WEATHERBOYROY
Member
2019 october was a sizzler here too.....oct 3 2019 101degrees!It got to 100 here in early October 2019, which set our all-time record. Of course, that’s the RDU sensor…
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Pattern Octoburn
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
No mjo help so mid month cool is likely dead and now more likely to be AN with increasing tropical activity. This pattern may be susceptible to dry wedging over the top so that's cool I guess. La Nina falls particularly Octobers usually feature a cold nuke that's preceded by a hurricane.
NCSNOW
Member
Hazel was in a la nina fall,. 54-56 was triple year straight la nina i beleive.
NCSNOW
Member
Looks like euro suite brings a front through next Wednesday with some thunderboomers possible and halfway decent fresh air behind it. Be our next shot at some qpf, if correct
Brent
Member
That's a big front on the GFS at day 10
Ha! Everything is big on the GFS at day 10
We may get our first sub-50 degree reading of the season Friday morning! Oddly, the closest we’ve been to it so far (53) was way back on September 1st!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Your coldest temp in September was on the 1st ? That has to be extremely unusual.
Yep! We had a quite chilly start to the month.
Code:
000
CXUS52 KRAH 011445
CF6RDU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
STATION: RALEIGH NC
MONTH: SEPTEMBER
YEAR: 2025
LATITUDE: 35 52 N
LONGITUDE: 78 47 W
TEMPERATURE IN F: :pCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :pK WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
1 79 53 66 -11 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 7.0 17 40 M M 5 32 40
2 79 54 67 -9 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 17 30 M M 4 23 20
3 84 54 69 -7 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1.7 9 30 M M 2 24 120
4 89 56 73 -3 0 8 0.02 0.0 0 6.8 21 220 M M 5 28 250
5 93 67 80 4 0 15 0.00 0.0 0 8.1 15 230 M M 3 19 200
6 94 70 82 6 0 17 0.16 0.0 0 6.6 17 220 M M 6 13 27 230
7 74 62 68 -7 0 3 T 0.0 0 6.2 18 20 M M 9 1 27 40
8 77 58 68 -7 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 8.8 20 30 M M 5 28 50
9 76 56 66 -9 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 18 40 M M 8 26 360
10 74 64 69 -5 0 4 T 0.0 0 7.6 15 50 M M 9 1 21 30
11 79 63 71 -3 0 6 0.54 0.0 0 4.4 12 80 M M 8 1 17 130
12 82 61 72 -2 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 5.3 18 40 M M 5 12 24 40
13 81 55 68 -6 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 15 40 M M 3 20 40
14 80 57 69 -4 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 3.4 13 40 M M 7 17 30
15 79 61 70 -3 0 5 0.00 0.0 M 7.0 16 50 M M 8 24 40
16 72 62 67 -6 0 2 T 0.0 0 5.5 17 30 M M 7 24 20
17 74 61 68 -4 0 3 T 0.0 0 6.0 14 280 M M 8 19 290
18 85 59 72 0 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2.6 9 140 M M 3 14 300
19 91 62 77 5 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 2.6 8 40 M M 2 14 240
20 89 64 77 6 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 4.3 15 40 M M 3 1 22 100
21 81 64 73 2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 7.0 14 40 M M 5 1 18 50
22 86 59 73 2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 3.7 8 120 M M 5 22 120
23 92 58 75 5 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 12 210 M M 4 17 210
24 95 69 82 12 0 17 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 17 240 M M 5 26 220
25 93 73 83 13 0 18 0.04 0.0 0 6.9 21 210 M M 7 3 29 220
26 89 72 81 12 0 16 0.21 0.0 0 4.0 13 220 M M 9 13 18 180
27 81 68 75 6 0 10 0.07 0.0 0 1.4 8 290 M M 8 1 13 290
28 78 66 72 4 0 7 0.01 0.0 0 6.5 15 40 M M 9 20 30
29 70 67 69 1 0 4 0.68 0.0 0 7.5 14 40 M M 10 1 21 20
30 71 66 69 1 0 4 0.19 0.0 0 9.4 16 20 M M 10 1 26 20
================================================================================
SM 2467 1861 0 221 1.92 0.0 169.3 M 182
================================================================================
AV 82.2 62.0 5.6 FASTST M M 6 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 21 220 32 40
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2
STATION: RALEIGH NC
MONTH: SEPTEMBER
YEAR: 2025
LATITUDE: 35 52 N
LONGITUDE: 78 47 W
[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 72.1 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.92 1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.5 DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.23 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST: 95 ON 24 GRTST 24HR 0.82 ON 29-30 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST: 53 ON 1 3 = THUNDER
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS
TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL
GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW
X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 9
MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 6 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 5
MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 2
MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0
[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 0 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 5
DPTR FM NORMAL -15 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 19
TOTAL FM JUL 1 0 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 6
DPTR FM NORMAL -13
[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO. 221
DPTR FM NORMAL -22 [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1 2025 HIGHEST SLP 30.25 ON 8
DPTR FM NORMAL 286 LOWEST SLP 29.80 ON 25
[REMARKS]
#FINAL-09-25#
August's coolest temp here was 60ºF, while September's was 61ºF. August also had a lower average high than September by over a degree, 85.8ºF vs 87.0ºF
JHS
Member
Gone at 12z. Replaced by a closed ridge. 90-95 temps for many of us at day 10 on the GFS.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
JHS
Member
Cooler for a few days then both models have ridges over the southeast basically through the end of the runs and no sign of a major pattern change on them. It'll probably be into November for most of us to get below 40.
The last frame of the Euro is July like with 70-75 lows and dewpoints.
The last frame of the Euro is July like with 70-75 lows and dewpoints.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, I didn't look at the GEFS pattern, but the mean on temps says the 12z op is smoking crack anyway on the idea of mid 90s verifying.
B P calling out JHS
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
How can he be so certain there will be no more 90s ? One day next week is forecast to be around 85 in Charlotte. Just a few degrees higher and it could be close to 90!
Brent
Member
I can't wait until may when he posts no more 30s!
Octobuuuuuuuurrrrrrnnnnnn
I don't know, tbh. I tried the Vulcan mind meld technique with my computer with his post on the screen, but that route didn't yield any success.
sizzling melting dying roasting burning. no i wont post anything after the weekend
Pretty big shifts on mid to long range models. The 6z Euro AI actually says the hottest day for us in the whole run would be in the low to mid-80s next Wednesday.
Brent
Member
People are starting to hype here again for sure after they gave up the other day
It's really not even that bad... The mornings are a lot better than they were a couple months ago and it's not even close to records but I think it's more how long it's been going on and the fact it seems there was no end in sight
49 this morning, first 40s since June 1st
I wish the cooler and more fall like temperatures would hang around until the middle of October, at least, until the ridge builds back in over the East Coast and temperatures return to above normal again. The first week of deer season is coming on the 18th and I do not like hunting in hot weather. There's not much fun in sitting in a deer blind sweating and trying to keep still when there is a cloud of mosquitoes humming around you.
NCSNOW
Member
Drop dead Gorgeous / Perfect wx out today. We might hit 70-72 with full on sun. Just don't get any better ( Minus a winter storm).
Greensboro might hit 77-78 Sun/Mon/Tues, before front comes in Wed and knocks us back down to low 70's.
Greensboro might hit 77-78 Sun/Mon/Tues, before front comes in Wed and knocks us back down to low 70's.
NCSNOW
Member
Everyone's Favorite Torch Model/ 6z GFS has front come through Thursday, but full on wedge , BN , Rain advertised for next weekend. Even Has a Nice Cane go up the east coast for Lex and LF in the NE Conus mid October.
Shettley will run out of posterboard material soon, if he looses the GFS LR.
Shettley will run out of posterboard material soon, if he looses the GFS LR.
NCSNOW
Member
Greensboro has hit 90 only once since July: August 17th. It will be late next April / May, before we have a chance to hit it again, at the earliest.
just for fun here's a nuke of a trough the 6z euro ai dropped dead south from eastern canada
Out of curiosity, what kind of temps is it spitting out with that?
Also, wasn’t that the time period that was supposed to be a torch a day or two ago?
verbatim its lows in the 20s for the mtns, upper 30s/low 40s for the rest of the carolinas/northern third of GA. highs in the upper 50s/low 60s with sun. ask the ensembles though...Out of curiosity, what kind of temps is it spitting out with that?
Also, wasn’t that the time period that was supposed to be a torch a day or two ago?
of course, the AI ensemble is more excited
i'll note that the 0z euro op was the closest of any other model to doing anything like that AI run, but due to giant difference in the position of ridging (or lack thereof on the AI) the op was unable to make the connection and drag that slug of a trough south. but that's overanalysis of a day 10 model run
That might be enough cold air intrusion to bring an early frost to many areas in North Carolina. I know this is only one model and it is ten days away and out in fantasy land but it would be the first time in quite a while that we have had frost in the RDU area before Halloween and an even more rare occurrence before the State Fair begins in mid October.
tennessee storm
Member
Back door cold front
Of course the fun AI nonsense is gone at 12z but pretty good signal for another backdoor front saving the day late next week
JHS
Member
The 18z GFS is crazy in the long range for the southern plains. Day after day of 90-95+ with one day over 100 from near Dallas to Houston. The Carolinas and east GA look to escape this for now.
iGRXY
Member
Already well into the 50’s with a cool breeze outside. It really feels like fall
Tsappfrog20
Member
48 at RDU this morning!!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
47, nice taste of Fall
100
Avalanche
Member
We need the warmth to continue for a bit. The sick and elderly aren’t prepared for chilly nights on the porch huddled in blankets just to keep themselves warm so they can enjoy their evening.
Plus, when they leave their comfy facility and controlled environment it’s an unhealthy shock to the system to suddenly get cold.
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