Severe October 23-25 Severe Potential

[Myfrotho704_]

Also would it matter that it hits past peak heating?

Maybe right after but that’s a nice 35-45kt low level jet showing up, which would transport instability nicely

 

[Myfrotho704_]

While not as impressive as the NAM, moisture return looks pretty good on the HRRR, I wonder how much it mixes things out on Monday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here we go

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man, those are some extremely impressive Hodographs

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Looks like the 3km is trying to pop some isolated stuff out ahead of this main area that could develop … those could be nasty but isolated

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This looks like what the globals are trying to show, something to watch for bust potential, is if we mix out Monday around the western Piedmont

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Slight risk all of western Carolinas including Wilkes Monday. Leaf season gonna go bye bye

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This nam run looks ominous

 

[Jessy89]

A sounding in upstate Sc around Gsp yikes This is the NAM


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[Jessy89]

Slight risk all of western Carolinas including Wilkes Monday. Leaf season gonna go bye bye

If that nam is right. I could see a moderate risk issued somewhere in the Carolinas or Georgia


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[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty unusual parameters on the NAM, with tons of low level shear/SRH

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam 3km coming into range.

 

[SD]

Pretty unusual parameters on the NAM, with tons of low level shear/SRHView attachment 93387View attachment 93388View attachment 93389View attachment 93390

I'm just wondering if we get enough shear to offset forcing and divergence aloft to get more of a cellular nature or if this stuff just fires along the PFT and its a linear higher end wind threat with some hail. I'm also thinking there's some chance to barf out an OFB here from the mountain/foothills/west piedmont early on

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 93391

I'm just wondering if we get enough shear to offset forcing and divergence aloft to get more of a cellular nature or if this stuff just fires along the PFT and its a linear higher end wind threat with some hail. I'm also thinking there's some chance to barf out an OFB here from the mountain/foothills/west piedmont early on

I’m getting linear vibes off this, certainly could be a few supercells tho ahead or in the line given the type of shear we’re dealing with aloft, and about that last thing that’s quite possible towards C NC, models have been trying to hint at some dewpoint minimum somewhere in western/central NC

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Nam 3km coming into range. View attachment 93392View attachment 93393View attachment 93394View attachment 93395

Oh god. I would love to see what the experimental tornado product is showing for us in day 3

 

[SD]

I’m getting linear vibes off this, certainly could be a few supercells tho ahead or in the line given the type of shear we’re dealing with aloft, and about that last thing that’s quite possible towards C NC, models have been trying to hint at some dewpoint minimum somewhere in western/central NCView attachment 93399View attachment 93401

Yeah I think the real chance of getting supercells will be immediately east of the mountains into the western piedmont during the early stages of the event.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

What I also don’t like is seeing a late evening and overnight time threat. I hope people are aware

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah I think the real chance of getting supercells will be immediately east of the mountains into the western piedmont during the early stages of the event.

Yeah modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie

 

[Tarheel1]

Nicole is on top of it!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nice uptick in moisture return on the RAP for the last 3 runs