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Pattern November Nuances

Not bad for the deep coastal SE in late November ... We'll see but it surely is a nice start ...

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You know what? Wake me in a few days when this doesnt happen. Its like a ping pong game.
 

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It was a nice 26 degrees in minor hill, tenn on our weekend home. It felt good out here with no wind.
 
All I see in the long range this morning is the NS messing up our STJ. Pretty typical stuff. Give me a long tracking uninterrupted wave from west to east tracking over Baja California and I won’t ----- and complain near as much
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
All I see in the long range this morning is the NS messing up our STJ. Pretty typical stuff. Give me a long tracking uninterrupted wave from west to east tracking over Baja California and I won’t ----- and complain near as much
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Yes you will . BTW what do you think we’ve had over the last few months with the active southern stream? It’s been wave after wave making its way from west to east over the southern tier


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Meh, I’ve grown to love the storms that form by diving over the tall western ridge, down through the Rockies, then spinning up something along the gulf. We should remember, the active STJ , won’t allow the arctic air to get way far south! There will be a ton of 35-40 degree rain events this winter. We may luck up with 1-2 snowstorms, IMO
 
Tarheel1 said:
Meh, I’ve grown to love the storms that form by diving over the tall western ridge, down through the Rockies, then spinning up something along the gulf. We should remember, the active STJ , won’t allow the arctic air to get way far south! There will be a ton of 35-40 degree rain events this winter. We may luck up with 1-2 snowstorms, IMO
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You will find a way to complain either way. So we have that to look forward to. But but but my local forecaster, but but the TWC.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Meh, I’ve grown to love the storms that form by diving over the tall western ridge, down through the Rockies, then spinning up something along the gulf. We should remember, the active STJ , won’t allow the arctic air to get way far south! There will be a ton of 35-40 degree rain events this winter. We may luck up with 1-2 snowstorms, IMO
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Well we’ve already had 2-3 sub 40 degree rain events and it isn’t even thanksgiving. Maybe we can at least break some records this winter in that regard. Eventually that STj will come in handy when a wave meets some cold air over here on the east side
 
Tarheel1 said:
Meh, I’ve grown to love the storms that form by diving over the tall western ridge, down through the Rockies, then spinning up something along the gulf. We should remember, the active STJ , won’t allow the arctic air to get way far south! There will be a ton of 35-40 degree rain events this winter. We may luck up with 1-2 snowstorms, IMO
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No way on that for me. I hate hearing the same thing every time we track a storm "We need it to dig". Dig dig dig. It usually never digs south and west enough with the big ridge to get south of us without getting shredded to pieces and suppressed, especially with no blocking. And 9 times out of 10 the northern stream dominant stuff is dry. With the STJ we usually don't have to worry about that, it's just a matter of the cold air mixing in. Give me a STJ storm to my south with some blocking and we're gold this winter. The cold will eventually mix in. It's really hard to get the northern stream to our south.
 
JUST because one or two model runs show a whole different setup for instance going from 18z to 6z Gfs was much different in the South from a cold 18z to a warm 6z for same timeframe. That’s don’t mean anything is over The models are having a hard time getting in control with unusual weather setup early In the season. Stop with all the Negative! The upcoming weather pattern suggest a very exciting winter. Also Models are use as a guide not a forecast.
 
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Tarheel1 said:
Meh, I’ve grown to love the storms that form by diving over the tall western ridge, down through the Rockies, then spinning up something along the gulf. We should remember, the active STJ , won’t allow the arctic air to get way far south! There will be a ton of 35-40 degree rain events this winter. We may luck up with 1-2 snowstorms, IMO
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This post makes no sense. Arctic air can't get that far south? Lol.
 
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Meteorologist1999 said:
JUST because one or two model runs show a whole different setup for instance going from 18z to 6z Gfs was much different in the South from a cold 18z to a warm 6z for same timeframe. That’s don’t mean anything is over The models are having a hard time getting in control with unusual weather setup early In the season. Stop with all the Negative! The upcoming weather pattern suggest a very exciting winter. Also Models are use as a guide not a forecast.
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Exactly. The gif I posted shows how much things change run to run and that is just over a week away. Trying to figure out this pattern, much less track a storm five days is impossible right now.
 
So far this month I'm averaging 57.7F and 41.7F, and three nights at or below freezing. This is like an average January in Columbia with slightly warmer lows. :D
 
OhhWeee! This here is some real CAD! Cold air just blasting in on stiff winds. The strongest I've felt in a good while. I hope Miss Winter holds off on some of this until Jan and Feb. Strong cads, strong Ulls, super late fall colors, crazed spiders, animal planet snake adventures, jet engine yellow jacket nests...I'm looking forward to this winter proving to be out of the ordinary. Working outside today will be a challenge requiring gloves and my good wool stocking cap.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
lol no i'm not up here permanently.... I have been up here about 10 months but this will be my last winter here. Honestly I think I would prefer a southern winter. It snows so much here that it's just not as fun as it is down south. BUT i wouldn't like to live in GA again where it can go years without snowing. Somewhere along the I-40 corridor I think would be a good place to live. Anywhere from Oklahoma to North Carolina. You are guaranteed snow every winter but you get breaks and warmups.
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Grass is always greener, huh....well, the south will get a doozy of a winter some year, harkening back to the late 1800's, just have to hope we stay alive long enough to see it, lol. They say we are only a 1000 years off from another ice age, so it's close, lol.
 
33 degrees and rain

My current seasonal cold rain to snow ratio is 5:0

Not a good statistic
 
Freezing rain and sleet in Spartanburg

Chris Justice looks nervous. Most of the viewing area is a degree or two away from some travel issues. ZR and IP starting to creep down into the northern tier of that upstate CAD region. It shouldn’t make it much further south. Interesting nonetheless
 
Looks like ZR/IP at Greenville Spartanburg Airport now also. Hmm. It will be a different story once the heavier bands move in. Should quickly get back up into the mid 30’s
 
Per WYFF radar I’ve got some pink radar pixels about 2 miles from my house :weenie: #Winning
 
Forecast were complete busts for temps tonight. The wedge is obviously way stronger with winds out of the ENE at 20mph. I was forecasted a low of 41 originally, and am currently sitting at 37F. Looks like areas up 85 are borderline freezing.
 
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Its a thing of beauty, and we will probably see this a lot this season.
 
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