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October Odyssey
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
While I’m not saying the 300 hour gfs is right, I could see this happening if we get a nice northern stream trough that phases with what’s left over of a old trough around here with a nice western ridge that develops, again not saying it’s gonna happen but I could see that happening
smast16
Member
All this cold here in October is leaving me with a knot in the bottom of my stomach. I think it's leftover ptsd from the last few years.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Last October was hotter than hell and winter sucked lol
CraggyRider
Member
Well, that concisely sums it up ?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Technically only the first 12 days of October were hot last year. After that it was very fall like.
smast16
Member
It was hot till mid October and then it went cold.
CraggyRider
Member
As I recall the big cold front came in on Halloween and the ski slopes were opening shortly after. Last October was hot then about two weeks of mild Fall weather then winter. So Fall lasted about 2 weeks last year (at least around here); that's the best of my faulty recollection. Enjoying this October so far but could do without Delta heading this way.
So far, this fall has acted quite fall-like. I have no problem with anything so far. Further, I don't really buy into causality or correlation of fall temps to winter temps. You can find analogs and statistics to show anything you want. But I'm not convinced a warm or cold October or September or November or October and September or October and November or September plus the first half of October plus the second third of November minus the last day of November means anything at all wrt the winter.
Correct! Winter will likely suck regardless of what fall does. Just seems to be the way it is anymore.
The cold in the first half of November last year was impressive. Quite a few mornings in the low to mid 20s here
So be honest; if we get a big Halloween storm followed by cold in early to mid November, will you be a bit nervous (..more than normal) about the upcoming winter?
I've seen years and years of people posting analogs for/against winter based on Oct/Nov temps. I've learned to take ALL with skepticism. What happens, happens. Really, all it takes for most winter lovers in the SE is one big winter storm. Those can occur during el ninos, la ninas, etc.
You are correct. It just takes one storm a lot of times to make a good winter. Everyone that experienced the January 1988 storm will still refer to it even now, especially for how much of a widespread event it was for the entire south. However when you look at the winter of ‘87-‘88 as a whole, it was fairly boring outside of that one storm and the cold that followed, but if ask people how that winter was, most would say it was really good.
Probably not anymore. I used to give it some consideration. But honestly, I don't think it makes a lot of difference. I don't see how, scientifically, that it would matter beyond that of being a coincidence.
As long as you go into winter with the expectation of above normal temps, any wintry precipitation you get is just icing on a crap filled cake.
BufordWX
Member
The 12z GFS has quite the long lasting ULL. It meanders over parts of the Southeast for about a week. Of course it’s way out there, but still interesting to see.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Seems a little odd for Mid October doesn't it ?
You're probably right. I can't give any scientific reasoning on why a cold first half of November would signal a warmer overall winter pattern. I guess it comes from so many memories where it was cold during that period, we got excited about a great upcoming winter, but ultimately we were disappointed. I'm sure somebody (Larry) could throw out stats showing just as many warm starts to November ending in disappointment; which goes with normal SE living.
NoSnowATL
Member
I feel like I’ve seen this before. ?
olhausen
Member
Brent
Member
2nd wettest month of the year here
???
Also creeping back above normal yay
???
Also creeping back above normal yay
MattLabenzwx
Member
Happy birthday to my bro, @Myfrotho704_ !!!
Thanks da- I mean man !!!
Euro went stupid end of run, pretty much every composite is favorable for cold lol 
GFS is showing the cold as well. Right after day 10 it drops dew points below freezing for most on this board. That would at least signal our first low elevation frost for many and maybe the first freeze for some. **Frost or freeze is good with me; anything to finally kill the bugs.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Is it just me or are the mosquitoes more active than they usually are in October ?
smast16
Member
Not for me. I haven't been bit in 2-3 weeks, and I'm a magnet.
EPS isn't far off. If we can't get the wedge front through this weekend/early next week and Delta stays west it's going to be ugly over the weekend into early next week with highs in in the low to mid 80s and dews in the upper 60s to around 70, we will be looking forward to the next trough by this point
12z GFS is showing very little wedge (and Delta stays west). But you would think with that high to the NW/N a wedge could push southward. Looks like at hour 132 it was trying up in N. VA (more than at 6z). I guess something to keep an eye on. We know that CADs can overperform some; or not be modeled correctly.
The 12z EPS looks even better than 00z! Note that this is run-run-change
BufordWX
Member
So I just learned that OKC somehow averages a “trace” of snow in the month of October. So, that means it’s technically snow season for me.
The GFS-para is also the first model I have seen that shows snow here, albeit just barely.
The GFS-para is also the first model I have seen that shows snow here, albeit just barely.
Those anafrontals work
EPS mean looks awesome post D10
Give me all the omega block
whatalife
Moderator
smast16
Member
Rates will overcome!!!
Why stupid, maybe our winter pattern is returning back to “normal”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
No sir warmth is our normal now. We may have a cold winter occasionally, but long gone are the years of sustained cold and double digit snowfall years. Believe it or not those used to be common for this area prior to the 90s. Now its been almost 30 years here since a double digit year. Thats not coincidence.
iGRXY
Member
We had a foot in 2011.