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October Odyssey

Lickwx said:
To those using the Canadian, I don't trust that model a single bit. Its always way too cold. It has not seen a cold front it didnt think had potential to smash records.
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I tend to use the GFS and euro more. The big difference (in temps) in the above pic I showed is the Canadian has a storm with backside frontal rains that allow us to cool down so much. But as you said, I don't trust this setup until other models jump on board.
 
canadian has a wound up 995 storm over NE NC which pulls enough cold down over the higher elevations of northern NC Mtns. Euro not as wound up and positioned to do the same trick.


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Not the nicest evening out there; upper 60s with high humidity isn't my cup of tea for mid October. Resisting turning on the ac and waiting impatiently for that front later this week! :mad:
 
Sleet City USA said:
Great agreement from ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NAM on frontal passage timing for Friday. IMBY dropping from mid 70s in early afternoon to ~60 or lower by the evening.
Idk if anybody else cares about the timing of a front but me, but i love it lol
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It’ll stay in the 70s through 9-10 o’clock! Those damn mountains!
 
Mountains are on low watch for some wet flakes with this frontal passage.

NAM is tantalizingly close for my area and actually has some snow falling in the highest elevations. Would not be surprised at all to see some flakes fly briefly up above 4500'.

Very low chance but its remotely possible.

nam.png

My sounding. high mountains surface are 33-35.
nam_2020101312_084_36.14--82.42.png
 
GFS has much more rain with the fropa on Friday than previous runs, allows for an odd temp map. Nothing crazy, 0.5"+ in central NC northward
gfs_T2m_seus_14.png
 
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