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Pattern Nippy November

GaWx said:
Here's a summary of the 12Z GEFS/EPS and what it portends for the SE US from my perspective:

- Both models much colder in the 1st 5 days of Dec vs the last 5 days of Nov, when they're all (including CMC suite) clearly warmer than normal
- For the 1st 5 days of Dec. averaged out, the GEFS is colder to much colder than normal whereas the EPS is near normal
- Based on a clearly cold biased GEFS in recent weeks and a much closer to reality EPS, which I think has recently had only a small warm bias, my educated guess is that Nov 26-30 will average solidly warmer than normal and that Dec 1-5 will cool off a lot to the near to slightly colder than normal category averaged out, which I'd take in a heartbeat. Betting on the B to MB of the 12Z GEFS would not be a wise bet.
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Just in time for the Christmas season.
 
GaWx said:
Here's a summary of the 12Z GEFS/EPS and what it portends for the SE US from my perspective:

- Both models much colder in the 1st 5 days of Dec vs the last 5 days of Nov, when they're all (including CMC suite) clearly warmer than normal
- For the 1st 5 days of Dec. averaged out, the GEFS is colder to much colder than normal whereas the EPS is near normal
- Based on a clearly cold biased GEFS in recent weeks (largely due to too cold of a pattern) and a much closer to reality EPS, which I think has recently had only a small warm bias, my educated guess is that Nov 26-30 will average solidly warmer than normal and that Dec 1-5 will cool off a lot to the near to slightly colder than normal category averaged out, which I'd take in a heartbeat. Betting on the B to MB of the 12Z GEFS would not be a wise bet.
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GEFS FWIW has a few members with a southern slider
1575720000-Mzl2uatyW4A.png
 
12z EPS looks great for early December. -EPO, -NAO, upper level high breaks down. This is actually good! It's still holding on what I was talking about last night. We may have a shot at a winter event some point in early December.
be4f6de6ef559ca1ed098416d8301eb1.gif
 
Brick Tamland said:
Based on what?
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Decembers have been mostly warm, and we are headed into a pattern that will result in transient warmth, but as soon as that -epo erodes the NAO, it'll open the door to the SER developing. Historically, when the models hint at it's arrival, it'll stick for a week or two. We may have transient cold in there but always bet the SER will overstay it's expected time. Also if you read, the supposed nice setup near the end of December is highly subject to chance and usually we end up being warm right until after Christmas before we chill.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Decembers have been mostly warm, and we are headed into a pattern that will result in transient warmth, but as soon as that -epo erodes the NAO, it'll open the door to the SER developing. Historically, when the models hint at it's arrival, it'll stick for a week or two. We may have transient cold in there but always bet the SER will overstay it's expected time. Also if you read, the supposed nice setup near the end of December is highly subject to chance and usually we end up being warm right until after Christmas before we chill.
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FS, I was about to reply to Brick with one word ... "History" ... but felt uncomfortable replying to a question directed to you. You expanded on the "History" thought very, very well ... ;)
Phil
 
ForsythSnow said:
Decembers have been mostly warm, and we are headed into a pattern that will result in transient warmth, but as soon as that -epo erodes the NAO, it'll open the door to the SER developing. Historically, when the models hint at it's arrival, it'll stick for a week or two. We may have transient cold in there but always bet the SER will overstay it's expected time. Also if you read, the supposed nice setup near the end of December is highly subject to chance and usually we end up being warm right until after Christmas before we chill.
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Okay, but so far the models have only shown the SER showing up for a little while. Right now it has been the opposite of what we're used to, with the SER showing up on the models only to be beaten back. Maybe this December will be different. We'll see.
 
Hello what's the severe threat looking like next week before and after Thanksgiving?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Okay, but so far the models have only shown the SER showing up for a little while. Right now it has been the opposite of what we're used to, with the SER showing up on the models only to be beaten back. Maybe this December will be different. We'll see.
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SER is still there, especially around hour 180-240, more transient but looks like our average H5 pattern this past decade, SE Canada vortex, very negative -PNA, obviously can tell the MJO/convection ain’t helping this pattern out, but hey if that -EPO takes over like this shows more towards the end of the run, buckle up F07B52E1-E1A9-470D-82C4-09596AFC6C0A.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
SER is still there, especially around hour 180-240, more transient but looks like our average H5 pattern this past decade, SE Canada vortex, very negative -PNA, obviously can tell the MJO/convection ain’t helping this pattern out, but hey if that -EPO takes over like this shows more towards the end of the run, buckle up View attachment 26301
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Agreed but I guess my point earlier was, at least right now, the SER doesn't look like it has staying power. It's there, it will be there some and yeah that's a warm look but if it's just a few days and then beat back, I'm good with that. The heat pump needs a break every now and then anyway...
 
KyloG said:
Personally prefer the GEFS as I loathe GOA ridges...EPS has a NAO and GEFS has the -EPO.

View attachment 26298
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I know it's out there and probably doesn't matter but give me the EPS please. The GEFS completely erases the -NAO. I want that to hold firm more or less through the winter to really mix things up. At the end of the run the GEFS starts poking the the SE ridge back up. Everything in the pacific needs to come about 1000 miles east. Pick your poison I guess.

1574371732680.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I know it's out there and probably doesn't matter but give me the EPS please. The GEFS completely erases the -NAO. I want that to hold firm more or less through the winter to really mix things up. At the end of the run the GEFS starts poking the the SE ridge back up. Everything in the pacific needs to come about 1000 miles east. Pick your poison I guess.

View attachment 26303
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The good thing is that we have around 3-5 week to play with and see how things trend. I like how things are progressing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is definitely kinda of like picking your poison or drug, if you choose the gefs with the -EPO, yes, you may get get a better chance of a winter storm while it happens, and lots of cold, but once it breaks down, you get a ugly ugly pattern with a -PNA and a big southeast ridge, like last year, if you chose a -NAO to last, you are more likely gonna see more seasonal conditions with likely no winter weather, because the pacific pattern will remain a dumpster fire, but if you can get a -NAO to last on and start throwing some better things in the mix as time progresses, then things get interesting, so if your a person that’s super impatient, and want to see another early shot at some winter weather, you chose the -EPO the gefs shows, if your going for a better pattern at a more longer term, you want the -NAO to stay
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is definitely kinda of like picking your poison or drug, if you choose the gefs with the -EPO, yes, you may get get a better chance of a winter storm while it happens, and lots of cold, but once it breaks down, you get a ugly ugly pattern with a -PNA and a big southeast ridge, like last year, if you chose a -NAO to last, you are more likely gonna see more seasonal conditions with likely no winter weather, because the pacific pattern will remain a dumpster fire, but if you can get a -NAO to last on and start throwing some better things in the mix as time progresses, then things get interesting, so if your a person that’s super impatient, and want to see another early shot at some winter weather, you chose the -EPO the gefs shows, if your going for a better pattern at a more longer term, you want the -NAO to stay
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... and pray to high heaven for a 10 year miracle ...
 
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