It is fast becoming more like the November to remember. Check out how much colder is 11/23-26 on the 0Z GEFS vs prior runs with the help of a strong -NAO! With that, the 0Z GEFS says that other than a near normal day on 11/22, all days through 11/26 would be colder than normal in the SE. Yes, the GEFS typically has a cold bias. However, a cold bias doesn't mean it will always be too cold, especially if the strong -NAO were to verify. And it has done well with NAO predictions recently. Furthermore, the 12Z EPS trended toward a stronger -NAO. Trends, folks, trends.