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Pattern November 2023

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SD said:
No but it's not entirely unheard of. I think we start getting wetter post 11/10 with the last 8-12 days of the month being really wet
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A lot like 2016, although it took until late November to get the wet pattern going. Once it started raining that fall it did get very wet and stayed wet through most of winter.
 
JHS said:
A lot like 2016, although it took until late November to get the wet pattern going. Once it started raining that fall it did get very wet and stayed wet through most of winter.
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Does look like a wet pattern doesn't start until December which isn't crazy. Long range models still pointing at DJF being above avg.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
I'm fine with not wasting precip now and waiting until December, January and February for the pattern to become wetter.
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Not really wasting it. Outside of our local region that benefitted from ophelia and Idalia is been dry across the region since 8/15. For some folks farther SW in the region they are going to need a big DJF to reverse growing negative anomalies and not start the 2024 growing season still behind
 
SD said:
Not really wasting it. Outside of our local region that benefitted from ophelia and Idalia is been dry across the region since 8/15. For some folks farther SW in the region they are going to need a big DJF to reverse growing negative anomalies and not start the 2024 growing season still behind
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Yeah, I just want snow.
 
JHS said:
A lot like 2016, although it took until late November to get the wet pattern going. Once it started raining that fall it did get very wet and stayed wet through most of winter.
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November 2016 was not during an El Niño though. This was during a neutral ENSO.
 
SD said:
If we block December we could get in on something think ice or frozen to rain is more likely versus a pure snow event. If we don't block which I'm leaning towards it's not going to be great for snow
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As normal, I'm going to start really looking at the models at/after Thanksgiving. Our prime time to be able to get big storms tends to be the first week of December to the first week of March. Of course, the better chances start in early January into late February. But we've had some big winter storms in the first half of December.
 
SD said:
If we block December we could get in on something think ice or frozen to rain is more likely versus a pure snow event. If we don't block which I'm leaning towards it's not going to be great for snow
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We don’t usually see a strong El Niño develop much blocking in December. The one thing I’m finding interesting is that I came across an article last week that I wish I had saved, but it’s indicating that the El Niño may be moving west and is not entirely east based. I’m honestly sure what effect that could have on December. I’m still think that December is going to be above average, but things could start to turn a little quicker than what we saw in 2015-16.
 
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This is not that far from a notable mountain event. Trend it far enough SW and I might be in the game in blacksburg
 
NoSnowATL said:
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That's unusually dry but I'm not surprised or worried, yet. The first week or two in November looks dry for the southeast. This appears to indicate the rains return during the second half of the month, which is fine with me. I'm going to enjoy this gorgeous weather for weeks!
 
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