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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
And the 06z finished up on a cool note, that far out flips every 4 hours.... come on man you know that.
Thanks kylo. That alone is reason for a little optimism
No disrespect intended but 2 weeks out is just way too far to pay attention to specific weather at the surface. Pay attention closely to those post about the GEFS and EPS as it relates to pattern recognition (NAO, PNA, etc the 5H maps they share and discuss). This will give you some insight as to what the pattern may look like that far out, but even that isn't close to set in stone but can show the "potential".
S
snowcool776
Guest
Alrighty then.
whatalife
Moderator
Case in point. Let's look at the 6z GEFS. The 12z isn't out yet on TT, but if we look at the 384 snapshot of the image Kylo posted above (the H5 anomaly plot), we can see what looks like an awesome west-based -NAO block in an ideal spot (circled in red). We also see a split flow pattern out in the Pacific and our old friend, the SW trough. We see an area of lower heights in the SW and off the NE coast, with normal heights over most of the central and eastern US.
But now let's look at the actual H5 height map and see what the structure of the NAO and the overall pattern looks like. You can see the PV way up to the NW of the image, leaving stale cold over most of Canada. In fact, as we will see in a moment, it's actually a little warmer than normal there. Split flow brings in cool air, and the likelihood of storminess across the south will probably contribute to normal temps in that area.
But look in eastern Canada and Greenland. While the heights on the anomaly map are above normal, we see no pattern here that is supportive of buckling the flow (as we want to see with a -NAO), forcing colder temps south. Higher heights in that region may technically allow the calculated value to show up as a -NAO, but the resulting pattern does little to help us in any way, other than maybe to help keep the SE ridge from popping and making us warm:
And lastly, the resulting temp anomaly map speaks for itself:
Looks like normal to above normal temps, which, while certainly better than a torch, is nothing to be overly excited about. The main take-aways that I have that may be worth some excitement down the line is the fact that we are seeing a good southern storm track emerge. There is no talk of any drought. Also, we're seeing more promising signs in the Arctic regions than we did last year. Add in the fact that the models have false-started the torch pattern a couple of times, and I think there's enough reason to deposit some excitement and optimism in the bank so that it can be withdrawn later, when the situation better warrants it.
But now let's look at the actual H5 height map and see what the structure of the NAO and the overall pattern looks like. You can see the PV way up to the NW of the image, leaving stale cold over most of Canada. In fact, as we will see in a moment, it's actually a little warmer than normal there. Split flow brings in cool air, and the likelihood of storminess across the south will probably contribute to normal temps in that area.
But look in eastern Canada and Greenland. While the heights on the anomaly map are above normal, we see no pattern here that is supportive of buckling the flow (as we want to see with a -NAO), forcing colder temps south. Higher heights in that region may technically allow the calculated value to show up as a -NAO, but the resulting pattern does little to help us in any way, other than maybe to help keep the SE ridge from popping and making us warm:
And lastly, the resulting temp anomaly map speaks for itself:
Looks like normal to above normal temps, which, while certainly better than a torch, is nothing to be overly excited about. The main take-aways that I have that may be worth some excitement down the line is the fact that we are seeing a good southern storm track emerge. There is no talk of any drought. Also, we're seeing more promising signs in the Arctic regions than we did last year. Add in the fact that the models have false-started the torch pattern a couple of times, and I think there's enough reason to deposit some excitement and optimism in the bank so that it can be withdrawn later, when the situation better warrants it.
Jon
Member
GEFS and EPS are worlds apart wrt the NAO for day 10-15. Glancing at tele line graphs can only say so much. For some reason I’m not buying the GEFS beating the euro here.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
FWIW Pivotal Weather gets the EPS/GEFS maps an hour or so before TT. The 12z GEFS has been out a while.
Perfect explanation ??
OP Euro back to showing Rex block. It did the same thing with the next two shortwaves on last weeks run.
packfan98
Moderator
If history repeats itself and the ridge builds westward again that cold shot could be another doozy. Euro much more bullish about the -NAO on this run.
The D10 Euro is decent. Not a snowstorm pattern or anything. But if we don't have a mechanism to deliver arctic air over here, then this pattern will work to keep us near or slightly below normal temp-wise. -NAO showing up a bit better than on that other map I posted earlier. You can see the ridging near Greenland helping to amplify the big low over eastern Canada. Does that ridge stay/get stronger/develop into a block and trap the low in place? Or does it move out, allowing the low to move out, turning our flow more west to east, instead of NW to SE? I guess time will tell. Got to love the split flow showing up, though. Hope that remains.
At least we can say NO TORCH!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I definitely wouldn’t immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO
I'm not sure if we should immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO.
Ironically, at this exact same time last year, the EPS completely whiffed on the -NAO that emerged in mid November.
GEFS and EPS are worlds apart wrt the NAO for day 10-15. Glancing at tele line graphs can only say so much. For some reason I’m not buying the GEFS beating the euro here.
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I'm not sure if we should immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO.
Ironically, at this exact same time last year, the EPS completely whiffed on the -NAO that emerged in mid November.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As some of you will probably recall, a few days after the verification of this EPS forecast last year in my tweet, we ended up seeing a big ice storm over the western piedmont.
Ummmm, wait til the 12Z EPS 11-15 is available on public sites. OMG, the Greenland Blocking is stronger and the E US is much colder than what the prior run had. IF it is right, there will hardly be any warmer than normal days the rest of the month and all but maybe 3 would be colder than normal! And keep in mind that the EPS has been warm biased recently.
**Edit: Now we can start thinking about the chance for one of the coldest Novembers on record.
**Edit: Now we can start thinking about the chance for one of the coldest Novembers on record.
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Jon
Member
I’m no where close to immediately throwing out the solution, just know which side I’m on as of now.... blocking is tough for any NWP so we will see.
12z does look better but still worlds apart. I prefer this look.
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