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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Really liking the gfs the past few runs now. Next week showing some love with temps, cool/cold. I think we are headed to a much better pattern far as temp wise.
 
accu35 said:
Really liking the gfs the past few runs now. Next week showing some love with temps, cool/cold. I think we are headed to a much better pattern far as temp wise.
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I would shoot it down, but since the Euro has a similar look, this may actually come past day 9. Only issue is that it doesn't plunge to our west per the GFS. Still not permanent, but it shows that it is more frequent than what we have seen. I can enjoy low 70s and 50s.
gfs_z500a_namer_36.png
ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png
 
Storm5 said:
Get ready for that look all winter. Big troughs west with a ridge east
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Probably be a lot of wedges , with highs in the upper 30s / low 40s, in SD land! It's good to have nothing to look forward to!
 
Sitting at 59 degrees as of 1:23 pm. Someone mentioned yesterday that our temps never seem to be cooler then modeled but always find a way to be warmer. Well my temps today are much cooler then what the models were showing just a few days ago. As of yesterday today’s forecast high was for 74 but that was dropped down to 70 today. But unless the clouds start clearing fast I don’t think I’ll get above 65 for a high. So that would be almost 10 degrees below what was originally forecast.
 
88/71 HI of 95! :(
What a great, fall-like day!
Think we broke a record today, record hi was 86 or 87
 
Pretty decent downpour. I probably got about an inch out of that one. Reminds me of the summer squalls on the coast.


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Pretty substantial signal for a recurving western Pacific typhoon on the EPS in week 2.... This makes sense given the low frequency background forcing shifts from the Western Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent & far western Pacific around this time. This longitudinal shift in forcing may accompanied by TCG and recurvature into the North Pacific jet argues for a major regime shift and break from the ongoing pattern in a few weeks. This pattern shift can be characterized as reinforcing the NINA bgd state w/ large-scale ridging dominating most of east-central North America in October to one favoring more frequent toughness and at least some punctuated anticyclonic wave breaking over the North Atlantic (-NAO ?) near the end of the month and into early November. The timing of this pattern change is also supported by canonical Weak La Nina temperature composites for October and November which show marked anomalous cooling over the eastern US between Oct & Nov. For what it's worth, I should mention here that of the 20 or so (rare) accumulating snowfall events east of the Appalachians in east-central NC during November (since 1895), approximately three-fourths of these have occurred during a cool biased ENSO neutral or La Nina event...
eps_z500a_nh_61.png

Screen Shot 2017-10-12 at 12.17.46 AM.png

October Weak La Nina US temperature composite
cd152.7.224.5.283.21.40.54.prcp.png

November Weak La Nina US temperature composite
cd152.7.224.5.283.21.42.43.prcp.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Pretty substantial signal for a recurving western Pacific typhoon on the EPS in week 2.... This makes sense given the low frequency background forcing shifts from the Western Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent & far western Pacific around this time. This longitudinal shift in forcing may accompanied by TCG and recurvature into the North Pacific jet argues for a major regime shift and break from the ongoing pattern in a few weeks. This pattern shift can be characterized as reinforcing the NINA bgd state w/ large-scale ridging dominating most of east-central North America in October to one favoring more frequent toughness and at least some punctuated anticyclonic wave breaking over the North Atlantic (-NAO ?) near the end of the month and into early November. The timing of this pattern change is also supported by canonical Weak La Nina temperature composites for October and November which show marked anomalous cooling over the eastern US between Oct & Nov. For what it's worth, I should mention here that of the 20 or so (rare) accumulating snowfall events east of the Appalachians in east-central NC during November (since 1895), approximately three-fourths of these have occurred during a cool biased ENSO neutral or La Nina event...
View attachment 1371

View attachment 1372

October Weak La Nina US temperature composite
View attachment 1374

November Weak La Nina US temperature composite
View attachment 1373
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Essentially, the combination of what could be a recurving typhoon in the western Pacific + changes in background tropical forcing w/ mean epicenter of upward motion shifting further east towards the West Pac warm pool & Nina climatology all favor at least more seasonable to perhaps cooler than normal weather after the 25th of October or so...
 
BHS1975 said:
The last November snowfall I remember was back in 98.


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Yeah that event was November 19 2000!

November 19 2000 NC Snowmap.gif

We had another, lesser known snow on November 21 2008 which accumulated to a dusting in isolated spots east of the Apps...

A few others worth noting... There are other storms in November 1924, 1926, 1929, 1935, 1947, 1950, 1953, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1971, & 1975 that weren't mentioned here that I've yet to analyze...
November 10-12 1987 NC Snowmap.png

November 11-12 1968 NC Snowmap.png

November 26-27 1938 NC Snowmap.png

November 19-20 1914 NC Snowmap.png

November 27-28 1912 NC Snowmap.png

November 25-28 1903 NC Snowmap.png
November 19 1901 SC Snow Map.jpg

November 28-29 1898 NC Snowmap.png
 
is there any way to know what the ENSO state was during the 1912-13 Winter? That year-- temperature-wise-- looks creepily like this year. And the Winter was mostly a dud, except for that late Nov snowstorm.
 
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