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Pattern October '22

EmersonGA said:
It’s weird hearing rain again. I kept looking for the source of the sound around the house and took me a minute to realize it’s pouring.
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Whatever database the Tempest updates its rainfall estimate from has been awful tonight. Its backtracked .1" twice. My old school rain gauge has .6" and the Tempest says exactly half that amount, and it is still raining.
 
J.C. said:
Whatever database the Tempest updates its rainfall estimate from has been awful tonight. Its backtracked .1" twice. My old school rain gauge has .6" and the Tempest says exactly half that amount, and it is still raining.
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I turned off that and haven’t looked back after it took away a verified deluge that happened to be very local. I got .59” tonight so looks like we matched up pretty close.
 
Latest 12z GFS continues to show a dryer solution for Halloween. The below is for ~6pm on Halloween. Does show some rain in central SC, but the local NWS for Columbia only has a 30% chance of showers.
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gawxnative said:
Well it has been announced during the 4 pm newscast thet after almost 41 years, Glenn Burns is retiring from WSB TV effective end of the month. No surprise that Brad Nitz will be the new Chief Met there.
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Actually his last day is November 22. He says that he has been asked to come back and join Brad Nitz for major storm coverages so this may not be the last we see him.
 
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Snowlover87 said:
Actually his last day is November 22. He says that he has been asked to come back and join Brad Nitz for major storm coverages so this may not be the last we see him.
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I based the "end of the month" off the Facebook post of his comments initially on the air. The "official" posts are for November 22nd.
 
Euro (12z) continues to show a wet forecast for ~6pm on Halloween.
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The GFS is trending that way as well.
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And RAH thinks there'll now be rain:
"Precipitation chances increase Monday into Monday night as
subtropical ridging builds into the Southeast ahead of the
amplifying trough to the west, strengthening a 70-100kt jet from
southern TX into the southern Mid-Atlantic by 18z Monday/00z
Tuesday. The enhancement in upper forcing will work in tandem with a
trailing cool/occluded front and increased moisture transport in the
925-850mb layer Monday night into Tuesday. Mostly light to moderate
stratiform is expected, but latest runs of the GFS depict 50-150
MUCAPE overspreads central NC Monday night which may slightly
enhance precipitation rates during this time."
 
weatherfide said:
I remember when he took over for Russ Minshew.
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I do as well ... I always thought Russ was a good Met back in the day. But he got himself into a mess ... I wonder where he is today?

(Update: Just saw that Minshew passed away from a brain tumor back in 1993.) Also read that he was acquitted of accusations.) Sorry for the banter!! Glenn Burns has had a good run on WSB-TV
 
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JHS said:

| U.S. Drought Monitor

droughtmonitor.unl.edu droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Getting worse with no end in sight. Thanks to Ian most of NC and SC not too bad yet but that looks to change.
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By the end of November, the whole Midwest and SE, will be dryer than Death Valley, CA
 
Looking somewhat likely (not a lock) that the +SCAND along with weakening MJO pulse should favor a slow but eventual process of a -NAO later in the month, next 3 weeks look dominated by a -PNA/strong southeast ridge, but there are hints that we’re gonna eventually try to get blocking going later in the month, note the Scandinavian ridge, typically -NAO follow a couple weeks after. As for the pacific side of things, the effect off +AAM typically is seen weeks to a month later, watch for some sort of jet extension around the end of the month. Twitter peeps have noted this, but it’s almost of if we’re watching last year all over again evolve, but a month earlier. Just remember, that things can go wrong and have before. But still, over the next few weeks we’re gonna see a significantly strong -PNA (some models throw a TPV near Seattle (same ish happened last year as well).FE33FFC2-9A86-47CB-A3D0-2020889B30E9.pngE3696286-B02F-4563-9EB5-C916F72AFC5F.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looking somewhat likely (not a lock) that the +SCAND along with weakening MJO pulse should favor a slow but eventual process of a -NAO later in the month, next 3 weeks look dominated by a -PNA/strong southeast ridge, but there are hints that we’re gonna eventually try to get blocking going later in the month, note the Scandinavian ridge, typically -NAO follow a couple weeks after. As for the pacific side of things, the effect off +AAM typically is seen weeks to a month later, watch for some sort of jet extension around the end of the month. Twitter peeps have noted this, but it’s almost of if we’re watching last year all over again evolve, but a month earlier. Just remember, that things can go wrong and have before. But still, over the next few weeks we’re gonna see a significantly strong -PNA (some models throw a TPV near Seattle (same ish happened last year as well).View attachment 123308View attachment 123313
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At least we're not having a cold November.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Good evening. I'm reporting 59 and overcast in N Raleigh.

Long time no see gents! Looking forward to another disappointing winter outside the mountains. ??️
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Who knows. Just another four weeks and we can start looking at the models to hope for a winter storm. That would also align with when Webber is talking about favorable blocking setting up.
 
Took a trip over to Ellijay and back over Fort Mtn. The wind has blown half our leaves off at the house but the sheltered side of the mountain was stunning.
 

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EmersonGA said:
Took a trip over to Ellijay and back over Fort Mtn. The wind has blown half our leaves off at the house but the sheltered side of the mountain was stunning.
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Great pics! I just went up to the Sylva area for the weekend. Anywhere above 3500' is just about bare, mostly above 1500' is past peak, although there are good spots. Our area is around peak now.

Outside Sylva, NC 10/29 - 2400'
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Carters Lake, Gilmer County, GA 1076' - 10/24

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Downtown Roswell, GA 1072' - 10/26
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MBY 1135' - 10/30
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Average High: 69.6F
Average Low: 48.3F
Precipitation: 2.8" (Not bad for October)

KPDK
Average High: 71.1F
Average Low: 44.5F
Precipitation: 2.01"

KATL

Average High: 73.8F
Average Low: 50.8F ?
Precipitation: 1.89"
 
@J.C. Since you’re a fellow tree nerd, I just found this big Sugar Maple on an island in our big creek. I’ve now found 4 species that we sit on the fringe of. Sugar maple, pin oak, Osage orange, and honey locust.
 

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EmersonGA said:
@J.C. Since you’re a fellow tree nerd, I just found this big Sugar Maple on an island in our big creek. I’ve now found 4 species that we sit on the fringe of. Sugar maple, pin oak, Osage orange, and honey locust.
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I would almost say that is a Southern Sugar, but it looks to be to big to even make that assumption. They look almost identical except the southern has slightly smaller leaves, and is mostly understory. Looks like you may have found one of the ones that are in our area. They definitely reproduce here because there are several renegades around.

Range of "Southern Sugar"

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Range of Sugar Maple

Little definitely spotted the original in your area.

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J.C. said:
I would almost say that is a Southern Sugar, but it looks to be to big to even make that assumption. They look almost identical except the southern has slightly smaller leaves, and is mostly understory. Looks like you may have found one of the ones that are in our area. They definitely reproduce here because there are several renegades around.

Range of "Southern Sugar"

acba150646.jpg


View attachment 123347
Range of Sugar Maple

Little definitely spotted the original in your area.

Acer_saccharum_1-jgreenlee_%285098070608%29.jpg


View attachment 123349
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The creek is too deep for me to get to it but the leaves are pretty large so I think it is a northern. We had some Southern’s where I grew up in Cherokee county and the leaves are a lot smaller than these. Might need to tap it if I can figure out how to bridge the creek well enough for the floods.
 
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