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Naughty November

Wouldn't be shocked to see the first frost/freeze of the season on Monday/Tuesday. Really like Tuesday to go low dews in the mid 20s to low 30s in many areas. Think 30 is a good starting point here if we keep a breeze 32-34 if we go calm 26-28
 
Fwiw, 12Z GEFS looks like it will come in much colder for at least the Midwest/Plains/TX vs earlier runs in week 2. Let's see whether or not the SER holds that back later in the run. Will be interesting to see what happens in it.
 
The weeklies do flip the script as we head into the final week of November into December. Goes along with some of HM's musings with a flip in the MJO. Although that persistent trough over Alaska isn't pretty.
View attachment 51164View attachment 51165
Hopefully that snowfall map is in the neighborhood of being right and we see that snowpack build in the northeast US and southeast Canada. It would be good the have a good source region for CAD.
 
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