Latest from SPC:
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
AR TO MIDDLE TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected
this evening and overnight across the ArkLaMiss region and Tennessee
Valley.
...Discussion...
Cluster of tornadic supercells that evolved south of SHV late this
afternoon appears to have been influenced by a weak disturbance that
translated across southeast NM into east TX this evening. Surface
parcels ahead of this feature, south of I-20, were uninhibited
shortly after peak heating and discrete storms were able to evolve
ahead of the primary cold front. This activity has waned a bit in
intensity over the last hour or so but should progress across
northeast LA into western MS later this evening.
Latest thinking is convection should gradually increase in areal
coverage across southeast AR over the next few hours and likely to
evolve into a frontal squall line downstream over portions of the TN
Valley/northern Gulf states. 00z soundings from LZK/ULM exhibit a
slightly stable boundary layer, but strongly sheared and adequately
buoyant for deep convection this evening. Damaging winds should
become more common as the frontal convection matures and bow-type
structures evolve. Otherwise, tornadoes remain possible with
supercell structures, both ahead of the line and within the squall
line.
..Darrow.. 11/06/2018