Cuban icicle crisis. Congrats, Phil!
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Naughty November
- Thread starter LickWx
- Start date
I think that the GEFS weekly control is ideally what I hope to happen. Warm to favorable pattern around the 10th of December. About the exact opposite of what happens in recent years.
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Trend back to glory, a 50 degree CAD 
Yeah, pass. R/S line already west. Gets wester from there.
Uhhhh I count this as #WedgeWatch
LickWx
Member
Looks very ripe to trend warmer ! NW TREND !Uhhhh I count this as #WedgeWatch
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Strongly suspect a lot of this has to do w/ how the GEFS handles the MJO in the extended range. It's usually too fast, progressive, and strong in the West-Central Pacific but the EPS however likes to hold it too long over the eastern hemisphere. A compromise between the two offers some hope no doubt.
The next pattern I’m flopping for 
If there’s one positive we can take out these maps, it’s that SE Canada snow, really helps build the foundation to a good CAD event 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS ensemble definitely still likes the idea of a CAD event prior to Thanksgiving/ the one we've been talking about for several days now.
Looks like a chilly rain w/ temps in the 40s & 50s in NC
Looks like a chilly rain w/ temps in the 40s & 50s in NC
NCSNOW
Member
Ha no kidding the first thing I thought when I took the dog out was well got a dusting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GEFS as @Myfrotho704_ mentioned earlier trending favorably for pre-Thanksgiving CAD and a cold rain in NC. I can live with that in late November.
Gotta admit though, a 1028 high over Maine on an ensemble mean at 180 hr is pretty impressive
Gotta admit though, a 1028 high over Maine on an ensemble mean at 180 hr is pretty impressive
SimeonNC
Member
This supports my idea of December being best window for wintry this year. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
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SimeonNC
Member
Honestly all the indices seem to be trending in a positive direction in the long term, as I said unless it all goes poof I see no reason to be pessimistic about the next 4-6 weeks.
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Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
I’ll be in Gatlinburg the second week in December. Fingers crossed for an apps rubber ??
?? 
Move the ridge west and Alaskan low over Aleutians and I’m happy 
So you have chosen death
KMA : yes
KMA : yes
Hopefully what we’re seeing @ 500mb in the Arctic out in fantasy land isn’t an indicator to how our winter is going to turn out.. 