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Pattern November Nuances

ForsythSnow said:
This is much better. But is it really possible? Trends have been south with the low and a much flatter tilt, making cold chasing moisture less likely and a swath of snow possible.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png
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If this was January, this would been a board wide winterstorm.
 
Snowfan said:
If this was January, this would been a board wide winterstorm.
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Definitely. However, if we look at the circumstances, the cold blast is unusual for the year. If the initial blast could be colder, it would be more likely to be a nice storm. We aren't looking at that though. What we want is a system that is flatter to produce a southern slider situation. MS, AL, and W TN look to be the best for seeing flakes because that's all this could produce realistically. Maybe some accumulation in there as well, but minimal. If it trends flatter, GA could come into play as well as the mountains and E TN.
 
I was looking at the control and cherry picking EPS members a moment ago and a handful actually try to squeeze out a few flakes on the 11th in the upstate ahead of that system..I just don’t see it
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely. However, if we look at the circumstances, the cold blast is unusual for the year. If the initial blast could be colder, it would be more likely to be a nice storm. We aren't looking at that though. What we want is a system that is flatter to produce a southern slider situation. MS, AL, and W TN look to be the best for seeing flakes because that's all this could produce realistically. Maybe some accumulation in there as well, but minimal. If it trends flatter, GA could come into play as well as the mountains and E TN.
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Still 4/5 days away to go either way, but the trend has been flatter and low placement further south and cold push faster. CMC catching on, icon is trying so this could get interesting very quick.
 
Stormdoc said:
Yeah was wondering what is was spitting out, leaves energy behind with a whopping damming high to the NE
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Yes it does...If that happened it would make things a little more interesting.


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So the GFS, CMC, and ICON have it early while the Euro has it later.
 
Regardless of what happens it’s truly amazing we are tracking a snow threat this early in the season. Especially since we had snow on April 16th up here in the upper south last spring.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah it looks good for AL and a few flurries for GA af best this run. Icy in NC and mentioned. Totally different look than previously and the other models too. Funny how fast the euro dumped a major arctic invasion.
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That’s what we need is to get the arctic front through, then have a wave develop on the tail end! Think the cold Tue/Wed, would be cold enough for wintry for some SE folks
 
Didn't someone say we can start a thread? Lol
 
A062DFE9-BF20-432B-BE4B-16540142BD5A.jpeg What the what!???? Things just got lit and real! I’m all in now! Jimmy, get the beer and bread!!
 
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