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Severe October 23-25 Severe Potential

this might be a issue on the day of our severe wx on the hrrr/the setup in general. Hrrr loves overmixing/having dewpoints to low 144ADE34-92FB-46EA-99A1-E55DE531927E.pngB733E54C-8BD7-4AFF-A149-0652CAF4ABA4.png
 
I would think the HRRR improves as we get closer it’s usually corrected on that over mixing issue at least some by the time you get closer to the event .. of course that will be the only thing that will inhibit this threat so just something to watch on all models moving forward … CAMS looked nice tho
 
I’d bet on a line of storms with wind being the main threat because even if moisture return is disrupted, there would still be a few several hundred joules of SBcape+ TD spreads which would encourage outflow dominant stuff, but you still have the speed shear aloft to keep organization, if there’s more moisture return tho then modeled then chances of SB supercells increase
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr has been struggling and underwhelming with moisture return today View attachment 93493View attachment 93494
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Just as suspected this can have huge implications for tomorrow but all we can do is just watch it .. can you look at soundings for eastern NC with a possible first wave of spotty cells that try to develop earlier on Monday? Could be interesting if we keep having these moisture return issues maybe more coverage
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
HRRR completely lost our moisture for tomorrow lol View attachment 93495View attachment 93496
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I haven't been following this much so this has probably been said. IMO the HRRR's weakest link is it's DPs it has a horrible mixing bias.

For example here is yesterdays 18z run vs reality right now. It had me mixing to 40 but I'm at 52 right now. Not saying it's going to be 10 off tmrw. But I'd for sure bet on them being higher than it's forecast.

8DBCFD9D-9678-4B92-BF8A-FFCA302147AC.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Closer to the Virginia border looks to be the better spot from what models have shown recently but that could mean linear stuff up there turns into cellular but isolated further south
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This seems to be the case here frequently. We either get renegades or the squall line breaks up and becomes isolated stuff.
 
Hrrr is struggling badly with dewpoints, in fact even after HR 0 it still is to low, it’s shows Charlotte at 44 for analysis when KCLT has 52 right now
It basically showed many areas in NC especially being in the 40s around this time from earlier runs, when in reality there in the low to near mid 50sD4760E87-E3F3-43C0-96D9-374BDF525BF1.gifC5FFE4B5-8558-44A2-8FCB-9234A3C45603.gif
 
Worried about the wind damage potential roughly from Boone to Winston. Could see some destructive 80mph
Gusts. With sharp cutoff to little to nothing for say mount airy and Statesville it’s gonna be a linear corridor of power outages I may chase this one at the base of 421 near Chick-fil-A Wilkesboro would ideal to have a straight shot west bound as it gains momentum E to Elkin, Yadkinville, Rural Hall.
 
3 PDS WARNINGS BACK TO BACK TO BACK. VIOLENT TORNADOES ON THE GROUND IN MISSOURI.
 
Debris being lifted 20000 feet in the hair with debris ball almost 3 miles wide
 
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