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Pattern November 2023

J.C. said:
This is why you now being in zone 8A is a joke. I have way to much wind and a small amount of UBI to keep up with your lows.
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I laughed when I saw that. If they are going to make the effort to update it they should do it on a more Micro scale.
 
Mitch West said:
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Are you all seeing this? NWS in Raleigh going crazy low with temperatures tonight across North Carolina...
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They must really be banking on radiational cooling overperforming tonight. In the most updated model runs, the only model that I see being close to these temperatures is the Canadian, and it’s been running a few degrees too cold even for overnight lows. GSP has me with a low of 18 tonight, but every model except the Canadian has me between 22-25… even the short range models
 
Chazwin said:
They must really be banking on radiational cooling overperforming tonight. In the most updated model runs, the only model that I see being close to these temperatures is the Canadian, and it’s been running a few degrees too cold even for overnight lows. GSP has me with a low of 18 tonight, but every model except the Canadian has me between 22-25… even the short range models
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This second push of cold air means business. Temps dropping during the day in Virginia. Its only 13 right now in western HIghland County and all the weather stations along the Blue Ridge are lo to mid 20s.
 
Chazwin said:
They must really be banking on radiational cooling overperforming tonight. In the most updated model runs, the only model that I see being close to these temperatures is the Canadian, and it’s been running a few degrees too cold even for overnight lows. GSP has me with a low of 18 tonight, but every model except the Canadian has me between 22-25… even the short range models
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Yeah, weird to see them so bullish on these lows. They are essentially forecasting a 35-40 degree drop in temps tonight.
 
Three straight days in the 40s, not bad for November.

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LickWx said:
Yeah, weird to see them so bullish on these lows. They are essentially forecasting a 35-40 degree drop in temps tonight.
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and still really only model close to those numbers is the Canadian… GFS, HRRR, and Euro are low to mid 20s and 3kNAM is warmer than that. If it were just the GFS, you could see why not to put much weight on it with how it’s been running a few degrees warm of late, but Hi-Res models are fairly in line with it.
 
FallsLake said:
Current radar echoes look interesting. Moving east/southeast. I don't expect anything to reach the ground, but it'll probably stay overcast through early afternoon over north/central NC.

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Had a dusting this morning in Blacksburg
 
One interesting note… if the forecast low temperatures that are at least several degrees below most guidance pans out, a lot of folks in the NC Piedmont will be having their coldest temperatures of 2023. Most of these areas never fell below the mid to upper 20s last winter after the Christmas Arctic outbreak.
 
Mitch West said:
Tonight, as the surface high slides over us, winds will become calm.
A few high clouds may stream in from the NW but otherwise optimal
radiational cooling should be in place for near-record lows (see
climate section) in the middle teens to lower 20s. We favored the
colder guidance given the anomalously cold airmass. Some outlying
areas could even dip into the lower teens as the NBM shows a 70-
percent probability of less than 10 deg F over portions of Randolph,
Chatham, and Moore counties.

Per the NWS in Raleigh..
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Mitch West said:
View attachment 138207

Are you all seeing this? NWS in Raleigh going crazy low with temperatures tonight across North Carolina...
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Wow, you NC guys have all the fun!
 
Already crossing below 30 degree mark into 20s. Rural low areas will hit teens tonight no doubt
 
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