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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

If you’re in the northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, North Georgia, the Upstate, through North Carolina that second wave is right where you want it to be. Developing a true winter storm in Texas and louisiana and getting destroyed down stream. That is perfect right now. The ULL is getting more and more interesting for SC and NC as well. All it takes is 2 or 3 more shifts further south and west and you’re gonna pull more of us in the snow and drive in more cold air. This has honestly been a great day for model trends.
 
iGRXY said:
If you’re in the northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, North Georgia, the Upstate, through North Carolina that second wave is right where you want it to be. Developing a true winter storm in Texas and louisiana and getting destroyed down stream. That is perfect right now. The ULL is getting more and more interesting for SC and NC as well. All it takes is 2 or 3 more shifts further south and west and you’re gonna pull more of us in the snow and drive in more cold air. This has honestly been a great day for model trends.
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Only problem is that there’s many things that can go wrong with this setup and you need it to be exactly perfect, things that can go wrong is 1. that the cold source (which is the UL trough) decays to fast so we lose our cold air source and stuff phases to our west leaving us vulnerable to WAA 2. you could also run into the UL trough being to far south so it squashes stuff 3. It’s not just threading the needle this setup, it’s threading a viral molecule as you have to get the most perfect track possible and cold air in the right spot, this is probably the reason the EPS/GFS hasn’t been so good with wave 2, I guess things could change tho
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Only problem is that there’s many things that can go wrong with this setup and you need it to be exactly perfect, things that can go wrong is 1. that the cold source (which is the UL trough) decays to fast so we lose our cold air source and stuff phases to our west leaving us vulnerable to WAA 2. you could also run into the UL trough being to far south so it squashes stuff 3. It’s not just threading the needle this setup, it’s threading a viral molecule as you have to get the most perfect track possible and cold air in the right spot, this is probably the reason the EPS/GFS hasn’t been so good with wave 2, I guess things could change tho
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This makes a lot of sense. Honestly it looks like that wave 2 could be a feast or famine scenario in that If there is a storm it would have the potential to be a big one, but there are so many pieces that have to come together the odds are it will get squashed.
 
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