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Pattern Nippy November

Jon said:
I’m no where close to immediately throwing out the solution, just know which side I’m on as of now.... blocking is tough for any NWP so we will see.

12z does look better but still worlds apart. I prefer this look.
8fcd929ee43c508146d9be169cd6ef67.jpg




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It may be world's apart at 500 mb over Greenland, but the 2 meter temps in the SE are actually similar at 12Z.
 
Jon said:
I’m no where close to immediately throwing out the solution, just know which side I’m on as of now.... blocking is tough for any NWP so we will see.

12z does look better but still worlds apart. I prefer this look.
8fcd929ee43c508146d9be169cd6ef67.jpg




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Click to expand...

Dang, that is not a bad look at all. Definitely better than the GEFS. I love seeing the +PNA knowing the EPS has been trending stronger closer to verification.
 
For a bit of comparison, this is the latest EPS mean, generally has a deeper trough in the east because the WC ridge is stronger due to weaker heights around Siberia.

I do find it ironic that we have been seeing a torch pattern in the LR this season, including the summer. Only for it to verify and have the NAO verify stronger. I feel like every winter season has a "theme" to it as far as the weather model performances. For example, in particular, 2017 was the winter of overperforming storms. Will this be our theme this year?
00z
1574769600-LYVImzMhlZ4.png

12z
1574769600-xfqhyO9P98A.png
 
For posterity I would just like to note that upon arriving back at the hacienda just now, I still have frost heaves in my muddy front yard. Pretty uncommon for this time of year
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
For posterity I would just like to note that upon arriving back at the hacienda just now, I still have frost heaves in my muddy front yard. Pretty uncommon for this time of year
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Better than dry heaves

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GaWx said:
It may be world's apart at 500 mb over Greenland, but the 2 meter temps in the SE are actually similar at 12Z.
Click to expand...

Yeah, still major differences over the Atlantic as well. But if I wanted one to verify I’d roll the dice with the eps pattern heading into December!


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48 for the high today, a new record low high.

My dad said 44 was what the thermometer near the house had during the "heat" of the day though (this thermometer often has warmer lows and lower highs though) and I'll tell you, when I was in the wind and shade it was very believable. But once I got to a sunnier area I was actually okay while outside.
 
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