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Pattern Nippy November

Brick Tamland said:
Why are we looking past December already? Why are we even looking past 7 days? Everyone should know by now if you have been on the weather forums enough that those long range outlooks change and flip flop all the time form day to day.
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Brick you are right. There’s no reason to cancel December even if it tends to be on the warm side, it could end up normal and we could very well have seasonable temps and a storm to boot. But it’s OK to look past 7 days to day 10-15 to get an idea of signals coming up, and the models are largely backing off cold. BUT that doesn’t mean the heat or back off from cold means torch.
1) the heat doesn’t have to last all month just because a few days outside of Day 10 are trending warmer
2) what’s “more likely” doesn’t always happen, look at last year.
3) weather is complicated, especially during months Dec-Feb when the PV is being influenced and we have a long way to go to predict the outcomes (or lack thereof) of SSWEs.




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Jon said:
Brick you are right. There’s no reason to cancel December even if it tends to be on the warm side, it could end up normal and we could very well have seasonable temps and a storm to boot. But it’s OK to look past 7 days to day 10-15 to get an idea of signals coming up, and the models are largely backing off cold. BUT that doesn’t mean the heat or back off from cold means torch.
1) the heat doesn’t have to last all month just because a few days outside of Day 10 are trending warmer
2) what’s “more likely” doesn’t always happen, look at last year.
3) weather is complicated, especially during months Dec-Feb when the PV is being influenced and we have a long way to go to predict the outcomes (or lack thereof) of SSWEs.




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I don't understand the 2nd point you're making here because at least from December's standpoint, it was more likely we were going to end up mild than not last year, and that's what happened in spite of the fact we saw a one hit wonder winter storm in the beginning of the month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't understand the 2nd point you're making here because at least from December's standpoint, it was more likely we were going to end up mild than not last year, and that's what happened in spite of the fact we saw a one hit wonder winter storm in the beginning of the month.
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Yeah I meant in reference to the chance at cold shots and near normal temps/storm chance. Just because we are warm doesn’t mean we don’t get a solid 8-10”. The thought here is when people hear talk about warm Decembers, they cancel the month. Just reassuring brick that’s not the case, at least in my mind.


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You can have a cold 2-3 days and see a winter storm in December. Then torch the rest the month. That’s just typical southeast.


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Webberweather53 said:
I don't understand the 2nd point you're making here because at least from December's standpoint, it was more likely we were going to end up mild than not last year, and that's what happened in spite of the fact we saw a one hit wonder winter storm in the beginning of the month.
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Eric, i respect you as a meteorologist. You do know your stuff. Like i previously mentioned many times, the mjo progression on the different models from dacula's site or cpc site show many different possibilities of where the mjo is going. Most have it in phase 8 and 1 though, which i thought were cold phases. If thats not true, which phases allow for cold weather and stormy in December for us? If any of them. I am probably confused on this i guess. Im sorry.
 
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Jon said:
Yeah I meant in reference to the chance at cold shots and near normal temps/storm chance. Just because we are warm doesn’t mean we don’t get a solid 8-10”. The thought here is when people hear talk about warm Decembers, they cancel the month. Just reassuring brick that’s not the case, at least in my mind.


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Yeah I think as long as the -NAO is there we have a legitimate chance to sneak in a storm before the pattern probably turns on us. The window for us to sneak a storm in seems most likely atm (ironically) in early Dec where we've had substantial hits the last 2 winters in a row.
 
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WxWatch said:
Do not let your guard down for the 23rd-24th time frame, a winter event is possible. I've been keeping track on this ULL that will be developing over the southwestern US by Wednesday/Thursday of this week. This ULL could be a winter storm maker for some across the Southeastern US. On this post, I'm not going to even bother including the GFS, it is a disaster at H5 (vort) This post is going to be focusing on the latest (12z) CMC. The reason why, today's 12z CMC has a much more realistic look up at H5.

Let's take a look,

The ULL is slipping under the northern stream which is dipping south and east, providing the cold air down on the back side of the ULL. Since this is an ULL, it is pulling arctic air pretty far south, which we'll take a look at that later on this post. What I would like to see is, the ULL to be a bit further south which is possible. The exact track of this ULL is unknown as this time.
View attachment 26123


Arctic Air Pulling South
Taking a look at the 850mb temps, as you can see, the ULL has a cold core, also it's pulling arctic air far south. As of now, with this setup, parts of the upper south could get a hammering of snow while some places may get some back side snow from this ULL.View attachment 26124

Over the coming days, I will start focusing on the track of the ULL and rather or not it would track further south, which again is a possibility. I do think there will also be severe weather on the warmer side of the ULL. The factors are indeed coming together for a winter storm to occur for some.
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When you spoke of this yesterday, I noticed it was taping in the northern stream. Now on the cmc it has a good flow from the SS.


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WxWatch said:
Do not let your guard down for the 23rd-24th time frame, a winter event is possible. I've been keeping track on this ULL that will be developing over the southwestern US by Wednesday/Thursday of this week. This ULL could be a winter storm maker for some across the Southeastern US. On this post, I'm not going to even bother including the GFS, it is a disaster at H5 (vort) This post is going to be focusing on the latest (12z) CMC. The reason why, today's 12z CMC has a much more realistic look up at H5.

Let's take a look,

The ULL is slipping under the northern stream which is dipping south and east, providing the cold air down on the back side of the ULL. Since this is an ULL, it is pulling arctic air pretty far south, which we'll take a look at that later on this post. What I would like to see is, the ULL to be a bit further south which is possible. The exact track of this ULL is unknown as this time.
View attachment 26123


Arctic Air Pulling South
Taking a look at the 850mb temps, as you can see, the ULL has a cold core, also it's pulling arctic air far south. As of now, with this setup, parts of the upper south could get a hammering of snow while some places may get some back side snow from this ULL.View attachment 26124

Over the coming days, I will start focusing on the track of the ULL and rather or not it would track further south, which again is a possibility. I do think there will also be severe weather on the warmer side of the ULL. The factors are indeed coming together for a winter storm to occur for some.
Click to expand...
Wx watch, when the euro or gfs gets excited about the chances, color me excited, especially the euro.
 
pcbjr said:
We haven't been out of the low 50's for 3 days and now it's cleared and the stars are out ... the radiator is working ...
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I would have to agree. Hogtown is 46 at 10 PM, which is colder than every reporting station in Georgia!
 
WPC sleeping on the job, not even a low chance of ZR for Virginia on the ice maps.
 
The GEFS has been wildly inconsistent and keeps on flipping between a SE ridge and then a trough due to ridging in Baffin Bay/greenland, I’d still lean warmer tho, many things going against cold anyways A9E6E3F6-BFB7-4106-8EF8-EF01A2D5C919.gif
 
The pattern that we have seen since the beginning of the month has been to keep us below normal to normal at most with temps. Maybe we will warm up eventually, but I am not so sure about a big torch and December being way above normal. I know in the past we have been in the opposite position, where we started warm in November and December, looking in the long range at the models for the colder pattern to materialize, only for it to be kicked further down the road. Just maybe it will be the reverse this winter, with us already starting colder than normal in November, seeing the warm up on the models in the long range, but it taking longer than advertised for the cold pattern to break.
 
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