Pattern October '22

[Rain Cold]

Beautiful day up on the parkway View attachment 123205

Agreed!

 

[J.C.]

It really is remarkable how little fall color there is in our area with the cooler temps since late September. Just goes to show you it has just as much to do with latitude as temps. We are going to peak in early November like we always do.

 

[Tarheel1]

Out in the big metropolis of Bellvue, Iowa

 

[FallsLake]

The latest American and Euro runs continue to show a wet Halloween. Still lots of time for this to change, but it's a little discouraging both are showing it.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Out in the big metropolis of Bellvue, IowaView attachment 123208View attachment 123209View attachment 123210

Good bbq place in Bellevue called Flatted Fifth Blues & BBQ. You should try it.

 

[EmersonGA]

It really is remarkable how little fall color there is in our area with the cooler temps since late September. Just goes to show you it has just as much to do with latitude as temps. We are going to peak in early November like we always do.

Just drive a bit north. It gets beautiful quick. This is from a week ago. A lot have already dropped.

 

[Tarheel1]

Good bbq place in Bellevue called Flatted Fifth Blues & BBQ. You should try it.

Don’t k ow that one. Ate at a restaurant called Offshore, it was good

 

[J.C.]

Just drive a bit north. It gets beautiful quick. This is from a week ago. A lot have already dropped.

Is that a pignut hickory? My hickories are still green.

 

[EmersonGA]

Is that a pignut hickory? My hickories are still green.

Shag bark. Our water oaks are still holding onto green but I’ve noticed spots appearing the past couple days.

 

[Bham 99]

It really is remarkable how little fall color there is in our area with the cooler temps since late September. Just goes to show you it has just as much to do with latitude as temps. We are going to peak in early November like we always do.

I was noticing here in Birmingham that there hasn't been much change in the past two or three weeks like there was the first few weeks in regards the leaf colors.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

️ A little brisk up here this morning

 

[Shaggy]

Anyone wanna guess where the trampoline was during the heavy frost the other morning?

 

[BufordWX]

Another good chance at decent rainfall tomorrow. Oklahoma is still one of the most drought stricken areas in the country, so this is much needed. Looks even better than last weekends rainfall.

 

[Brent]

Another good chance at decent rainfall tomorrow. Oklahoma is still one of the most drought stricken areas in the country, so this is much needed. Looks even better than last weekends rainfall.View attachment 123220View attachment 123221

Man i sure hope so. The river is looking sad

Last weekend was too isolated here

 

[Shaggy]

The gfs modeled hurricane is getting close to setting up a tap into the Caribbean off the east coast. A slower front and more west track would lead to a possible heavy rain event along the coast

 

[Rain Cold]

What a Fall front this would be.



Leads to this.



?

 

[whatalife]

What a Fall front this would be.

View attachment 123223

Leads to this.

View attachment 123224

?

Might want to save a little of this for late December into mid January. And yes this would be nice to start November off with.

 

[BullCityWx]

It was awful nice of the 6z GFS to give me a birthday present that run

 

[iGRXY]

I'll say that the next 10 day are going to be a lot of 70's and upper 40's and low 50's days which will be nice. But the GFS is really loading the cold around the day 10 timeframe. That's a serious front and it just keeps reloading with lobes of cold air heading directly over the southeast. the end of the run looked to be heading with to another pumping of the +PNA and getting another batch of fresh cold air heading that way. Highs are like 40's/low 50's and lows in the 20's and low 30's day 10-the end of the run with more coming.

 

[BufordWX]

Here comes the rain!

 

[severestorm]

Hoping for drought reversal in the plains. Mississippi is drying up, impacting supply chain. CFS points to a continuation until next year.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS already playing games .. we will probably be 70 degrees here when the time comes but at least we know the gfs is beginning it’s games early

 

[JHS]

12z GFS is warmer. Hope it's right.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

12z GFS is warmer. Hope it's right.

The ridge was relentless in that run. The mid south got cold in that run but it didn’t quite make the SE


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[Brent]

Here comes the rain!View attachment 123229

Man that was something here. It poured right at lunchtime and then the temps dropped nearly 20 degrees... time to find my hoodie ?

 

[BufordWX]

Ended up with a brief spin up from the line this morning about 10 miles southwest of OKC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Next couple of weeks still look dominated by a deep -PNA/Aleutian ridge due to poor trop forcing. Continued AN temps (some cool days perhaps from wedging) seem to be the continued theme. EPS has a deep -PNA the entire run. Imo the evolution seems to remind me of last December where we’re gonna be stuck in a 2-3 week long stretch of -PNA. I do think mid-late november the higher latitudes respond or we see signs that the favorable sub seasonal pattern (high latitude blocking) might become prevalent. pacific is in question but +AAM events love to eventually (it’s a timely process not a overnight one) extend the pacific jet down the stretch (it is after all a more nino type of atmospheric forcing). Possibly might see some sort of switch as the upper SE (NC/VA/TN esp) starts to enter the very first window of climo for wintry wx. But for now, we warm folks

 

[Tarheel1]

Lunch needed!

 

[jackendrickwx]

Bit foggy. 53

 

[NoSnowATL]

Dipped to 64.

 

[EmersonGA]

Dipped to 64.

You gonna make it?

 

[NoSnowATL]

You gonna make it?

50/50

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That Aleutian ridge is dreadful, well for cold lovers anyways (;

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

That Aleutian ridge is dreadful, well for cold lovers anyways (;View attachment 123263View attachment 123264

It can be like that all it wants in October and November!


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[Tarheel1]

That Aleutian ridge is dreadful, well for cold lovers anyways (;View attachment 123263View attachment 123264

Looks like a great pattern!

 

[LukeBarrette]

It can be like that all it wants in October and November!


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Good to get out of the way now, I will happily accept the golf weather for a couple more months

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks like a great pattern!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 123268

Frozen mix with a high of 54 and low of 43, it’s time to ditch this app ??

 

[Tarheel1]

That Aleutian ridge is dreadful, well for cold lovers anyways (;View attachment 123263View attachment 123264

I need that Anthony Anderson meme, where he’s in the yellow suit licking his lips and rubbing his hands!
Currently 43

 

[Itryatgolf]

That Aleutian ridge is dreadful, well for cold lovers anyways (;View attachment 123263View attachment 123264

Fro, I have a question. Why are we switching to the +AAM state moving forward for a while? What is the catalyst causing that? Not sure if that's good for cold weather chances moving forward. El Nino atmosphere in la niña. You are the man with knowledge ?