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Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

KyloG

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When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.
I think most knew that but as usual someone jumped the gun on starting a thread, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this winter.

I am surprised to seeing sun poking out this morning.
 

Brick Tamland

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I think most knew that but as usual someone jumped the gun on starting a thread, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this winter.

I am surprised to seeing sun poking out this morning.
Yes, because the thread itself is what decided what happens, and it is so critical if there is a thread about something that doesn't pan out.
 

KyloG

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Yes, because the thread itself is what decided what happens, and it is so critical if there is a thread about something that doesn't pan out.
You said it....it is so critical if there is a thread about something that doesn't pan out.
 

Lickwx

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Oh this is hilarious , we weren’t forecast out of the low 40s today and we are about 50 now ! This on top of the NAM ice snow crap lol! New and all to this forum so not that familiar with brick but damn has brick really tainted my faith in his credibility on these matters lol.
 

Downeastnc

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Buoys offshore ramping up gusting into the low 50's it will be interesting if we see then get to the higher modeled wind speeds with lots of models in the 60-80 mph range in gust.....
 

metwannabe

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I always think it's funny how people openly talk about a forum, how its run or what should be done or this and that are silly. Haha don't like the program change the channel or start your own.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Brick Tamland

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Uh, what? Since when does creating a thread determine a storm happening or not?
It doesn't. That's my point. I was being sarcastic.

If y'all want to delete this thread, fine by me. I just don't get why folks get so serious about a thread being started. I just won't start anymore. There are bigger things to worry about.
 

BirdManDoomW

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It doesn't. That's my point. I was being sarcastic.
If y'all want to delete this thread, fine by me. I just don't get why folks get so serious about a thread being started. I just won't start anymore. There are bigger things to worry about.
Why not just rename it to nor’easter with all the flooding and winds down east
 

IWC

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Wow I'm back to winter mode to see Brick being hammered to death for starting a thread. I'm a winter time user of the board and think the relentless hammering is a bit much. I've seen thread that didn't pan out before but to be so mean. WoW
 
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Wow I'm back to winter mode to see Brick being hammered to death for starting a thread. I'm a winter time user of the board and think the relentless hammering is a bit much. I've seen thread that didn't pan out before but to be so mean. WoW
I think it's safe to say Brick won't be allowed to start another thread anytime soon.
 

Rain Cold

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Ok, enough Brick bashing. Didn't we talk about not berating other posters? We better get all these kinks out before legit winter gets here.

I'm going to leave the thread open because there is a coastal low with rain, wind, and flooding. If other staff wants to overrule me, that's fine.

But I think we're going to ask folks from now on that if you start a thread, you should provide some sound meteorological rationale regarding the topic at hand. I can't speak for the rest of the staff, but if I see a thread pop up with some silly clown map or 10 day + cold pattern plot and no solid analysis or good weather discussion, I'm going to delete it.

Lastly, I know that some posters get on each other's nerves. Just avoid talking to them or about them (and that means the passive-aggressive stuff too). Ignore them or scroll past their posts. If you disagree with something and you want to discuss it, that's fine. But let's don't turn these threads or the board into a bash-fest.
 

SD

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Everyone just a couple of housekeeping notes before winter. #1 let's stop the when to start a thread and when not to conversation in this thread. If you want to discuss that take it to whamby. #2 it doesn't matter who starts a thread the results are going to be what they are. #3 adding to that if it fails its not the thread starters fault no need for attacks or comments in that direction. #4 I personally have no issue with starting threads if the threat is legit even if it's for flurries in a few locations, it makes it easier to find at a later date. That being said let's not go crazy and start something any time the models show a little blue over the area. #5 if you start a thread give a decent reason, showing 1 model showing something that isn't realistic will get threads locked in the future. #6 as I said yesterday I do not believe in locking threads unless its necessary, lets keep ourselves mature and professional enough so that we don't have to go that route.

I am more than willing to discuss any of these points in whamby before winter starts but once winter starts we will roll out our guidelines for starting winter threads. In other words if you have an opinion and this matters to you please provide input.

Thanks
 

SD

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Ok, enough Brick bashing. Didn't we talk about not berating other posters? We better get all these kinks out before legit winter gets here.

I'm going to leave the thread open because there is a coastal low with rain, wind, and flooding. If other staff wants to overrule me, that's fine.

But I think we're going to ask folks from now on that if you start a thread, you should provide some sound meteorological rationale regarding the topic at hand. I can't speak for the rest of the staff, but if I see a thread pop up with some silly clown map or 10 day + cold pattern plot and no solid analysis or good weather discussion, I'm going to delete it.

Lastly, I know that some posters get on each other's nerves. Just avoid talking to them or about them (and that means the passive-aggressive stuff too). Ignore them or scroll past their posts. If you disagree with something and you want to discuss it, that's fine. But let's don't turn these threads or the board into a bash-fest.
Dang we were thinking the same thing at the same time
 

Rain Cold

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The more things change the more they stay the same.............

Pushing 35-45 in gust here now, really shaking the house and much more frequent, the low is really starting to crank....

View attachment 26089
What model you you find most accurate when it comes to wind speed progs? And what do you expect to see at your location later?
 

Downeastnc

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What model you you find most accurate when it comes to wind speed progs? And what do you expect to see at your location later?
Usually the GFS is the most "grounded" and typically is closest followed by Euro.....all the models except the GFS had me hitting 50+ and they are barely doing that at the coast at this time so unless it really ramps up 40-45 ought to be the best we see here....things should peak between 9-12 then taper off.....officially at PGV the max is 36 for now....
 

Rain Cold

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Usually the GFS is the most "grounded" and typically is closest followed by Euro.....all the models except the GFS had me hitting 50+ and they are barely doing that at the coast at this time so unless it really ramps up 40-45 ought to be the best we see here....things should peak between 9-12 then taper off.....officially at PGV the max is 36 for now....
Thanks. It's been blustery here, but nothing over 35, in terms of gusts, I'd say.
 
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IMO, the GFS won with this storm. NAM did some wonky stuff with the low a couple of days ago and had it farther north. GFS always kept it further south along the coast. It even got the ULL precip over Alabama and into Southern GA right. Surprised tbh.
 

POWERSTROKE

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Oh, I didn't know we had to be allowed to start a thread. I didn't realize it was such a big deal.

Oh, that's right, it isn't.
Do like me read more and post less. Some have been doing this for years and just times up to many pages. We all get excited over wintry weather. I agree some comments are to harsh for a free forum but also this isn't the first time someone has made a thread with one model run. Never was a threat if it was some met would have picked up on it. Who cares who starts a thread as long as it's a legitimate threat. Please don't turn this forum into the other forum that most came from. As a contractor I appreciate those who know how to read models and study weather. I use those that have knowledgeable quotes to help us with our winter storm preparations.
 
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