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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

As I mentioned last week, now that wave 1 severe has had time to clear, the models are seeing a clearer picture with wave, with snowpack to come over the mtns, wave 2 is trending to an sleety/freezing rain setup over the Virginia/North Carolina (mountains for now). I believe even more changes are possible today/tomorrow!
 
Wow, the 12z GFS was really close to delivering the goods in NC inside day 6
View attachment 54626
It’s more interesting on Friday IMO. Verbatim it’s temps near 39-42 now with bad timing...but it’s the gfs which sucks...even more so with incoming snowpack. There will be pink on it soon for sleet/freezing rain.
 
It’s more interesting on Friday IMO. Verbatim it’s temps near 39-42 now with bad timing...but it’s the gfs which sucks...even more so with incoming snowpack. There will be pink on it soon for sleet/freezing rain.

You also quoted the CMC earlier which sucks even more than the GFS lol
 
GFS is CMC like with Lee side moisture development for South Carolina/North Carolina. Cold, may not go above 40. If we get faster timing and greater snowpack over the mtns, boom it’s first light mixing event of the season for counties in the west on Friday. I would put odds near 40% for mountain counties and 10% for foothill counties.
 
Looking at the reports thus far snow may be a bit more widespread then originally thought. Even flurries being reported in Arkansas and I know they were forecasting a dry day today.View attachment 54629
Interesting there's some near Chattanooga now. Radar returns from Huntsville seem to show something flying up there.
 
I see there may be hope for something on Friday... is that just talk for the mountains again or is upstate Sc in play
For upstate South Carolina its 38-42 rain if the rain speeds up a hair out of north Georgia. For 5 days out, that’s workable for some kind of sleet pellet to work in. ESP after this cold wave with dry air would promote sleet near the surface west and north of GSP. But only the mtns stand a chance of icy accumulations as shown Avery County NC and north.
 
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Absurd differences between the GFS & every other model rn even out to day 5 w/ this upper trough over the mid MS valley, I'm very curious to see which side of the fence the 12z Euro falls on

I noticed that too. CMC/Icon seem to be favoring a rather stout cutoff heading towards the OH Valley whereas the GFS seem to want to bring a ULL through the southern states. Obviously that makes a massive difference in storm track. CMC looks like a redux of this current storm with snow flurries/showers breaking out over Northern AL/GA.
 
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