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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

EPS for Miami. Pretty decent all things considered tbh. After the last three months of endless rain I could really use some 60's and sunshine

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I feel 90% confident of saying light snow event for mountains and 80% confident for the first wind snow event east of the mountains (Asheville, Hickory, Statesville, Yadkinville, Mount Airy). For wave 1.
 
Stephenb888 said:
I am just amazed that the flurries keep getting further into Georgia but refuse to cross the SC line. Just doesn’t make any sense.
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Downsloping! Has the same affect here in the upstate as it does in parts of georgia...orientation of the storm and where we sit on this side of the mountains. Happens alot during summertime storms as well. Keeps alot of severe crap off of us but can also keep snow showers off of us.
site.extension.uga.edu

Downslope winds can affect the weather a long way from the mountains | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast

site.extension.uga.edu site.extension.uga.edu
 
So what would the setup have to be for us to get a decent snow in the upstate? I know someone said the cold has to already be in place but it seems like even when that happens the low brings warm air which usually causes rain right at the I-85 line.
Dewpoint Dan said:
The mountains have gotten taller since you were younger.
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Oconeexman said:
Downsloping! Has the same affect here in the upstate as it does in parts of georgia...orientation of the storm and where we sit on this side of the mountains. Happens alot during summertime storms as well. Keeps alot of severe crap off of us but can also keep snow showers off of us.
site.extension.uga.edu

Downslope winds can affect the weather a long way from the mountains | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast

site.extension.uga.edu site.extension.uga.edu
Click to expand...
Oconeexman said:
Downsloping! Has the same affect here in the upstate as it does in parts of georgia...orientation of the storm and where we sit on this side of the mountains. Happens alot during summertime storms as well. Keeps alot of severe crap off of us but can also keep snow showers off of us.
site.extension.uga.edu

Downslope winds can affect the weather a long way from the mountains | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast

site.extension.uga.edu site.extension.uga.edu
Click to expand...
 
Stephenb888 said:
So what would the setup have to be for us to get a decent snow in the upstate? I know someone said the cold has to already be in place but it seems like even when that happens the low brings warm air which usually causes rain right at the I-85 line.
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The simplest answer to this is that you need the low to track to your southeast, and you need cold air held in place by an arctic high to your north or northwest.
 
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Stephenb888 said:
Which of these is the hardest to get the cold in place or the low tracking just right? Or is it just both happening at the same time?
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Both, most of the time when you have the cold in place, you can have a pretty stout vortex in place with suppressed stuff, but when you have the storm track in place, sometimes it just lacks cold, most of the time for setups East of the mountains, you want a SE Canada vortex that’s moving out slowly, this allows high pressure on the backside which gives us cold air damming, then you need to time a southern wave right, that’s our best setups East of the mountains
 
Sucks that the Vortex in Canada is so weak here, If it was much stronger we’d be talking differently 949B1CC0-9879-419E-AA14-8352B560C6DB.png99C0331A-CD14-472C-913E-7469F5510BF3.png
 
Tuesday night is going to be a race against the clock here. How cold will it get before the winds shift from N to NNE. The forecasting error could be enormous as the model spread is gigantic for only a few days out with various models predicting lows as cold as 42F and as warm as 63F.
 
AJ1013 said:
Tuesday night is going to be a race against the clock here. How cold will it get before the winds shift from N to NNE. The forecasting error could be enormous as the model spread is gigantic for only a few days out with various models predicting lows as cold as 42F and as warm as 63F.
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I doubt you will see snow in Key Biscayne !
 
AJ1013 said:
It's both happening at the same time that is rare.
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Dewpoint Dan said:
I doubt you will see snow in Key Biscayne !
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I will most definitely not see snow in Key Biscayne lol. There was some isolated flurries/sleet in 2010 which I didn't see as I was sleeping. Before that the great Miami blizzard of 1977 brought flurries to most of the metro area.

Honestly I just want 60's and sunshine, it's a realistic wish and would feel amazing after six months of relentless heat and humidity. The past week and a half has been a bit cooler but still crappy with 78/70 basically every day.
 
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