Pattern October Thread

[SD]

Lol not moving, even in subtropical climate region by October start to get a little reprieve from the dews.

I'm hoping that maybe we can get enough of a low off the coast we can get into some 50 degree dews. Gfs and icon seem to be the most enthusiastic the euro not at all

 

[Zander98al]

Storms last night in the Birmingham area knocked a tree through my pastors house missing his 4 kids and he and his wife. These storms have been rough along with all the saturated ground.

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[Metwannabe]

I'm hoping that maybe we can get enough of a low off the coast we can get into some 50 degree dews. Gfs and icon seem to be the most enthusiastic the euro not at all

Let's hope so I'd hate to have to move

 

[SD]

This can shift SW to you would be fine with me lol. Don't want that much rain, farmers needed that weeks ago not in the middle of harvest season but if we gonna feel like summer might as well have some interesting weather to go along with it I guess.

Yeah looks like peanuts and soybeans left to harvest. I'm not even sure a 1-3 inch rain would cause an issue since it's been so dry lately.

 

[Metwannabe]

Yeah looks like peanuts and soybeans left to harvest. I'm not even sure a 1-3 inch rain would cause an issue since it's been so dry lately.

1-3 probably not (3 might be getting close) but if one of those 6" amounts like the CMC is showing actually occurs, different scenario. That low is the wild card

 

[SD]

Let's hope so I'd hate to have to move

I wonder if daily avg on dew points is a thing? I guess it would trend close to avg lows

 

[NorthDFWwx]

As of today, DFW is at 2.1*F above average for October.

That number should go up notably after tomorrow.

 

[Metwannabe]

I wonder if daily avg on dew points is a thing? I guess it would trend close to avg lows

Yeah I would think so too, all I know is avg. highs drop below 70 around the 25th and right now it's struggling to drop below that at night lol

 

[SD]

Yeah I would think so too, all I know is avg. highs drop below 70 around the 25th and right now it's struggling to drop below that at night lol

The overnight models didn't look terrible in the extended.

 

[SD]

Posting the 384 gfs for effect but the warming and disturbance starts at D7. It has support from the gefs and geps

 

[SD]

Watch the Davis strait region over the coming days

Basically an omega block here, can we undercut it? Pacific may not play nice enough to

 

[smast16]

At least in 2018 the pattern turned cooler on the 10th, and in 2019 it flipped on the 4th or 5th.

GEM and Euro offer no hope. Our only hope comes from the GFS, so lets just say i'm not overly enthused.

 

[SD]

Lol that pac jet

 

[LickWx]

Perhaps moving out of the Subtropical Climate region would help? ?

I personally feel the subtropical category is too expansive . It includes places like New York city which despite all its UHI still barely has January means above freezing . It almost includes Cincinnati Ohio now even .

 

[smast16]

Lol that pac jetView attachment 92158

That has the potential to be nice, or horrific with a few shifts in either direction.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Pretty wet 48 hours coming up for WNC.

 

[BufordWX]

I’d watch these storms as they move further north for a brief tornado potential, especially if they continue to organize.

 

[Tarheel1]

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

-25F anomalies on an ensemble mean past day 7?!

WTF


View attachment 92142

? I wish those would move East of the Apps.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Models are still roasting our source region into towards the last week of October … that’s No good