• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

October Odyssey

wxdaniel said:
I’ve been burned by one to many. ICON is no exception.

But I digress GFS is probably on the same par.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
ICON honestly has handled this system somewhat well and while it had to much interaction between the NS/SS (barely anything cutoff on it) it showed interaction towards us which models catches on to yesterday, it was also the first model to show a TC 4B43DBAD-0AC8-44A3-8DBE-669A52C17EC6.png3E1C4D4C-B08A-4426-A595-3E60134DF0DC.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ICON honestly has handled this system somewhat well and while it had to much interaction between the NS/SS (barely anything cutoff on it) it showed interaction towards us which models catches on to yesterday, it was also the first model to show a TC View attachment 51130View attachment 51131
Click to expand...

Honestly, I wouldn’t trust the ICON on the SER. I should have been more clear about that. Other then “smaller” features it hasn’t handled our ridge well.

I wouldn’t dismiss RDU for now receiving any precipitation from both front and zeta just yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
wxdaniel said:
Honestly, I wouldn’t trust the ICON on the SER. I should have been more clear about that. Other then “smaller” features it hasn’t handled our ridge well.

I wouldn’t dismiss RDU for now receiving any precipitation from both front and zeta just yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be shocked to see a near shutout. Best jet dynamics are north and west so the PRE will be in the Ohio Valley/mid atlantic maybe into the NE and the track of the system itself will keep the rain associated with the core of the system in the western piedmont and mountains. The only way that I can see this area really getting into the rain with zeta is if we can capitalize on some weak divergence aloft with pwats of 1.8-2 and get a few shallow but efficient showers going late Wednesday. That being said Thursday afternoon is interesting for most of nc as the base of the trough moves into a slightly unstable atmosphere

Edit to add:Just thinking back historically this track would be on the lower end precipitation wise but the higher end severe wise
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be shocked to see a near shutout. Best jet dynamics are north and west so the PRE will be in the Ohio Valley/mid atlantic maybe into the NE and the track of the system itself will keep the rain associated with the core of the system in the western piedmont and mountains. The only way that I can see this area really getting into the rain with zeta is if we can capitalize on some weak divergence aloft with pwats of 1.8-2 and get a few shallow but efficient showers going late Wednesday. That being said Thursday afternoon is interesting for most of nc as the base of the trough moves into a slightly unstable atmosphere

Edit to add:Just thinking back historically this track would be on the lower end precipitation wise but the higher end severe wise
Click to expand...

Yeah nam spits out some strong storms after the remnants passes thru around CLT with still a left over 40+kt LLJ but winds more unidirectional with the main system, however lapse rates and cape is extremely poor, the faster the remnants move out the more cape recovers
Plenty of forcing tho 11787473-B2A6-4D7F-A6E6-9A9771E97872.png23056331-A3F4-4049-A3E8-21DC226F7410.png3BB23500-BB06-41EB-9861-7D0A8FC1626D.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah nam spits out some strong storms after the remnants passes thru around CLT with still a left over 40+kt LLJ but winds more unidirectional with the main system, however lapse rates and cape is extremely poor, the faster the remnants move out the more cape recovers
Plenty of forcing tho View attachment 51132View attachment 51133View attachment 51134
Click to expand...
Lots of ML drying there. Might be a day where only 1-2 storms get going but could be pretty impressive
 
wxdaniel said:
Honestly, I wouldn’t trust the ICON on the SER. I should have been more clear about that. Other then “smaller” features it hasn’t handled our ridge well.

I wouldn’t dismiss RDU for now receiving any precipitation from both front and zeta just yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It's literally a 2-3 day forecast, the model is handling the SER just fine.
 
SD said:
Lots of ML drying there. Might be a day where only 1-2 storms get going but could be pretty impressive
Click to expand...
Yeah still potent LLJ + mid level drying + high DCAPE and a weak cap with plenty of forcing is sure a interesting combo
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
That Big patch of dry air aloft reminds me of April 2011, shear/SRH, heck no and thermos not really
Lapse rates suck tho 9E6D0EF2-04B1-4AA9-A3E9-BE2ECF18FD69.pngE4E2BCDB-78EF-4CF9-B1C7-D74CF7D6D064.png
 
Brent said:
Definitely one of the coldest October days ever here

Please be a sign of winter lol

View attachment 51159
Click to expand...
I’m always nervous of cold October’s! Even here they say white in October, leads to warm thanksgiving and Christmas! So we shall see
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’m always nervous of cold October’s! Even here they say white in October, leads to warm thanksgiving and Christmas! So we shall see
Click to expand...
Lol, that means they get snow in October with enough frequency to warrant such a saying! Amazing! I can't really think of an equivalent here other than the cold because we certainly don't snow in October or almost never in November.
 
Starting to notice that models are separating the remnants and the main system itself a lot more, starting to wonder if that could allow the severe threat to go up (wind)
 
Lickwx said:
Lol, that means they get snow in October with enough frequency to warrant such a saying! Amazing! I can't really think of an equivalent here other than the cold because we certainly don't snow in October or almost never in November.
Click to expand...
Or almost never in December, or January, or February....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top