ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hit 40 even. Feels amazing outside and makes me wonder if 30s are possible tonight. Low was 46 but we passed it around midnight.
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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
smast16
Member
This ain't a bad pattern if it isnt gonna snow again, because let's face it, this nuking Canada / crappy Pacific keeps repeating itself. I know, I know, iTs OnlY OcToBeR, but we've already been living this pattern on and off for the last 6 weeks.
TL
R. Don't get your hopes up.
Ward Cleaver
Member
Morning low of 39.6 north of GSO. Well below the RAH forecast.
I think there is a good chance. From RAH:
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-180800-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Very isolated and light frost is possible Monday morning
as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s in outlying and rural
areas of the NC Piedmont.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
We roasted it up there all of September, so far all of October and models continue this into November, I’m sorry but this is getting to a point where it would start to have a effectThis ain't a bad pattern if it isnt gonna snow again, because let's face it, this nuking Canada / crappy Pacific keeps repeating itself. I know, I know, iTs OnlY OcToBeR, but we've already been living this pattern on and off for the last 6 weeks.
TL
Just a great pacific pattern 
Mr. Golf
Member
Time to start seriously believing in two falls if this continues into mid November. Dont say I didn't warn you?
Mr. Golf
Member
Fro, I understand you like warm weather. I get it. We all get it. At least I was fortunate last winter to see some action in February.
It’s a very nice morning
If I'm not mistaken, this morning was the first time DFW dipped below 50*F (a low of 47*F) since 4/21.
So close to busting out a massive SE ridge too.
Looks like last year to me. Not surprising with the same Enso state and warm waters around the Maritime continent. Will we waste another year of good blocking? I hope not because blocks are hard to come by anymore. The start of the last decade started with 2 in a row as well. 09-10 and first half of 10-11 had blocking and we did well. Then we got nada again until last year where we crashed and burned anyway. If we're in a cycle where we go almost a decade between good blocking winters I hope we don't screw this one up. I know blocking in Oct doesn't always translate to blocking in winter but just like last year this one seems to want to hang around.
Not this crap again…..
This GFS run looks more prone to ridging once that trough moves off
This however before that chance of ridging looks like a first potential threat at some frost 
Here it comes looking better this run 
Lucky for us we get a nice cool high pressure filtering in some CAD so we don’t heat up like we could
Close to getting a legit Arctic tap with this look 
CAD buys us enough time for a legit looking cold front here .. severe weather ?? This thing looks meaty 
Dang not enough ridging to drag that TPV down because the pacific is to zonal/fast, but it’s nice seeing a TPV on our side 