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Pattern November Nuances

Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, I don't know why a couple of folks are always negative. Things look to be progressing nicely into a favorable pattern for winter storms here going into December. I guess that is just their m.o.
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For as many glass half full people, there’s equal amounts of glass half empty people. Remember packbacker from AmWx? He was probably the most negative person I’ve ever met. He’s probably preparing for the apocalypse right now.


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Jon said:
For as many glass half full people, there’s equal amounts of glass half empty people. Remember packbacker from AmWx? He was probably the most negative person I’ve ever met. He’s probably preparing for the apocalypse right now.


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Ain't that the truth!
 
Jon said:
For as many glass half full people, there’s equal amounts of glass half empty people. Remember packbacker from AmWx? He was probably the most negative person I’ve ever met. He’s probably preparing for the apocalypse right now.


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:rolleyes:
Here's a glass, gladly half-full ... :cool:

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
CPC 8-14 day analogs in full color
59d2c7db4c343a8b5b9d27b36cec9e72.gif



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The dry wedge setting up Friday, looks like fun. Highs in the 40s down to ATL
 
cd2play said:
Some are probably trolling, but I think some are just perpetually down, that' just the way they live.
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Yeah anyone who complains after the start to winter we’ve had or should I saw fall will complain no matter what. I’ve pretty much been below normal on temps since mid October and now normal feels kind of hot. I’ve seen my first snow as have others on the board and I’ve seen more fantasy snows at this point then I did through December of last year. Regardless of how good the setup looks I do not realistically expect to see accumulating snows until January. If I do I will consider it a bonus but I definitely won’t get flustered by any long term forecasts that don’t look perfect.
 
One of (if not THE) main reasons I think there's been such s sharp NW to SE gradient in the SE US from very cold NW (like in Memphis) to warm FL is the still very warm SW Atlantic and Gulf SST/OHC (which resulted in an historic very late cat 4 Michael hit on FL). That battleground is probably serving to up the storminess/precip. in the SE US. I assume that the cold will eventually win this winter and gradually push the warm SW Atlantic/Gulf SST anomalies further offshore. Actually, per this 4 week chart, you can see this gradually already occurring:

Very warm SW Atlantic Gulf SSTs:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/atlsst.html

Another thing I've noted is that high temperature anomalies have been much colder than low temp anomalies in most of the US in recent weeks.
 
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olhausen said:
Yeah anyone who complains after the start to winter we’ve had or should I saw fall will complain no matter what. I’ve pretty much been below normal on temps since mid October and now normal feels kind of hot. I’ve seen my first snow as have others on the board and I’ve seen more fantasy snows at this point then I did through December of last year. Regardless of how good the setup looks I do not realistically expect to see accumulating snows until January. If I do I will consider it a bonus but I definitely won’t get flustered by any long term forecasts that don’t look perfect.
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IKR. Many of our best winters actually had a warm December
 
Looks like a little bit of coastal winter at hour 312. Move that low Northwest and it's Winter for a lot of folks. :weenie:
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS was one of the "wackiest, wildest, most incredible" runs in history. (Yes, i'm borrowing from John Sterling but I have no better way to describe it.) The blocking must be off the charts!
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The strong -NAO mid run is the initiator, and then we get this which seems off to me.
gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Using the other anomaly map makes it more obvious.
gfs_z500aNorm_namer_47.png

That is some massive cold air though.
gfs_T850_namer_47.png
 
Would be cool if we had a storm first week of December, almost same time as last year storm December 7/8.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The strong -NAO mid run is the initiator, and then we get this which seems off to me.
gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Using the other anomaly map makes it more obvious.
gfs_z500aNorm_namer_47.png

That is some massive cold air though.
gfs_T850_namer_47.png
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You’re gonna lose resolution the further out in the run you go


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Storm5 said:
You’re gonna lose resolution the further out in the run you go


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Yeah, you can't tell anything long range from individual model runs of any model IMO. However when you start seeing the ensembles hit, perhaps there's something to watch. This is the first GEFS run I've seen with a touch of snow in MBY. Is the first warning shot? Or just another clown map? Once it consistently gets up to 2 inches on the ens runs, then I start to pay attention. Until then, it's just a blip of crazy individual member runs.upload_2018-11-19_17-12-59.png n
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, you can't tell anything long range from individual model runs of any model IMO. However when you start seeing the ensembles hit, perhaps there's something to watch. This is the first GEFS run I've seen with a touch of snow in MBY. Is the first warning shot? Or just another clown map? Once it consistently gets up to 2 inches on the ens runs, then I start to pay attention. Until then, it's just a blip of crazy individual member runs.View attachment 7510 n
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We hug anything that blanks RDU and gives MBY snow :)
 
Haas anyone noticed that the average anomaly for US highs has been much colder than that for the lows, especially in recent weeks? Is that related to global warming and the very warm oceans? I know the SW Atlantic just off the SE US remains quite warm anomalywise though it is starting to cool some
 
GaWx said:
Haas anyone noticed that the average anomaly for US highs has been much colder than that for the lows, especially in recent weeks? Is that related to global warming and the very warm oceans? I know the SW Atlantic just off the SE US remains quite warm anomalywise though it is starting to cool some
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Maybe higher humidity values making it harder to cool off?
 
In any event, when (note: not "if") temp blues begin to look like these probability blues, will someone be so kind as to send an emergency PM to Gainesville ... :cool:


610temp.new.gif
 
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