Rap coming into range looks linear 
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Severe October 23-25 Severe Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
this might be a issue on the day of our severe wx on the hrrr/the setup in general. Hrrr loves overmixing/having dewpoints to low 
HRRR isn’t that impressive kinda sucks with dews in the Piedmont, but does have a line 
I might get onset ice with those low DPs
So outflowy
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL starting to hype up the storm chances here Monday.
Nam looks the same maybe a little less excited
Hi res models taking a step towards a more linear threat with a few kinks .. still though I’m seeing bow echo potential and certainly smashing winds being a big threat here
I would think the HRRR improves as we get closer it’s usually corrected on that over mixing issue at least some by the time you get closer to the event .. of course that will be the only thing that will inhibit this threat so just something to watch on all models moving forward … CAMS looked nice tho
Here’s the NAM still a go with parameters .. I’m thinking the HRRR is still missing the mark on overmixing and such as it usually does this far out
That thing off shore tomorrow might act to limit the overall severe. More clouds, potentially interrupted moist return and maybe a little subsidence on the back side of the wave
Hrrr has a weird area of mid level warmth but has a nice line of storms 
I’d bet on a line of storms with wind being the main threat because even if moisture return is disrupted, there would still be a few several hundred joules of SBcape+ TD spreads which would encourage outflow dominant stuff, but you still have the speed shear aloft to keep organization, if there’s more moisture return tho then modeled then chances of SB supercells increase
NAM really downtrending further east due to that system off the SE coast 
The now casting will be interesting
Hrrr has been struggling and underwhelming with moisture return today 
HRRR completely lost our moisture for tomorrow lol 
Just as suspected this can have huge implications for tomorrow but all we can do is just watch it .. can you look at soundings for eastern NC with a possible first wave of spotty cells that try to develop earlier on Monday? Could be interesting if we keep having these moisture return issues maybe more coverage