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Pattern Nippy November

SnowNiner said:
Nope. No take backs. -NAO snow blitz come December. He said it. Just own it man, lol.
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Yea he already said so he can’t go back, I see what he is saying but when you have 7k followers you kinda get what you pay for. If you take the Kirk Mellish approach you can’t go wrong.


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SnowNiner said:
Nope. No take backs. -NAO snow blitz come December. He said it. Just own it man, lol.
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Mentions -NAO causing trouble in December and mentions southern sliders near the holidays (aka late Dec) but then says don’t get carried away... sorry but if someone like HM mentions southern sliders, I’m going to get carried away.

But I get it, it’s hard to repeat a blockbuster -NAO wall to wall winter. We shouldn’t expect that.


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Some nice rains this weekend...hopefully this doesn't go poof like last weekend in NC.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_precip_inch-4596800.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Nope. No take backs. -NAO snow blitz come December. He said it. Just own it man, lol.
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The persistent positive atmospheric angular momentum anomaly in the subtropics is definitely eye-opening and it argues for a really active southern stream for the foreseeable future and the next time the MJO comes rolling thru the Central Pacific & Western Hemisphere in about a month or so from now. I can certainly see where HM is coming from regarding a possible southern stream disturbance near or just after the holiday season. A lot of this timing wise depends on how fast this MJO wave dislodges from the Indian Ocean.

Also unrelated but probably an important piece of information to keep in your back pocket later in the winter:

 
Jon said:
Mentions -NAO causing trouble in December and mentions southern sliders near the holidays (aka late Dec) but then says don’t get carried away... sorry but if someone like HM mentions southern sliders, I’m going to get carried away.

But I get it, it’s hard to repeat a blockbuster -NAO wall to wall winter. We shouldn’t expect that.


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He went all "game of thrones" on it with the Winter is Coming declaration! Can't walk that back. lol.

I know what he means and I'm not expecting much honestly (been doing this too long). But this is the internet...horse is out of the barn and we're all weenies.
 
CADEffect said:
6z GFS brings some frigid air for conference championship weekend ill be at the ACC Champ game hope it's not in the teens.


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I'll be in Boone with a lot of Ragin Cajuns visiting. Long as the wind is under 15mph so we can throw the ball, I want complain. Georgia Southern 35-50mph was ridiculous and cost us dearly back on Halloween.
 
Ant is right, it is possible to see a great pattern including a -NAO but it is way too early to actually predict it will happen. Just having it on the table for a change is reason enough to get a little excited just don't go overboard. Jon in a previous post is also correct too, anyone here expecting a wire to wire cold winter are in for a major disappointment. Best we can hope for is some cold air timing just right with precipitation events at times this winter.
 
Don't sleep on the first week of December. May end up with too much of a SER response to anything digging into the SW. However a well timed clipper and polar front with a sheared wave riding through in a split flow and you have a messy early season system

Edit. Not even sure if it's a true split flow
 
SD said:
Don't sleep on the first week of December. May end up with too much of a SER response to anything digging into the SW. However a well timed clipper and polar front with a sheared wave riding through in a split flow and you have a messy early season system

Edit. Not even sure if it's a true split flow
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you got that SER part right, regardless of the rest!
 
SD said:
Don't sleep on the first week of December. May end up with too much of a SER response to anything digging into the SW. However a well timed clipper and polar front with a sheared wave riding through in a split flow and you have a messy early season system

Edit. Not even sure if it's a true split flow
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One of those put down 9-10" two years ago. Another would be just fine.
 
By late next next week, a upper level high builds over the Gulf of Mexico, so late next week (and into parts of early December) it is going to be warm across the east due to this upper level high pushing warm air northeast. Addition to the upper level high, a trough builds over the western states.

With this pattern, this is going to favor storms cutting late this month. As the pattern transitions, storms would start to track underneath the western trough from Baja California and tracking towards Texas. As early December comes around, the upper level high will slowly push east to allow cold air to push further south and east. This is setting up for an icing event, for now. It looks like the -NAO will still be around, so if that upper high gets out of the way, we could see some Miller-A storms as well.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

The map below is just showing on where the winter weather battle zone will be for now. This "battle zone" maybe further northwest, or it maybe right where I placed it on the map. The "battle zone" is all going to depend on that upper level high and how far south and east the trough builds.

EarlyDecOutlook.jpg

We'll see how things start to pan out with this. We'll need to keep an eye on the progression of the upper level high and other factors downstream. Nothing is promising yet, I'm just putting idea's out.
 
WxWatch said:
By late next next week, a upper level high builds over the Gulf of Mexico, so late next week (and into parts of early December) it is going to be warm across the east due to this upper level high pushing warm air northeast. Addition to the upper level high, a trough builds over the western states.

With this pattern, this is going to favor storms cutting late this month. As the pattern transitions, storms would start to track underneath the western trough from Baja California and tracking towards Texas. As early December comes around, the upper level high will slowly push east to allow cold air to push further south and east. This is setting up for an icing event, for now. It looks like the -NAO will still be around, so if that upper high gets out of the way, we could see some Miller-A storms as well.
View attachment 26273

The map below is just showing on where the winter weather battle zone will be for now. This "battle zone" maybe further northwest, or it maybe right where I placed it on the map. The "battle zone" is all going to depend on that upper level high and how far south and east the trough builds.

View attachment 26274

We'll see how things start to pan out with this. We'll need to keep an eye on the progression of the upper level high and other factors downstream. Nothing is promising yet, I'm just putting idea's out.
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That upper level high in the GOM might be the poop like the SER was last year, something to watch for this winter.


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