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Pattern Novemburrr

Stephenb888 said:
Why do the models flip flop so much. You would think in 2021 these things would be more accurate.
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Mainly because the votality of the upcoming pattern and honestly the GFS has a track record of not being very consistent lol.

If the GFS continues to show the 18z look or if the Euro caves then I would worry.


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Webberweather53 said:
Finally had some time this weekend to knock another winter off my plate, 1956-57 which was a 3rd year -ENSO w/ a meager ~0.8" snow statewide avg (near record-low). The only accumulating snow that occurred east of the mountains was in the northern coastal plain & far northern piedmont near the VA border. The highlight of the winter was this modest ice storm in mid-January, in an otherwise crappy winter.

View attachment 95019
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Here's a seasonal map of that winter. @metwannabe hogged all the snow
Winter of 1956-57 NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Stephenb888 said:
Why do the models flip flop so much. You would think in 2021 these things would be more accurate.
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Euro hasn’t flipped at all really it’s stayed firm and continued to hammer in this early season winter shot with continued fun winter cold … the Gfs is the only one that flips so wildly .. I never would put much stock into anything it says .. plus it’s progressive bias usually bites it in the butt closer towards verification … only time frame I put the stock into the Gfs is if it’s under 180 … anything else is mumbo jumbo
 
Bham 99 said:
Seems like I remember being in Charlotte and I was jealous because it was snowing in Raleigh at some point last year...
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Raleigh had an inch or 2 from a system in January. If memory is correct it was a system that was going to be a Mid-Atlantic storm but trended way south in the last 72 hours.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
When was the last time we never saw any snow or ice in a winter season? Let’s use Raleigh for the location?
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I don’t know about Raleigh, but I can say that for Charlotte since records started being kept in 1886, there has never been a winter in which there was not at least a trace of snow recorded. Only 8 times has Charlotte gone without receiving measurable snow.
 
Bham 99 said:
I just realized I misread your question. I thought you were asking when the last time we saw snow in Raleigh. My bad.
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All good I was a bit confused by your response haha but yeah I figured Webb would have some sort of knowledge towards the question since he’s always looking at our winter seasons
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
All good I was a bit confused by your response haha but yeah I figured Webb would have some sort of knowledge towards the question since he’s always looking at our winter seasons
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I do not know of a single winter on record where at least a trace of snow or ice didn't fall in Raleigh. Parts of the far western piedmont near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and places west of Charlotte have been blanked before however.

*knock on wood before 2021-22 tries to be the first*
 
Webberweather53 said:
I do not know of a single winter on record where at least a trace of snow or ice didn't fall in Raleigh. Parts of the far western piedmont near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and places west of Charlotte have been blanked before however.

*knock on wood before 2021-22 tries to be the first*
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This is what should at least put some ease in winter lovers minds .. we will at least have something to track at some point .. I want to be tracking -NAO blocks
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is what should at least put some ease in winter lovers minds .. we will at least have something to track at some point .. I want to be tracking -NAO blocks
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I'm rooting for a -EPO coupled w/ -NAO so both me & you can score a snowstorm. -NAO alone will likely leave me high & dry w/ a ridge over the west. Oth, if the -EPO also shows up, I'll have some cut-offs to work with and cold air east of the Rockies that can backdoor through the mountains from the south-southeast. Yes, that's right... cold fronts around here come from the S-SE; it's bizarre.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like you received accumulating snow on Jan 27-28

View attachment 95095
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We had a white rain event. Nothing to show for it on car tops or anything. When I say white rain I mean a few flakes in with the heavier rain. No accums or evidence of any. For anyone in my area to call that snow is laughable. I recall telling my wife and kids I saw a few flakes mixed in as we were driving and they made fun of me. I look harder for it than anyone.
 
Avalanche said:
We had a white rain event. Nothing to show for it on car tops or anything. When I say white rain I mean a few flakes in with the heavier rain. No accums or evidence of any. For anyone in my area to call that snow is laughable. I recall telling my wife and kids I saw a few flakes mixed in as we were driving and they made fun of me. I look harder for it than anyone.
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You had snow that day.
 
Wow just incredible stuff from the models tonight truly anomalous cold air DIVING down like a dagger .. it’s like a black hole of cold just opens up over us and then a massive -NAO block in its wake … say hello to our friend the CMC 00z where highs don’t get past 35 and lows drop down to the low 20s and teens .. in late November … SHEESH ALEET (ps this is under 180 hours out this ain’t no fantasy cold air) BE1E0880-2E83-4D92-8491-C651A307C118.jpeg4C0E4B75-6381-4B2E-9891-D84F83D0FCD2.jpeg3FA3E35C-820D-482D-B2B8-F20C203D5F5A.jpeg74C4064E-1329-4812-BD60-6E17B66CD9BF.jpeg
 
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