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Pattern Novemburrr

Why do the models flip flop so much. You would think in 2021 these things would be more accurate.
Mainly because the votality of the upcoming pattern and honestly the GFS has a track record of not being very consistent lol.

If the GFS continues to show the 18z look or if the Euro caves then I would worry.


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Finally had some time this weekend to knock another winter off my plate, 1956-57 which was a 3rd year -ENSO w/ a meager ~0.8" snow statewide avg (near record-low). The only accumulating snow that occurred east of the mountains was in the northern coastal plain & far northern piedmont near the VA border. The highlight of the winter was this modest ice storm in mid-January, in an otherwise crappy winter.

View attachment 95019

Here's a seasonal map of that winter. @metwannabe hogged all the snow
Winter of 1956-57 NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Why do the models flip flop so much. You would think in 2021 these things would be more accurate.
Euro hasn’t flipped at all really it’s stayed firm and continued to hammer in this early season winter shot with continued fun winter cold … the Gfs is the only one that flips so wildly .. I never would put much stock into anything it says .. plus it’s progressive bias usually bites it in the butt closer towards verification … only time frame I put the stock into the Gfs is if it’s under 180 … anything else is mumbo jumbo
 
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