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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Myfrotho704_ said:
Wonder when we get the shift if we can align to a miller B type of pattern temporarily
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This is some very preliminary data, It has a lower sample size than I would like, and I’ll post a later graphic at some point, but this is the 15 day progression to a Miller B event.
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Ollie Williams said:
This is some very preliminary data, It has a lower sample size than I would like, and I’ll post a later graphic at some point, but this is the 15 day progression to a Miller B event.
View attachment 54660
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This is great, looks like in the composite it's actually pretty warm more often than not leading into a Miller B about 7-10 days out, we get a -EPO to seed a trough in the Canadian Rockies with really cold Siberian/"truly" arctic air, it slides across the northern US about a day or so prior to a southern stream wave coming out of the southern rockies to overrun what cold air is left. I wonder what this looks like once you add in the events after 1978
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is great, looks like in the composite it's actually pretty warm more often than not leading into a Miller B about 7-10 days out, we get a -EPO to seed a trough in the Canadian Rockies with really cold Siberian/"truly" arctic air, it slides across the northern US about a day or so prior to a southern stream wave coming out of the southern rockies to overrun what cold air is left. I wonder what this looks like once you add in the events after 1978
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Yeah, I would assume we see that strong -NAO signal go away. One thing I'm interested in doing is finding the Miller A/B cases w/ a +NAO, and +EPO, etc.
 
For the next system: models already significantly diverge by 72 hours, and the new ECMWF is looks even more strung out than the GFS... fingers crossed this is good down the line. I'm worried that far western piece won't come along for the ride here. The ECMWF also shows the strongest with the trough over SE Canada, which is good.
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RVD said:
For the next system: models already significantly diverge by 72 hours, and the new ECMWF is looks even more strung out than the GFS... fingers crossed this is good down the line. I'm worried that far western piece won't come along for the ride here. The ECMWF also shows the strongest with the trough over SE Canada, which is good.
View attachment 54671
View attachment 54672View attachment 54673
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The Euro loves to drag its feet in the southwestern US, it's actually even more extreme than the GFS camp

These differences are absurd for 96 hr

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Rain Cold said:
Yeah about the same here. They mention the LLJ moving through with a few gusts as high as 45. I'll believe it when I see it. I have yet to record a gust higher than 26 or so on my Tempest. And it's gone through at least 2 wind advisories.
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@Rain Cold I'm within a mile or so of PGV at work and they recorded 44mph at 12:55. Clouds moving back in a touch and its calming down some again.
 
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