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Pattern Novemburrr

The CFS is gonna be 2 for 2: Called the Oct 20 timeframe well in advance, And appears to have this 2cnd half November Cold pegged as advertised.

Seeing the same drumbeat for December. It has alot of blocking so really getting some nice looking frames. Big thing is it's showing them continously EAST Coast Troughing. We will see how she continues to roll over the next couple of weeks. This is way out there ( first half of December) but since its been suprisingly correct so far, I'll keep giving it the benefit of the doubt, until it wets the bed. Heres some eye candy . Looking for signals.

1636980068299.png
 
NCSNOW said:
The CFS is gonna be 2 for 2: Called the Oct 20 timeframe well in advance, And appears to have this 2cnd half November Cold pegged as advertised.

Seeing the same drumbeat for December. It has alot of blocking so really getting some nice looking frames. Big thing is it's showing them continously EAST Coast Troughing. We will see how she continues to roll over the next couple of weeks. This is way out there ( first half of December) but since its been suprisingly correct so far, I'll keep giving it the benefit of the doubt, until it wets the bed. Heres some eye candy . Looking for signals.

View attachment 95008
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Rate driven here
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Biggest temp spreads Since last February View attachment 95006
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Probably going to need to develop a full on -nao block or do something in the pac to draw the trough out of AK (either west to pump the pna,nor east to bring in the core of the cold) or our region gets into slightly BN pattern with the core of the cold centered to our north
 
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Shaggy said:
My nerdiness hit a weekly high this morning. Had an amazing temp inversion set up with coldest air settling in the very bottom of the ditch causing frost only at the bottom.View attachment 95009
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Pretty similar here my yard frost... neighbors up the hill didn't have any. As you went down the hill closer to the pond the roofs got more and more frosty
 
SD said:
Pretty similar here my yard frost... neighbors up the hill didn't have any. As you went down the hill closer to the pond the roofs got more and more frosty
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It's like a reverse snow line in the mountains. I showed the pic to my wife and she just eye rolled me and said "the neighbors are watching you being a nerd"
 
SD said:
Watch the strat evolution over the next 2 don't want to start stacking into AK unless you want warmth
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I don’t want any sort of trough/TPV around AK in anyway to linger if it stays then we would have to totally rely on the Atlantic or retrogression, because when it gets stuck there, it’s hard to move
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wow View attachment 95012View attachment 95013
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You really need a connection between the ridge axis just off the coast and the block north of AK, for best results. Too much spacing between will get you a cool Canda and a glancing blow modified cool airmass across the US...or at worst, a warmer regime.

You often see the top of a big, tall ridge roll over and break off way up there and allow Pacific air into the US. Not ideal.
 
Rain Cold said:
You really need a connection between the ridge axis just off the coast and the block north of AK, for best results. Too much spacing between will get you a cool Canda and a glancing blow modified cool airmass across the US...or at worst, a warmer regime.

You often see the top of a big, tall ridge roll over and break off way up there and allow Pacific air into the US. Not ideal.
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Aka 2011-12 redux. #cinnamontoastisback.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Wasn’t he literally hyping a PV split and super cold East pattern, like 2 weeks ago?? When he can’t put a cold spin on things, 1st half of winter is toast! And toasty!
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Looks like we’re getting our cold now in November .. most of December probably relatively warm as we should all expect .. hope to see more disruptions sometime in December to help our best climo snow chances
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Looks like we’re getting our cold now in November .. most of December probably relatively warm as we should all expect .. hope to see more disruptions sometime in December to help our best climo snow chances
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Would much rather have a warmer November/colder December seems like we waste a decent pattern in fall nowadays, hard to get snow outside the mountains in November, and late jan/feb is when the SER becomes a legitimate long term risk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Would much rather have a warmer November/colder December seems like we waste a decent pattern in fall nowadays, hard to get snow outside the mountains in November, and late jan/feb is when the SER becomes a legitimate long term risk
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Eh we can’t win them all ..we take what we can get. Plus this pattern coming up looks fairly exciting the question is can we get enough cold air and there’s some impressive anomalies on the euro and even GEFS I wouldn’t get too worked up over it we can get plenty of cold air in late November
 
That's 2 7 day timeouts this morning.

Quick reminder we do have a whamby thread where it's very easy to quote post what you believe will be the next hot 1 liner. It's also very easy to post model runs in this monthly discussion thread and say something like x model run warmed/cooled/more snow/less snow than the last without "oof", "crickets", or whatever troll line you choose.
 
Finally had some time this weekend to knock another winter off my plate, 1956-57 which was a 3rd year -ENSO w/ a meager ~0.8" snow statewide avg (near record-low). The only accumulating snow that occurred east of the mountains was in the northern coastal plain & far northern piedmont near the VA border. The highlight of the winter was this modest ice storm in mid-January, in an otherwise crappy winter.

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