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Naughty November

I think the only way we will have a chance at any cold air is either if the niña weakens somehow soon or get a SSW at some point and it alters the whole pattern. Otherwise, another long winter upcoming ??
 
I think some of the great ones on here should explain how the goa trough can shift or move out from its current location.
 
I have the seasonal habit of getting into pattern chase mode mid November as we approach Met winter. Like everyone else not excited at all about this winter. There is an ole cliche its never as good as it seems or as bad as it seems, somewhere in the middle reality usually falls. Lets hope thats the case this winter and we can manage a normal/average winter. Course that doesnt leave a lot of meat on the bone to pick for those of us below the 2200 ft mark in the SE.
Anyway Best bet is to watch the TC's now. Obviously with La nina It would help us tremendously to lock in a Posotive PNA, negative EPO. Keeping the PNA in + terriotory is gonna prove difficult at times this season Im afraid. We shall see. Honestly to me its always about the pacific. Not dishing the negative AO/NAO blocking Atlantic side. But below 40 north we need to get the cold air slid down here from Canada 1st and foremost.
My thoughts are I tend to think /remember most recent La Ninas as more northern stream driven. Seems like you constantly observe the jet draped up along the Canadian border flat west to east never buckeling. We tend to stay drier and when we do get clipped by BN air ,its usually a in and out, fast flow, progressive fashion. Hard to get Blocking Atlantic side ( what else is new). Also it seems like the NW flow crowd can score the nickel and dime events easier in La Nina as oppossed to el nino. I'm not an expert but thats what I seem to rememeber observing for NC neck of the woods.

So far the NAO,AO is forecast to go negative, PNA(below) is trending right direction. End result may not yield anything but its all we got.

1605613339540.png
 
NCSNOW said:
I have the seasonal habit of getting into pattern chase mode mid November as we approach Met winter. Like everyone else not excited at all about this winter. There is an ole cliche its never as good as it seems or as bad as it seems, somewhere in the middle reality usually falls. Lets hope thats the case this winter and we can manage a normal/average winter. Course that doesnt leave a lot of meat on the bone to pick for those of us below the 2200 ft mark in the SE.
Anyway Best bet is to watch the TC's now. Obviously with La nina It would help us tremendously to lock in a Posotive PNA, negative EPO. Keeping the PNA in + terriotory is gonna prove difficult at times this season Im afraid. We shall see. Honestly to me its always about the pacific. Not dishing the negative AO/NAO blocking Atlantic side. But below 40 north we need to get the cold air slid down here from Canada 1st and foremost.
My thoughts are I tend to think /remember most recent La Ninas as more northern stream driven. Seems like you constantly observe the jet draped up along the Canadian border flat west to east never buckeling. We tend to stay drier and when we do get clipped by BN air ,its usually a in and out, fast flow, progressive fashion. Hard to get Blocking Atlantic side ( what else is new). Also it seems like the NW flow crowd can score the nickel and dime events easier in La Nina as oppossed to el nino. I'm not an expert but thats what I seem to rememeber observing for NC neck of the woods.

So far the NAO,AO is forecast to go negative, PNA(below) is trending right direction. End result may not yield anything but its all we got.

View attachment 52418
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I've said before I think the PNA is the most crucial of the indices. If we have a negative PNA game over; unless maybe the epo can help.
 
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