time to know for sure?
 
Yeah as others said NOAA outlooks aren't to be taken all that seriously. With that being said I slightly disagree with Webber, I think this winter will be a lot closer to average. Which would be frigid compared to the last two winters.

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Any thoughts on Severe Weather with this coming cold? I see SPC already has a day three outlook in place.
 
SimeonNC said:
Yeah as others said NOAA outlooks aren't to be taken all that seriously. With that being said I slightly disagree with Webber, I think this winter will be a lot closer to average. Which would be frigid compared to the last two winters.

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Yeah anything near normal to me would mean periods of real cold mixed with warm at times. I think the swings in temps would certainly provide a window of opportunity for something good to pop up.
 
GaStorm said:
Wouldn't you agree it's too early to tell though? What if we actually had blocking this winter? Wouldn't that take time to know for sure?
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Some variables begin to reveal themselves by this time in the fall, and when you combine the long-term background state, warm background climates like this one and during the medieval warm period tend to favor less high latitude blocking over the Atlantic, background state inter annual tendencies which has favored a stronger than normal Greenland/Iceland Vortex, dynamical forcing (slight uptick in solar activity coupled w/ EQBO >>> less blocking), and ENSO which interferes w/ the standing planetary wave configuration and henceforth tends to reduce wave activity flux onto the polar vortex all are conducive to a stronger vortex. While some of the variables can certainly change, the ENSO forcing (NINA-esque) coupled w/ long term background state changes (AGW) and dynamical forcing all tend to skew the probabilities quite high for a warmer than normal winter around the SE US...
 
Not very educated with winter forecast or ENSO, i think its safe to say this Fall/Winter will have major temps swings. Not saying NOAA is right, but i think they will keep there forecast the same and safely go with an warm winter to only adjust in time if needed. Me personally, i could see it getting closer to avg on most cases. Just remeber, even if we were to face a warm winter, theres always plenty of chances for some artic cold waves with storms mixed in. This is the south, thats why its fun to track these things. Fun times ahead.
 
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