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Pattern November Nuances

I remember the snow we had around thanksgiving in 1999. It was weird seeing it stick to the trees that still had leaves.


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BAD84EDB-3FDC-4046-BDFD-AD396A343008.png The AFD looks great and if we repeat the low development along stalled front events to keep occurring, we WILL score, not if , but when!!
 
This Autumn season has striking similarities to fall 1986: Almost relentless summer through September into early October... possible cold spell next week... had simi
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 7229 The AFD looks great and if we repeat the low development along stalled front events to keep occurring, we WILL score, not if , but when!!
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Not to bring politics into this thread, but I vote for pattern repeat
 
Models are showing my location could see a first freeze the morning of 11/14, or next Wednesday. The sooner we can get the freezes the better. There's too many spiders, flies, and mosquitoes right now. And it's exciting to see that some here may see some first flakes soon as well!
 
The GFS just went from a clipper to cold chasing moisture.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
 
probably overdone and this isn't what would actually accumulate, just model output on what falls from the sky. verbatim this run, elevations below 1500-2000 feet are above freezing while snow is falling. Plateau and the Smokies could score though

gfs_asnow_seus_29.png
 
Man the climo record for snowfall this early in the season sure is sparse . Since 1879 there has been a grand total of 1 accumulation prior to the 14th of November at CHA, and that was in 1913 (0.3"). If anything falls at all, it would be the earliest here since 1991 . Anything measurable would be earliest since 1913, and IF 0.4" accumulated it would be the new record for heaviest prior to the 14th.
Further up I-75 in Knoxville, the most recent early November snow was 0.9" on the 10th in 1996 . If 1" accumulated, it would be the earliest pre-14th snowfall since 1904, and 2.1" or more would set the new record for heaviest prior to the 14th.
Nashville's record for early season is hard to break. 7.2" on the 2nd in 1966. 1.3" on the 10th in 1996 is the most recent one.
 
Most of the gefs models have light snow in the deep south by the 13th. Maybe a dusting or little more in central/north Alabama
 
GFS trending to separating the southern energy with the big low in southern Canada. Of course this is a day 6 GFS run.
gfs_z500_vort_us_fh156_trend.gif
 
75202D2C-0468-4BE8-BBDF-E775FF3C962F.png Nothing to see here. Just a 1047 dropping down out of Canada and a 1054 on the other side of the northern hemisphere. Overdone? Yes. Fun to look at? Also yes
 
accu35 said:
Most of the gefs models have light snow in the deep south by the 13th. Maybe a dusting or little more in central/north Alabama
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There's some eps members that show a nice snow as well. The main run puts a nice stripe through here of a dusting while some members have up to half an inch or more. Mountains and further north having an inch or two on one I saw.
 
Not a lot of Nino's have Oct and Nov with +SOI. Oct came in slightly positive and so far Nov has been slightly negative. Models have SOI solidly negative in a week or so.

Screen Shot 2018-11-07 at 10.34.47 AM.png
Screen Shot 2018-11-07 at 10.37.02 AM.png
 
The dry weather will be short-lived with moisture quickly surging
back northward Sunday night as southwest flow aloft returns and a
surface low develops over the Gulf of Mexico. There are model
discrepancies on the placement of the developing surface low as it
moves northeastward with the GFS favoring a more southeasterly track
and the ECMWF a track northwest of the area. Either way, rain
chances will increase markedly into the day Monday. The GFS solution
would provide a slight potential for a brief rain/snow mix in the
higher elevations early Tuesday, but at this point temperatures
appear border line and confidence is low with no significant
impact expected. While the GFS clears the front east of the area
Tuesday night with much colder air surging into the state by
Wednesday morning, the ECMWF is delayed until Wednesday. This
would set the stage for freezing low temperatures across most of
the area midweek, and highs would likely remain in the 40s for
much of north Georgia.
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Here's what the FFC says.
 
accu35 said:
Most of the gefs models have light snow in the deep south by the 13th. Maybe a dusting or little more in central/north Alabama
Click to expand...
Hey I'm a newbie here on this site even though I mostly read what all the members post on here... But if it does snow here in the south this early does that mean we will have a snowy winter this year?
 
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