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Pattern November Nuances

That is a whopper of a winter storm at day 11 on the gfs so close probably a blizzard in some areas

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png
 
gem_asnow_seus_40.png
CMC wants to play
 
brrr at the Euro here, near record lows next Friday/Saturday, Thursday near 80, Friday struggles to get above the lower 40s :eek:

Also a hint of snow not too far away
 
Impressive modeled cold first half of November. EPS agrees too. I know the CFS is a conus blowtorch so maybe the back half of November will be AN. I do expect December to be warm across much of the conus though.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_fh120-384.gif

Goes along with the cold/snowy nino composite of cold focused in central conus.

UNADJUSTEDNONRAW_thumb_3605.jpg
 
Kylo said:
View attachment 7147
Click to expand...

Interestingly I’m teasing the idea of watching the 12-14th period for a possible... possible interesting storm system.

The fv3-GFS Has shown a strong storm signal for this period for 2 days now.

The last two runs have been fairly consistent given the timeframe and are suppressed.

The cold is there. Plenty of it.
C53AF42C-D757-49FA-AC73-8229A73106AF.png

The moisture is there as well.
DD649C0D-E5C3-441C-B55A-86C3BE669226.png
Of course regardless of the month it’ll take a “perfect” setup as always. But interesting signal to say the least.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Interestingly I’m teasing the idea of watching the 12-14th period for a possible... possible interesting storm system.

The fv3-GFS Has shown a strong storm signal for this period for 2 days now.

The last two runs have been fairly consistent given the timeframe and are suppressed.

The cold is there. Plenty of it.
View attachment 7152

The moisture is there as well.
View attachment 7153
Of course regardless of the month it’ll take a “perfect” setup as always. But interesting signal to say the least.
Click to expand...
I agree, fv3 has been strong on this storm signal for a while now, other models has been back n forth as well. Why not get something in that time period? Last year I received my first snow storm in southwest Alabama December 8th. Anyways Roll Tide
 
As crazy as the weather is nowadays, nothing really surprises me. So bring on the November snow !
 
The fall foliage was ideal in Cherokee today. 100% different than when I was there 4 weeks ago. The lights finally flipped
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Interestingly I’m teasing the idea of watching the 12-14th period for a possible... possible interesting storm system.

The fv3-GFS Has shown a strong storm signal for this period for 2 days now.

The last two runs have been fairly consistent given the timeframe and are suppressed.

The cold is there. Plenty of it.
View attachment 7152

The moisture is there as well.
View attachment 7153
Of course regardless of the month it’ll take a “perfect” setup as always. But interesting signal to say the least.
Click to expand...
NW trend or does this scream “suppression”?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
NW trend or does this scream “suppression”?
Click to expand...

There will likely be a NW trend with the miller A style, but with a strong HP to the north oftentimes models have a weak bias in the long range for a CAD so a lot of areas are in the “potential” zone for this one.

That is IF this storm materializes anywhere close to what the fv3 has. It is 10days out.
 
Only bad thing is I know it is not going to stay cold forever. Worried if we get really cold now it will warm up in December and January.
 
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