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Severe November 5th-6th Severe Weather Threat (1 Viewer)

Rick

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Jan 15, 2018
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Toney
#61
Seems like threat is going down I don't believe this is going to be too big of an event like forecasted earlier
 

PEA_RIDGE

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#62
The latest HWO from NWS BMX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-060715-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 4 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW ONE
MILE AT TIMES. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RESTRICTIONS DROP TO NEAR ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY SITUATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THOUGH THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM TUESDAY, THE THREAT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 10 PM
MONDAY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM
TUESDAY
IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO CORDOVA,
WHERE A COUPLE OF LONG-TRACK TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
 

Rick

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Toney
#64
Yep this is a Bust which is good news they really need to quit hyping these events up
 

Arcc

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#67
Seems like threat is going down I don't believe this is going to be too big of an event like forecasted earlier
I wouldnt say the threat is going down. It all depends on how it works out. If the line can surge out ahead in places, that is where it may break apart and become semi-discrete supercells. This setup reminds me of the one thst caused the Centerpoint AL, tornado in 2012. It was mostly a squall line but one storm was able to become a semi-discrete cell and dropped the tornado before going back into a line.
 
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#73
Have there been any severe storms yet? Were there supposed to be some during the day, or is it not supposed to begin until later tonight?
 
Last edited:

Storm5

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#75
Back for the first time since last winter- what do y’all have? Chuck, we gonna get deuced on?
Phil is back in the house ! I think we are good in our area. The best chance for a few supercells seems to be over the extreme nW corner of the state. Will
Most likely be linear by the time it gets to us




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#78
Mesoscale Discussion 1621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...northern Louisiana...eastern Arkansas...northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 052138Z - 052345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage mainly after
23-00Z across northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas, and will gain
strength as they develop eastward into northern Mississippi and
Tennessee during the evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...The air mass across east TX and the lower MS Valley
continues to destabilize via both low-level theta-e advection
associated with a warm front, and mixing of the boundary layer aided
by pockets of heating. As of 21Z, the most unstable air was located
over southeast TX, where 70s F dewpoints and strong heating exist.

18Z soundings indicate a substantial midlevel inversion which is
limiting instability. This inversion will weaken somewhat this
evening as a strong jet max noses into AR, northern MS and western
TN, providing cooling aloft.

Currently, scattered convective showers exist near the instability
axis over east TX and northwest LA, but they are shallow with no
lightning due to the warm midlevel temperatures. However, they are
already rotating. Farther north, a band of ascent was evident on
radar from the ArkLaTex into central AR, with gradually warming
temperatures south of that area.

Over the next several hours, both these areas will likely
consolidate into thunderstorms across northern LA and southern AR,
and may mature into northern MS and western TN this evening. Shear
profiles will continue to increase as the low-level jet intensifies
to over 50 kt. Hodographs will strongly favor supercells,
potentially tornadic, but storms may eventually transition to a
QLCS. Therefore, both damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat is likely to exist east of the MS river and
after 03Z, when lift, shear, and low-level moisture are maximized.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 11/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32719056 32259196 31919297 31779346 31789375 32059397
32339384 34239146 34999072 35349027 35538956 35448887
35128851 34618835 34378839 33368946 3271905
 

StoneMtnWx

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#79
Looks like first confirmed tornado just north Montgomery, Lousiana.
At 414 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Natchitoches,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.
This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Grant...central Natchitoches and southwestern Winn
Parishes, including the following locations... St. Maurice, Natchez
and Clarence.
 

StoneMtnWx

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#81
At 440 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Belmont or 10
miles northeast of Zwolle, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
Locations impacted include...
Belmont and Marthaville.
 

Arcc

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#84
Man those storms in Louisiana spinning like a top to be so far south of the forcing aloft. Interesting to see what that means for areas further north
Hard to tell. While the forcing is lower, the shear vector is nearly due west so the linear forcing is lower thus creating a better setup for discrete convection.

The farther north you go and as time passes the linear forcing will increase.
 

StoneMtnWx

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#86
Latest from SPC:
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
AR TO MIDDLE TN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected
this evening and overnight across the ArkLaMiss region and Tennessee
Valley.

...Discussion...

Cluster of tornadic supercells that evolved south of SHV late this
afternoon appears to have been influenced by a weak disturbance that
translated across southeast NM into east TX this evening. Surface
parcels ahead of this feature, south of I-20, were uninhibited
shortly after peak heating and discrete storms were able to evolve
ahead of the primary cold front. This activity has waned a bit in
intensity over the last hour or so but should progress across
northeast LA into western MS later this evening.

Latest thinking is convection should gradually increase in areal
coverage across southeast AR over the next few hours and likely to
evolve into a frontal squall line downstream over portions of the TN
Valley/northern Gulf states. 00z soundings from LZK/ULM exhibit a
slightly stable boundary layer, but strongly sheared and adequately
buoyant for deep convection this evening. Damaging winds should
become more common as the frontal convection matures and bow-type
structures evolve. Otherwise, tornadoes remain possible with
supercell structures, both ahead of the line and within the squall
line.

..Darrow.. 11/06/2018
 

Parker

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#87
Latest HRRR seems to keep the line stronger and more organized further south than previous runs. It will be interesting to see when the line decides to weaken.
 

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