lol mixed out 51 dew in Charlotte tomorrow on the hrrr 
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Severe October 23-25 Severe Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
I haven't been following this much so this has probably been said. IMO the HRRR's weakest link is it's DPs it has a horrible mixing bias.
For example here is yesterdays 18z run vs reality right now. It had me mixing to 40 but I'm at 52 right now. Not saying it's going to be 10 off tmrw. But I'd for sure bet on them being higher than it's forecast.
NAM is pretty soft on coverage but still has some solid parameters 
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Zander98al
Guest
Two strong rotations in missouri 
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Zander98al
Guest
Debris ball 
Closer to the Virginia border looks to be the better spot from what models have shown recently but that could mean linear stuff up there turns into cellular but isolated further south
Avalanche
Member
This seems to be the case here frequently. We either get renegades or the squall line breaks up and becomes isolated stuff.
I think we’re still in a good spot I would be more worried south of us
Hrrr is struggling badly with dewpoints, in fact even after HR 0 it still is to low, it’s shows Charlotte at 44 for analysis when KCLT has 52 right now
It basically showed many areas in NC especially being in the 40s around this time from earlier runs, when in reality there in the low to near mid 50s
It basically showed many areas in NC especially being in the 40s around this time from earlier runs, when in reality there in the low to near mid 50s
Worried about the wind damage potential roughly from Boone to Winston. Could see some destructive 80mph
Gusts. With sharp cutoff to little to nothing for say mount airy and Statesville it’s gonna be a linear corridor of power outages I may chase this one at the base of 421 near Chick-fil-A Wilkesboro would ideal to have a straight shot west bound as it gains momentum E to Elkin, Yadkinville, Rural Hall.
Gusts. With sharp cutoff to little to nothing for say mount airy and Statesville it’s gonna be a linear corridor of power outages I may chase this one at the base of 421 near Chick-fil-A Wilkesboro would ideal to have a straight shot west bound as it gains momentum E to Elkin, Yadkinville, Rural Hall.
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Zander98al
Guest
My goodness!!!!!! Two big debris ball!!!
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Zander98al
Guest
Awful!!!! PDS WARNING
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Zander98al
Guest
3 PDS WARNINGS BACK TO BACK TO BACK. VIOLENT TORNADOES ON THE GROUND IN MISSOURI.
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Zander98al
Guest
Debris being lifted 20000 feet in the hair with debris ball almost 3 miles wide
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
Lostnthaweather85
Member
Ridiculous!
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Zander98al
Guest
Looks like the town got hit.
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Zander98al
Guest
St Mary took a direct hit from a strong tornado..
